Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to secure a resounding victory, with polls showing her party on track to emerge from Sunday’s parliamentary election with a standalone majority in the lower house.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party could win 300 seats by itself in the 465-seat house, according to an exit poll by public broadcaster NHK. Together with its junior partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the LDP-led ruling coalition may even secure a two-thirds majority, NHK said. A super majority in the lower house would enable the coalition to overrule opposition in the upper house on draft legislation.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi At An Election Rally In Saitama
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), speaks at an LDP election rally in Kawagoe, Saitama Prefecture, Japan, on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. Traders are bracing for increased volatility as the Feb. 8 lower house election approaches.
Heading into the election Takaichi had a razor-thin majority of 233 in the lower house. She staked her job on the outcome of the snap election, saying she would step down if her ruling coalition failed to win a majority.
The projected result would mean Takaichi’s gamble on an early action after less than four months as prime minister has paid off handsomely, just seven months after her ruling party lost control of both houses of parliament.
The bold move and the projected scale of victory will draw comparisons with former LDP premiers Shinzo Abe and Junichiro Koizumi, who similarly reinvigorated the ruling party with decisive leadership after years of drift.
A majority for the LDP represents a clear vote in favor of Takaichi and her policies including bold spending plans and an assertive stand on the international stage.
Japanese Voters Cast Ballots In Lower House Election
Voters cast their ballots for the lower house election at a polling station in Tokyo on Feb. 8. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg
Investors have already been positioning for a decisive victory for the LDP, scooping up Japanese stocks and selling the yen and government bonds, as they expect an emboldened Takaichi to ramp up spending and investment to support the economy, while possibly slowing down the Bank of Japan’s pace of interest rate hikes. Depending on the final outcome, the so-called Takaichi trade may either accelerate or unwind.
One of the leading issues in the election is a cost-of-living crunch for families dealing with the first consistent bout of inflation in a generation. Both the LDP and the main opposition party the Centrist Reform Alliance favor lowering the sales tax on food to zero to help households, but the LDP is looking at a temporary measure while the CRA wants the move to be permanent.
“The hit from our monthly food bill is big,” said Yutaka Furusawa, a 58-year-old company employee in Tokyo, noting the rising share food takes up in his household’s expenses.
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He said he was voting for Takaichi’s party candidate in his local single seat constituency. Like others are likely to do, though, he opted for a smaller opposition party, Team Mirai, in the proportional representation segment of the vote.
“I’ve got more expectations for her, than the previous prime minister, though I don’t expect any drastic change,” Furusawa said. “I hope she wins enough to secure a stable administration so she isn’t short-lived.”
The LDP’s loss of its longtime coalition partner Komeito to what is now the CRA was initially expected to have more of a detrimental impact on the election, given that the party’s backing from religious group Soka Gakkai delivered solid votes for the LDP in the past.
But earlier surveys suggested otherwise, with the hurriedly formed CRA struggling to appeal to voters. The NHK exit poll send the CRA’s tally of seats in the lower house may halve.
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