The history of developing treatments and vaccines for two deadly coronaviruses — Ebola & Zika — isn't encouraging and there’s no guarantee COVID-19 will be different.
According to the Ministry of Human Resource Development data, 23,000 Indian students are studying in China and of this, 21,000 are pursuing medicine — as of 2019.
Although research for a cure is going on at breakneck speed globally, the Modi government is choosing to focus on ayurveda and homoeopathy to prevent coronavirus infection.
The move, expected by month-end, will allow consumers to buy medicines by uploading images of prescriptions issued by registered medical practitioners.
The graduation is meant to bolster the legacy and legitimacy of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, even as the real-world preparedness lagged behind the glossy narrative.
Indonesia delegation led by Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin visited BrahMos facility & met with top officials & undertook a detailed briefing on the missile system.
It is a brilliant, reasonably priced, and mostly homemade aircraft with a stellar safety record; only two crashes in 24 years since its first flight. But its crash is a moment of introspection.
Governments have to take and unpopular decisions. In mid-March, lockdown was the only remedy to stop the march of Covid 19. But, unfortunately, the prime minister does not offer any succour. He demands, demands and demands from the people, but gives back nothing. This was the time for the central government to losen its purse strings and help people with no savings. Is there a guarantee that after 3rd May, corona won’t resume its march across the country? While extending the lockdown from 15th, some circumspection should have been used to relax it at least in regions where the spread of corona is not alarming, or is under control. Extension of lockdown is like police lathicharge – caning everyone insight.
Shekhar Gupta is a slave of Congress dynasty and will write anything criticizing Modi. Had Modi announced a complete lifting of the lock down, Shelar Gupta would be the first to start jumping up and down and shouting from the rooftop why the lockdown is being lifted. Such is this jackass- speaking in a soft jesterlike meek voice waving his hands, putting up a facade of intelligence and scholarly attitude while his mind and heart are dark, filled with utter hatred for Modi, BJP and RSS. Full of duplicity, sheer cunningness with no honesty, no integrity.
As per Central Surveillance Unit,Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, NCDC,Delhi – Seasonal Influenza (H1N1),for year 2017 — Cases – 38811; Deaths- 2270 and as on 23.02.2020 for year 2020,the Cases – 1132; Deaths- 18 ( Excluding W.Bengal since report awaited from W.Bengal).
This data is available with Government ,hope the Government takes balanced and Wise decision.
India was always a Colonial-Communist hybrid State with vicious senseless cops, no credible Governance and woefully inadequate medical facilities. Lock-Down? Fascism is second nature!
Unfortunately, with inadequate medical and testing facilities, a total lockdown was perhaps the only viable solution. Senseless Extension will damage the economy.
I think if more tight lockdown is the solution for more 21 days. If we allow even a single movement then it could be catastrophic. No economy or GDP will survive longer if the people behind it start dying. This first lockdown just provided a window to india for preparing its strategy and cases are being just identified and loosening the lockdowdown in any form green,blue, or any other color will make the situation worse. Further, we should see that cases are not declining its increasing.
shekhar gupta – you are the most stupid , arrogant journalist on the face of this country.
you will do anything to oppose the decisions made by this government.
its a shame. coronavirus count is heading 1000 above per day and you are discussing why lockdown is not a correct option , people are dying.
its a utter waste of time even to discuss your opinions.
Shekar Gupta is funded by Corrupt Congress Family who have looted us out crore’s of our money.I just saw Modiji’s speech for extension of lock down till 3rd May,2020.Manmohan could not have given such a powerful and convince us to follow the guidelines.Manmohan was/is a lame duck and cannot give a speech without Family’s approval.
I feel people always crib about the government irrespective of the country. Only because “intelligent” brains of the country always have something to comment on government decisions – either negative or positive.
Firstly, it is always easy to comment on the results of the action taken for an unknown research. My question to those people – what if lifting the lockdown won’t work? What if people of India won’t follow the common sense rules after the uplift.
On another argument for suicide and hunger death – Every country is like system, you can’t drive a car without gasoline/diesel, engine, brackes, transmission, tires. And even you are not supposed to drive it even with deteriorated clutch plates because you will impose the threat to others.
Last argument for South Korea fruitful actions – they were prepared from the negatives of the recently MERS spread in 2015. And, there population is also a factor here because they tracked down each and every contact person through GPS algorithms that they “successfully” developed in last 3-4 years. SK changed their privacy laws to get this done.
