New Delhi: With dates for next year’s Bangladesh elections set to be released any day now, the nation faces a political vacuum: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) cannot fully step in without acting chairman Tarique Rahman’s return, the Awami League has lost public credibility and the Jamaat-e-Islami and Islamist groups are aggressively trying to fill the ideological space left behind.
While BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia remains critical in a Dhaka hospital, her son Tarique Rahman remains in London, in self-imposed exile for 17 years and absent at a moment many in his party consider crucial.
Rahman, 60, has said he wants to return but continues to claim that “uncontrollable factors” are preventing him from coming back, even as the Muhammad Yunus interim administration has said it is willing to facilitate his arrival.
“The country’s politics is now extremely polarised. On one side, we see the rise of the Islamo-fascists and their attempts to forcefully take control of everything. On the other side, those who want to respond to them by talking about democracy and liberal democratic values have themselves created a void. People want the BNP to fill that void, but the BNP has been unable to do so,” Asif bin Ali, former journalist and scholar at Georgia State University in the US, told ThePrint.
He pointed out that Rahman’s absence created distrust.
“Making an announcement or speaking live from London is one thing, but showing real faith, shaking hands with people, speaking with ordinary citizens on the streets, praying in mosques, visiting Hindu temples, giving speeches—this physical presence creates hope among people. That place of faith and trust is now weakening. So, this whole question of Tarique’s return to his country becomes central,” Ali said.
In a long post on Facebook on 29 November, Rahman had stated: “Like any child, I also have a strong desire to get the touch of mother in such a crisis.”
“Our family is hopeful that my long anxious wait for homecoming will end as soon as this political reality has reached the expected stage.”
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The BNP conundrum
Rahman left Bangladesh in September 2008, after 17 months in detention under a military-backed caretaker government led by Fakhruddin Ahmed. He left for medical treatment after being given bail.
Since then, he has led the BNP remotely from London, insisting that the corruption charges and convictions he faced in absentia, including a nine-year sentence in 2023 for amassing illegal wealth, were politically motivated attempts to dismantle the opposition.
The fall of the Sheikh Hasina government after a student-led uprising in August 2024 then changed Rahman’s legal position. Between December 2024 and May 2025, the courts acquitted him in all 84 pending cases, including charges tied to the 2004 Dhaka grenade attack, money laundering, sedition, and the Zia Charitable Trust.
And many believed his return was imminent after Rahman himself indicated such. BNP leaders have repeatedly signalled his readiness. Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain reiterated that the government stands ready to assist, even hinting that Rahman may not currently possess a valid passport.
Yet, he remains in London. BNP leaders say they are not worried. “We do not think there will be any issues with either a travel pass or a passport,” party leader Salahuddin Ahmed said in a press conference last week, though he did not confirm whether Rahman holds a Bangladeshi passport at present.
Internally, the BNP seems to be preparing for his return. The party has acquired two bulletproof vehicles and applied for firearms licences for security purposes. With legal and security issues largely cleared, party insiders point instead to international diplomatic hesitation, claiming that “a few powerful countries” have quietly conveyed reservations about Rahman’s return, according to Dhaka Tribune. No officials have clarified which countries or why.
According to Ali, in Bangladesh’s volatile political context, anyone who comes to power faces issues of personal safety.
“We saw this with Bangabandhu (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman), who ultimately lost his life along with his family. Then Zia came to power. After 1975, the situation we are seeing now in Bangladesh is one of the most volatile. In such a context, there may be undeniable threats to Tarique’s life,” Ali said.
He added that earlier, when former Bangladesh President Hussein Muhammad Ershad or Hasina took charge, they also faced threats to their lives, but the situation was different. It was never to the extent that they would necessarily face assassination because the institutions were still functioning, he further said.
“Even when Hasina fled, the institutions ensured she reached the border safely. Today, those institutions are no longer as strong, so concerns about security cannot be dismissed. But even then, with proper planning and government engagement, a solution can be reached,” Ali told ThePrint.
With the elections due early next year, pre-poll surveys by the US-based International Republican Institute show the BNP garnering 33 per cent support, only narrowly ahead of the Jamaat-e-Islami at 29 per cent. Rahman’s absence—after claiming that both he and his mother would campaign in every part of the country—is, therefore, being felt acutely in the party.
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The Jamaat factor
Rahman’s potential return also coincides with a major shift in the BNP’s political orientation.
For decades, the party maintained an uneasy but functional alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami, the nation’s largest Islamist party. The two were united primarily by their opposition to the Awami League.
But that relationship has now changed. Rahman, in virtual remarks earlier this month, invoked the memory of the 1971 Liberation War, and indirectly accused its ally of exploiting religion for political gain.
The Jamaat was opposed to the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 and sided with the Pakistani government. Last year, the interim government of Bangladesh lifted the long-standing ban on the Jamaat and its affiliates.
