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India surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous country.
Today, India enjoys a demographic dividend, with the working-age population
(15–60 years) accounting for nearly 60% of the total population. This
demographic advantage is largely rooted in India’s historically high fertility
rates which remained close to 6 between 1950 and 1965 and stayed above 5 for
another decade until the late 1970s. Following aggressive family planning
measures, including sterilization campaigns and widespread awareness
programs, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) steadily declined to around 1.9,
now comparable to several Asian and European countries.
Concerns over declining fertility are not unique to India. Many developed
nations are grappling with similar demographic anxieties. In Hungary, Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán introduced extensive pro-natalist policies, with the
country spending nearly 5.5% of GDP on family support measures. These
included lifetime income tax exemptions for mothers with four or more
children, student loan forgiveness for couples with three or more children,
housing subsidies for newlyweds, and automobile purchase support for large
families. Yet despite these incentives, birth rates in Hungary continue to remain
below replacement levels.
Similarly, in Poland, conservative governments introduced monthly financial
stipends for mothers alongside strict anti-abortion policies aimed at encouraging
childbirth. However, the measures triggered significant social backlash,
including a growing movement among women consciously choosing not to have
children, ultimately contributing to further declines in fertility rates.
These global experiences demonstrate that economic incentives alone rarely
determine fertility outcomes. Cultural, structural, educational, and social factors
play a far more decisive role in influencing childbirth patterns.
In India’s case, rapid urbanization and migration for employment have significantly weakened the traditional joint family structure that historically shared the responsibilities
of child-rearing. As a result, fertility rates remain higher in rural India than in
urban centers.
Parents increasingly find themselves caught between demanding work schedules
and the responsibilities of parenthood, with little institutional or family support.
Rising living costs, expensive education, healthcare expenses, and housing
pressures have transformed parenting into a major economic challenge.
A recent estimate suggests that raising a child in India may cost nearly ₹45 lakh, making
family expansion a difficult decision for many middle-class households.
North–South Divide
India’s average fertility rate of 1.9 marks substantial regional variation.
Northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to record higher
fertility rates of around 3.0 and 2.8 respectively. In contrast, southern and more
economically developed states have witnessed sharp fertility declines. Tamil
Nadu and West Bengal have among the country’s lowest TFRs at approximately
1.3, while Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana hover around 1.5,
levels comparable to those in developed nations such as Denmark.
Women’s Education and Fertility
According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023,
One of the strongest indicators affecting fertility rates is women’s education.
Studies consistently show that TFR is inversely proportional to female
educational attainment. Among women with graduate-level education and
above, fertility rates are significantly lower at around 1.6. For women with no
formal education, the rate rises to 2.2, while among illiterate women it climbs
further to 3.3.
The Andhra Pradesh Case
Ultimately, having a child remains a deeply personal choice that belongs to
women and families — not the state. Questions of underpopulation or overpopulation should largely depend on an individual family’s economic
capability, emotional preparedness, and ability to provide a secure future for
children.
In Andhra Pradesh, serious public health concerns continue to persist.
According to the fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data, nearly
58% of women aged 15–49 in the state are anaemic. The percentage of stunted
children has remained around 31% since 2015–16, while anaemia among
children stands at an alarming 63%.
Against this backdrop, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s proposal to
provide ₹30,000 for a third child and ₹40,000 for a fourth child has been viewed
as more of a political headline than a structural solution. Without addressing
healthcare, maternal nutrition, childcare support systems, affordable housing,
women’s workforce participation, and educational inequality, financial
incentives alone are unlikely to substantially alter fertility trends.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.