In conclusion, I am not justifying the government actions and not even giving my intakes on what should be done to get the economy going keeping the miserable numbers low. But if you are thinking of poor then also think how they would follow the sense and the guidelines after the lift up. You can’t have a full proof solution in 3-4 paragraph article. But still if you think you have an awesome, outstanding way out then I would definitely encourage you to somehow connect with the government team to convey your idea. Writing an article will not change the situation but only create a sense division between people’s thinking.
Total lockdown was never the answer. Once you start total , it is extremely difficult to go back. Selective hot spot kind of approch should have been applied. Gated globe trotting Indians should have been prevented from giving the virus to their brethren as well as to outside the gate Indians.
Lockdown is just like taking full course of antibiotics. If you stop taking antibiotic before completion of the full course, chances are very high that disease will not be cured and will be more harmful to patient. Therefore, if 14 more days of lockdown is required, just do it. Ignore ifs and butts of librandus who have nothing else to offer
SOLUTION APPROACH :
Whatever solution is proposed will require large sums of money.
Central govt doesn’t have money, because Indian economy was in general ward in hospital before pandemic. And after pandemic it is in coma and organs are failing. Indian economy is now in intensive care unit. In such as only option is for everyone to shoulder responsibilities.
Retired people, middle class, sportspeople & actors, industrialist, MPs, MLAs etc. are now contributing funds for fight against Covid-19.
HOW ABOUT CONTRIBUTION BY POLITICAL PARTIES THAT HAVE COLLECTED FUNDS DIRECTLY OR THROUGH ELECTORAL BONDS?
Aren’t Political Parties farmed to Serve citizens of India? JUST KEEP Rs 100 or LESS for POLITICAL PARTY activities and DONATE REST equally TO ALL STATES and UTs for preparation and fight against pandemic.
Minor correction :
Aren’t Political Parties farmed to Serve citizens of India? JUST KEEP Rs 100 Crore LESS for POLITICAL PARTY activities and DONATE REST equally TO ALL STATES and UTs for preparation and fight against pandemic
All was in control but then came jamaat … And now we are in situation. But you missed this point, stone pelting, the thoo jihad. You hvnt done analysis on why only one particular community is having highest contribution to the total count? You missed all these points. Other ppls also doing some stupidity but they are not spreading COVD19.
No country has a perfect model available to deal with such situation, its first time for all nations, small or big. There will be mistakes at all levels and there will be learnings.
Further the economy will survive if humans managed to survive.
It is too early to know if the lockdown has done anything.Cases have started rising exponentially in high population density pockets and South Korea has shown the world that a lockdown is not the solution,but early diagnosis of cases with isolation and contact tracing is.
To put the threat from this virus into perspective, we should remember that over 400,000 people a year die of TB in India and around 250,000 die of Malaria. Covid has a mortality rate of less than 1% and pominantly affects people over the age of 70.It is not surprising that it kills people in their thousands in Europe and America with much older population than India with much higher life expectancy than India.In Italy ,nearly a quarter of people are over 65,whereas in India,this is just over 5% and the median age of the Indian population is 25. So,it was unlikely to affect India in a big way so long as strict contact tracing and isolation were undertaken as Korea showed the world(which did not have any lockdown).Was any of this taken into consideration before imposing a lock down on a country the size of a continent and putting the livelihood of millions at risk?
No,because it would not make him look decisive on TV.It is like the Wild West.First shoot,then ask questions.
The trouble with the current PM is that all major decisions are taken with the sole purpose of how good it makes him look for the TV cameras and as PR exercise. He likes to ride the tiger and then struggles to get off it.There is no exit plan or strategy.We saw that with demonetisation,GST,Article 370,CAA and NRC etc and now this. Till the supine media and the public start to ask some tough questions,things are only going to get worse.
You are absolutely right. This PM is only fit for doing drama.
Good analysis. But my problem with this analysis are multifold.
Firstly, there was hardly a data on vivid to figure out a response. Looking at Italy or china would have hardly made a change in execution strategy. You simply don’t shut down a trillion dollar economy based on a risk. Like the author rightfully implies every decision is economically measured. Shutting down india for 2 cases without the benefit of hindsight would have been considered widely stupid by the same intellectuals.
