New Delhi: Former US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House may be “sealed” with the recent assassination attempt on him at a rally in Pennsylvania Saturday, say experts. Trump was already faring well in opinion polls following US President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance on 28 June which triggered calls within the Democratic Party for the 81-year-old politician to step down as the party’s presidential candidate.
Trump appears to have gained political capital for his reaction to the crisis — pumping one fist in the air with a resolute expression on his face and a bloodied ear while Secret Service agents surround him. Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, reported Sunday morning that Trump’s election odds hit an all-time high of 70 percent.
The FBI has identified the shooter as 20-year Thomas Matthew Crooks who is reportedly a registered Republican voter, which may complicate the way the Trump campaign uses the incident as part of electioneering efforts.
Nonetheless, the incident has already garnered sympathy for Trump across the political spectrum. Biden and former president Barack Obama have denounced such “political violence”, while others like Tesla CEO Elon Musk have now openly endorsed the businessman-turned-politician for president.
I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery pic.twitter.com/ZdxkF63EqF
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2024
Also read: NATO has fallen—from winning the Cold War to protecting itself from Trump
‘Worrying sign for Democrats’
Former envoy to the US Meera Shankar pointed out that until Biden’s poor performance in the presidential debate “the two candidates were running neck and neck in the national polls but Trump was ahead in most of the swing states”.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report recently moved three key swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, to “Lean Republican” in its latest analysis Tuesday.
The battleground states expected to decide the November election are Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.
Before the shooting, election polls this week indicated that Trump had a slight edge over Biden. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Thursday indicated that Americans are divided 46-47 percent between Biden and Trump, respectively, if the election were held today. The same poll found that two-thirds of Americans, including Democratic registered voters, say he should step aside as his party’s candidate.
Meanwhile, a report from the Pew Research Center Thursday indicated that Trump holds a 4 percentage points lead over Biden among registered voters with 44 percent saying that if the elections were held today, they would vote for Trump, while 40 percent would choose Biden. About 15 percent expressed support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“One has to wait to see whether Biden will be persuaded to step down as the Democratic candidate or will continue on…. This should be a worrying sign for the Democrats,” Shankar told ThePrint.
This week, Biden reiterated that he would not step down as the Democratic presidential candidate despite apprehensions about his mental sharpness and whether he can carry on for four more years. However, a report by NBC said the assassination attempt on Trump has for now halted any efforts to replace Biden as the nominee.
Asked if the assassination attempt will bolster Trump’s campaign, former ambassador to the US, Ronen Sen, told ThePrint: “Certainly, it will. With Biden’s mental acuity continuing to weigh him down, Trump’s relative agility and quick reflexes during the attack may add to his present edge. Assassination bids on US presidential candidates is an unfortunate legacy. But I am doubtful if this incident will reduce the traditional influence of the National Rifle Association (NRA) on elections.”
The NRA, one of the largest lobbying organisations in the world, has traditionally backed pro-gun election candidates. Since 2010, it has funnelled over $140 million into the campaigns of pro-gun election candidates, according to data from Washington DC-based non-profit Open Secrets.
‘Symbol of resistance
According to Harsh V. Pant, Professor of International Relations with King’s India Institute and Observer Research Foundation Vice-President, the shooting incident has cast a “dark shadow” over the US just three years after the country witnessed a violent attack on the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, in January 2021.
“This is only going to help Trump’s candidacy, which in any case was getting strong because of the vulnerabilities on the Biden campaign. The Republicans will use this to come together as a more cohesive party and to make Trump a symbol of resistance,” he told ThePrint.
Trump’s campaign is expected to use as much political mileage out of the assassination attempt going forward, given his long-time promises to “drain the swamp” in Washington DC and fight the “Deep State”.
The former president also secured a major victory earlier this month when the US Supreme Court passed a verdict stating that he has immunity for official acts in a case involving his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Also read: 90 mins is a long time in politics. Trump-Biden debate may be the push Democratic Party needed