New Delhi: In another sign of how tight the Trump-Harris race for the US presidency is is, Republican candidate Donald Trump is now ahead of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, a New York Times/Siena poll shows. This is Trump’s best performance in the three swing states.
According to the poll, published Monday, Trump is leading by five points in Arizona, four in Georgia, and three in North Carolina. On average, he performed five points better in the poll conducted between 17 and 21 September than he did during the last polling in these states in mid-August.
At the time, Harris gained a relatively small boost in popularity from her performance in the presidential debate, the NYT said. Her anticipated projected lead was likely foiled by the second assassination attempt on Trump.
According to the Monday poll, 55 percent of the respondents said they believed that Trump could do a better job in managing the economy than Harris (42 percent). 56 percent of respondents said individuals should have the right to decide their gender identity and 62 percent supported same-sex marriage. Abortion rights, one of the issues Harris is banking on, was a top issue only for 16 percent of respondents.
In 2020, former president Trump had lost Georgia and Arizona to Biden by a small margin of votes, winning the support of the North Carolina electorate. In the upcoming November elections, among the battleground states—where both Republicans and Democrats have a chance of winning—the results in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia could “make or break the election”, according to the NYT report.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is leading by five points, according to a Spotlight PA/MassINC poll.
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Polarised country, economy main issue
The results of the opinion polls highlight the unpredictability of the tight Trump-Harris race, with constant fluctuations in poll numbers.
For instance, on the latest NBC News poll, released Sunday, Harris was polling five points ahead of Trump nationally with an advantage among women, Black, and Hispanic voters by almost 21, 78, and 19 poll points respectively. The interviews for this poll were conducted between 13 and 17 September.
Still, both candidates remain deeply unfavourable as demonstrated by a Gallup poll conducted between 3 and 15 September. The two candidates—with Trump at 46 percent and Harris at 44 percent—are rated nearly identically in favourability, but remain below the 50 percent threshold.
Nevertheless, Trump’s ratings were better than what they were in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Gallup added, with Harris, too, doing better than President Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton in the last two elections.
A significant number of those polled had no concrete opinions about either of the vice-presidential candidates—Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. About one in five US adults do not yet have an opinion on the Democratic candidate, Walz (19 percent), or his rival Vance (17 percent), the report said.
According to national polls, the economy and inflation are the top issues for voters, with immigration and abortion rights trailing. Polls also show a wide gender gap, with men more likely to support Trump and women Harris. While Trump has a 12 point-lead among men, Harris has a 21-point lead among women voters, according to the NBC poll. With women more likely to vote in large numbers, according to the report, it adds another layer to Harris’ chances of a victory.
Concerns have also been raised over the possibility that the polls are wrong. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, opinion polls were ultimately inaccurate after they underestimated Republican support. Questions have also been raised over the transparency of data sources and interview methods.
(Edited by Sanya Mathur)