The ‘right’ parameter was probably a previous disease which would be Sars whose impact on India had been limited.
Plus apart from shutting down there was hardly response left in govt’s kitty. You can try shutting down your borders but you just need 1 stupid person you bring back to break quarantine and you are screwed. Even the USA was aware that covid would reach there even after closing their borders.
While the author is looking at economic factors, I think unless he can bring the numbers to the forefront, his analysis is simply futile. These situations are complex and complex situations have different perspectives. Just taking the one you like is not neutral. I could argue the opposite point if and when the death tolls hits 10k post removing the lockdown.
I feel this analysis misjudges that this is in the same vein as that of 2016 demonetization drive. Since none of the readers or self proclaimed analysts have a true idea of the country’s medical infra, economic weight and its risk bearing capabilty and the nature of the virus, it is best to leave it to the people sitting in the driving seat. Showcasing intellectual capabilities here is akin to reading patterns without seeing the complete picture. You will end up simply seeing what you want to see.
Total lockdown is killing livelihood and hence life too. But opening it will kill life exponentially. Life is always the first priority but livelihood cannot be segregated for long. Mass testing along with isolation and treatment is the only real remedy right now. Partial lockdown and opening it gradually is the only way to save both life and livelihood , otherwise livelihood will kill much more life
Extremely well articulated opinion, with a bit of spicy undercurrent of analogies. I think this Central government (just like other democratic governments around the world) thinking is along similar lines of gradual opening because of the economic and social cost of this pandemic, especially on the poor and middle class. I read that this government is thinking of gradual opening of areas based on Red, Yellow and Green zones categorization. But a two week across the nation extension with very few exceptions should be the way to go, else all efforts thus far will go in vain. Looking further, the most important consideration for all this is the state of literacy among the masses to follow directives. Where its weak and poor it is better to rule with a dikat and overwhelming shutdown for the greater good. In fact, all the ills of the Indian society can be squarely place upon illiteracy, which allows allows opinion journalists and the so-called intelligentsia get away with truly counterproductive but apparently populist prescriptions.
In no factory workers stand cheek by jowl. So, all factories should be opened up. With extra care that all workers should wear masks, and try to maintain physical distance. In factory canteens, all the workers should take extra care to wash their hand thoroughly before and after lunch or on the job tea breaks. Or tea breaks should be abolished because there can be no facility for thorough hand washing. Big companies can ferry their workers in their buses, making extra rounds to ensure spaced out seating or standing. In local trains in Bombay, it should be made mendatory that only factory workers will travel, and that too on alternate days. This will easily reduce the traffic in locals by less than one fourth, so again masks +, spacing can be effective. Same way workers should be allowed in agricultural fields because there it is even easier to maintain physical spacing.
Factory managers should be told to ask their workers on alternate days and assure them that they will get full salary. This should not be seen as a big burden by factory owners because the wage bill is anyway only about 10% of a product’s cost. This way at least 50% of production will be achieved which will go up gradually as the virus eases out by Bajrangbali’s kindness. Aur iss tarah se yeh bura waqt bhi guzar jayega. When good time is not for ever, why will the bad time be for ever? Is God so unkind?
56″ failed 130 crore proud Indians by yielding to the arm twisting act of his best friend (as per his claim, but don’t know how Trump feels about semi-literate’s overture). He also failed to provide the needful aid to neighbour country, of whose bonds are closure to the hearts of 130 crore citizens. It is very clear that 56″ has lost his control and operated now by selfish courtiers!
56″ has failed. Good. What would you do now? I suggest if you are in India, you can jump from your house top and set an example for other 56″ haters to emulate.
“But the graph isn’t rising even geometrically, forget exponentially.”
that is not true. the graph is rising exponentially.
putting the samething in different way –
1. a linear graph in a logarithmic scale is an exponential graph.
2. when something gets doubled after a fixed time (for india’s case around 4 days) it is an exponatial increase.
just from the graph, even the effect of lockdown is not apparent. may be increaded testing needs to be taken into account.
ps; in generel you keep really excellent journalistic standard . keep up the good work. and thanks to you and your team.
That’s right!! It’s better to die of the virus than to die of hunger.. or commit suicide because of a business going bust, or a crop having no harvesters or buyers!!