In his dig at the Jamaat, which he did not name directly, he reportedly said: “The people of this country have already seen them in 1971. They not only killed lakhs of people, but their collaborators also violated countless mothers and sisters. We must never forget this”.
According to Ali, many stakeholders in Dhaka believe that the election may not happen because Rahman is not returning. From the government’s side, however, preparations appear serious.
“The government understands that an election is the only way to transfer power and reach a sustainable, acceptable solution to the current political crisis. It will also become very difficult for the government to govern after February or March, around the anticipated election timeline. Everyone is preparing for elections, and if the government delays or avoids it, massive chaos and power imbalance will follow,” said Ali, quoted earlier.
But the BNP is clearly under duress. Rahman’s return has been anticipated for more than a year now, and he is still not back. This puts enormous pressure on the party.
“His absence is being used by the Jamaat as a propaganda tool. Their message is straightforward: if a leader does not return to his country, how can he lead its people? If he does not return even during his mother’s illness, how will he govern?” said Ali.
“This narrative is aimed directly at Tarique, and it is only going to intensify. The BNP has no effective response. For months they have said he would return. They said once the legal cases are resolved, he would come. Then they mentioned the disenfranchisement case (Tarique was effectively disenfranchised due to convictions in multiple cases, but he has been acquitted is some). But there is still no substantial proof explaining why he isn’t coming back,” he added.
According to Ali, Rahman’s political acceptance will erode if the BNP cannot provide a convincing explanation for his absence. BNP loyalists will still vote for the party, but the real issue is not the loyal voters.
“The real issue is the floating voters—those who do not like the Islamists, those who do not want to vote for an Islamist party, those who are sceptical of the BNP but open to considering it as a liberal democratic option. These floating voters need restored faith if the BNP wants to come to power. If Tarique does not return, the BNP will pay a heavy price, and the void may be filled by Jamaat,” Ali said.
Shifting political landscape
The BNP’s break with the Jamaat marks a shift in their politics post-2024. With the Awami League now banned and Hasina in exile in India, the pluralist centre space is now empty.
The BNP is now attempting to occupy it by rebranding itself as a liberal, democratic platform aimed at the progressives. The party’s recalibration is also an attempt to challenge the Awami League’s long-held control over the narrative of 1971. By denouncing the Jamaat’s wartime role, the BNP aims to reclaim moral ground previously governed by Hasina.
The Awami League maintains it was Hasina’s father Mujibur Rahman who declared independence in 1971, while the BNP insists it was founder Ziaur Rahman who did so before Mujib, whereas the Jamaat claims it is an India-brokered independence.
This division is now very visible. The Awami League is no longer in power, and people still hold deep anger towards it for what happened last year. They expect the Awami League to at least express remorse. That has not happened. Therefore, the Awami League has little influence on the current narrative. The two dominant players shaping the narrative today are BNP and Jamaat, Ali pointed out.
“The Jamaat and Islamist groups hold significant power in building narratives. They have taken a very aggressive stance, whereas the BNP has adopted more of a troubleshooting approach rather than aggressively pushing its own narrative,” he said.
He added that after 5 August last year, the Islamists, Jamaat, and other Islamist groups without formal ties to the Jamaat began attacking core parts of Bangladesh’s national story.
“They attacked the Liberation War narrative, claimed India orchestrated it, claimed 2024 was the ‘real independence’, villainised Bangabandhu, and brought up the Bihari massacre to argue that the Pakistan Army’s actions were reactions rather than aggression. Society did not accept these narratives, especially those who do not support the Islamists. For them, this was a direct attack on the identity of Bangladesh,” he said.
The BNP realised that the Jamaat was pushing its narrative and the apparent public discomfiture over it. In response, it took an opposing stance. And at the same time, issues such as Jamaat’s anti-women position, cadre-based nepotism, and their preference for hiring only Jamaat loyalists—even over qualified civilians—are also factoring into public perception and political calculations, said Ali.
Meanwhile, within the Jamaat itself, there are two apparent categories of leaders: one insists their 1971 narrative is correct, the other does not. Their supporters are confused because leaders within the same party promote contradictory narratives.
“They say one thing to their leaders and another to supporters, aiming to break the established national narrative because in politics, narrative is everything. As long as liberal, democratic storytelling about Bangladesh exists, Jamaat’s goals remain threatened,” Ali noted.
Post the political shift, the Jamaat pushed for sweeping reforms before elections but the BNP demanded early polls and minimal constitutional changes. These strategic differences soon led to open disagreement.
Moreover, new political parties are in the fray. The National Citizen Party (NCP) now aims to compete for the same centrist-liberal voters the BNP hopes to attract. The BNP no longer presents itself as a centre-right counterweight to the Awami League, it now aims to become a broad democratic coalition, capable of absorbing disillusioned Awami League voters.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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