This has been a season of chronologies. Most replicate those of horror films. The first incident is dismissed as a coincidence and explained away. After the second, you know something is wrong. By the third one, you know the monster is out to get you!!
Four non – bhakts, it would be CAA-NRC- Delhi riots. There’s also Jaamatis doing stupid things like others from all religions all over the world, including the BJP in MP at the very same time.. then BJP’s IT Cell, MPs and Modi Media calling it Corona Jihad.. and eventually Muslims getting attacked. For bhakts it would be Rahul Gandhi’s warning on Feb 12.. 1.5 months of jabba-jabba.. followed by Modi becoming the original Pappu as the deaths rise!
There have also been a few scary ones for all patriotic Indians. PPE export banned on Jan 31.. Gov’t placing orders only 5 weeks later.. and doctors wearing raincoats, with those that have PPEs being asked to recycle them! Then there’s Janata Curfew on March 22.. BJP getting power in MP on 23rd.. Lockdown announced on 24th.. (I don’t buy the argument that 2 positives in India would make more alarm bells ring than thousands of deaths in developed countries!!!)
But the scariest chronology of all is the announcement of relief measures after the lockdown, because the third is yet to unfold: 1) relief package of less than 1% of GDP ( which if I’m not mistaken, includes MGNREGA wages!!)
2) Diya, ghar aur butt jalao
3) ………….??
State capacity and public finances cannot support an extended lockdown. Relatively well off Mumbaikars are finding it difficult to get daily essentials. The woes of health workers are well known. Punjab has found a way to keep its wheat procurement going, despite extending the lockdown by a fortnight. The government should focus on the hotspots for the medical response and slowly allow the rest of the country to open up for economic activity, led by manufacturing. 2. Thousands of migrant textile workers coming out on the streets of Surat last night, demanding that they be paid their arrears and permitted to return to their villages shows that social unrest could become a big problem. For six years, the economy has been neglected, left to its own devices, when it was not being damaged. We must now chew the grapes of wrath.
Whatever decision the Union Govt takes, I hope they clearly communicate reasons for the same and the data on which the decision is based. Also we would like to know plans for economic revival and means to enable us to keep our jobs and pay our bills. Whatever has been put up so far in public is either borrowed from previous dispensation. (bank transfers to poor) or grossly inadequate (temporary moratorium with escalating interest which has to be borne in 3 months time) How are we going to keep our jobs, pay EMI and school fees, save for yet another rainy day. Already paycuts have been instituted and salaries delayed. Serious work is needed on the govt’s part.
Yes, every war is fought with some strategies and with theater to theater tactics. Every war is closely monitored by the veteran commanders sitting 24 hours in war-room. As to get optimum results from the war, it is not necessary to fire
indiscriminately on every front or start and keep on bombardment on whole of the cities. The strategic targeting like Balkot gives good desirable outcomes — to show off your power and determination and results in gains politically also. So the time has come to give heed to what SG ,sir has written and area-specific restrictions can be planned and implemented. Results will be good, if not better.
Way back in December 1985, Saint Scholar Giani Niranjan Singh Ji Shiromani Kathakar, said, “ Come to the turn of the century, the economy of the world will start to go downhill.”
To the question, “ Why?” the Saint Scholar replied, “ We will be moving from the Age of Falsehood to the Age of Righteousness.”
To another question, “ If the economy of the world will go downhill, which country will come up?”
Saint Scholar replied, “India.”
The questioner asked, “Why?”
Saint Scholar replied, “ Land on which deep meditation took place will thrive. Other countries will have a hard time.”
Which is probably the reason why India is not seriously impacted by the coronavirus.
well said India is rising through corona spread as its population will go down and economy will boom there will be only billionaire in the country.
I agree with the analysis. Blanket extension of the lockdown may not be advisable. However, too liberal relaxation is also a big no. The numbers are rising fast and Covid-19 seems to be a tricky and deceptive customer. Complacency is the last thing that we want. Some sort of balancing act is required. Now where is the golden mean and how the balance can be achieved is a moot point. This requires lot of data collection and in-depth district-wise analysis. Another important aspect is that the Agri sector simply cannot remain standstill. In north India, rabbi crops need to be harvested and marketed.These include wheat, mustard, lentil, maize, chilies etc. In Maharashtra, farmers who grow perishable vegetables do not find market for their produce. Fruit and flower growers are adversely affected. In Maharashtra, export of 35000 tonnes of grapes is stuck due to Covid-19 spread. The same fate awaits the famous Alphonso mangoes from the Konkan area and Rose export from Mahatshtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Domestic market for roses is as good as dead. These are very capital intensive crops and lakhs of Rupees invested by farmers are simply sunk. So, where is the Sanjivani booty, I don’t know. Lockdown will have to be extended, this is the given. But what are the qualifications and exemptions is to be seen.
We have two issues – saving both lives and livelihood. Both of these are important and it is not a debate as these are interdependent. Now let us try to apply your concept of Sanjivani Booti & Hanuman’s mountain or Surgical Strike and Carpet Bombing in the language of PM Modiji. Let us keep in mind there is no vaccine or cure other than testing, tracking, targeted isolation etc.
In the case of saving lives we are neither doing required amount of testing nor enough PPE are available for health care workers. So we are not able to do targeting and don’t have data. This is why we are getting conflicting reports about community transmission. This impacts what should be optimal strategy about lifting lockdown.
In the case of livelihood, you have a situation of vicious loop demand and supply. Now we have added finance crisis and crisis of trust/confide to the vicious loop. Hence, we can’t provide stimulus like US or Germany and other countries.
All these things tell us that PM Modi’s govt has neither Sanjivani Booti nor Hanuman’s mountain. We are left to our fate left or Ram Bharose as some call it.
Don’t worry, citizens of India that will find solution even though it will be slow. Only thing is central govt shouldn’t come in the way of implementing good ideas. We don’t have issues ministers watching Ramayana or playing antakshri as we don’t have much expectation from them. I am sure in near future all Indians will appreciate working of building of India that was started by Pandit Nehru and others.
Hotspot containment following ramped up testing, identifying infection free zones to lift the lockdown for economic activities to resume. This was the model suggested by the economist Ms. Ravi. You seem to be following her to the t. This plan of action appears to be the most logical and effective. Believing the government’s head is screwed right, they may follow it with minor modifications.
A failing economy would kill off more people, would be drastic set back for the country and just massively lower standards of living for a long long time.
The print….please don’t publish any article without thinking…
Extension of Lockdown is so necessary…don’t u care for human lives….rather u care only for economy….your writer Shekhar Gupta is even more idiot … being a writer he doesn’t know what to write
sir the economy should also be considered; a severe lockdown could crumble the economy leading to harsh situations – mass unemployment, overloaded healthcare system, i.e a halt in your life services, then what about people who are less than your economical-financial status. The best solution as of now is a staggered lockdown wherein only hotspot areas are controlled seriously especially during May-June because if this continues till July-August, Covid 19 won’t be the only problem
Idiots think they know everything about idiocy.. they only stupidity they don’t know anything about is their own!!
In 2016, more than 11,000 farmers committed suicide.. add a lockdown with hampered procurement, no labour for harvest, and the numbers will shoot up!! Maybe double or triple!!
If the virus doesn’t kill you, the lockdown will!!
Sir,you may be living in your comfort zone and not understand tbe sufferings of the poor millions. Virus is a grave concern but economy too needs to be looked into.
I totally agree with you .. he is a big time idiot and a useless writer who dribble words which is of less worth. I think he has nothing to write so he write some shit…USA thought about economy now drowning in dead bodies & you have Italy. Economy exist only when people exist .. 🙂 . Especially during such time.. I expect people to use a little bit of their brain and good thought to make people understand the need for extension else this effort of 21 days Lock down will go utter useless.
Anyways.. if corona virus number goes ahead in a country like India , We can estimate more than 2lakh + death minimum…
For all those thinking about farmers.. kindly don’t bargain in market next time when you buy veggies.. least you can do to respect them.. & also not to waste food.
You deserve a Pulitzer Prize for writing an essay on India’s Covid-19 crisis without even mentioning the words ‘Tablighi Jamaat’ . . . ! 😀
Governments have to take and unpopular decisions. In mid-March, lockdown was the only remedy to stop the march of Covid 19. But, unfortunately, the prime minister does not offer any succour. He demands, demands and demands from the people, but gives back nothing. This was the time for the central government to losen its purse strings and help people with no savings. Is there a guarantee that after 3rd May, corona won’t resume its march across the country? While extending the lockdown from 15th, some circumspection should have been used to relax it at least in regions where the spread of corona is not alarming, or is under control. Extension of lockdown is like police lathicharge – caning everyone insight.
P u baharach Bus saw suru kab ho ge
Shekhar Gupta is a slave of Congress dynasty and will write anything criticizing Modi. Had Modi announced a complete lifting of the lock down, Shelar Gupta would be the first to start jumping up and down and shouting from the rooftop why the lockdown is being lifted. Such is this jackass- speaking in a soft jesterlike meek voice waving his hands, putting up a facade of intelligence and scholarly attitude while his mind and heart are dark, filled with utter hatred for Modi, BJP and RSS. Full of duplicity, sheer cunningness with no honesty, no integrity.
As per Central Surveillance Unit,Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, NCDC,Delhi – Seasonal Influenza (H1N1),for year 2017 — Cases – 38811; Deaths- 2270 and as on 23.02.2020 for year 2020,the Cases – 1132; Deaths- 18 ( Excluding W.Bengal since report awaited from W.Bengal).
This data is available with Government ,hope the Government takes balanced and Wise decision.
India was always a Colonial-Communist hybrid State with vicious senseless cops, no credible Governance and woefully inadequate medical facilities. Lock-Down? Fascism is second nature!
Unfortunately, with inadequate medical and testing facilities, a total lockdown was perhaps the only viable solution. Senseless Extension will damage the economy.
I think if more tight lockdown is the solution for more 21 days. If we allow even a single movement then it could be catastrophic. No economy or GDP will survive longer if the people behind it start dying. This first lockdown just provided a window to india for preparing its strategy and cases are being just identified and loosening the lockdowdown in any form green,blue, or any other color will make the situation worse. Further, we should see that cases are not declining its increasing.
shekhar gupta – you are the most stupid , arrogant journalist on the face of this country.
you will do anything to oppose the decisions made by this government.
its a shame. coronavirus count is heading 1000 above per day and you are discussing why lockdown is not a correct option , people are dying.
its a utter waste of time even to discuss your opinions.
Shekar Gupta is funded by Corrupt Congress Family who have looted us out crore’s of our money.I just saw Modiji’s speech for extension of lock down till 3rd May,2020.Manmohan could not have given such a powerful and convince us to follow the guidelines.Manmohan was/is a lame duck and cannot give a speech without Family’s approval.
I feel people always crib about the government irrespective of the country. Only because “intelligent” brains of the country always have something to comment on government decisions – either negative or positive.
Firstly, it is always easy to comment on the results of the action taken for an unknown research. My question to those people – what if lifting the lockdown won’t work? What if people of India won’t follow the common sense rules after the uplift.
On another argument for suicide and hunger death – Every country is like system, you can’t drive a car without gasoline/diesel, engine, brackes, transmission, tires. And even you are not supposed to drive it even with deteriorated clutch plates because you will impose the threat to others.
Last argument for South Korea fruitful actions – they were prepared from the negatives of the recently MERS spread in 2015. And, there population is also a factor here because they tracked down each and every contact person through GPS algorithms that they “successfully” developed in last 3-4 years. SK changed their privacy laws to get this done.
In conclusion, I am not justifying the government actions and not even giving my intakes on what should be done to get the economy going keeping the miserable numbers low. But if you are thinking of poor then also think how they would follow the sense and the guidelines after the lift up. You can’t have a full proof solution in 3-4 paragraph article. But still if you think you have an awesome, outstanding way out then I would definitely encourage you to somehow connect with the government team to convey your idea. Writing an article will not change the situation but only create a sense division between people’s thinking.
Another Covidiot with a platform to spread intellectual bullshit. Stay inside Mr Gupta – stay safe
Total lockdown was never the answer. Once you start total , it is extremely difficult to go back. Selective hot spot kind of approch should have been applied. Gated globe trotting Indians should have been prevented from giving the virus to their brethren as well as to outside the gate Indians.
Lockdown is just like taking full course of antibiotics. If you stop taking antibiotic before completion of the full course, chances are very high that disease will not be cured and will be more harmful to patient. Therefore, if 14 more days of lockdown is required, just do it. Ignore ifs and butts of librandus who have nothing else to offer
SOLUTION APPROACH :
Whatever solution is proposed will require large sums of money.
Central govt doesn’t have money, because Indian economy was in general ward in hospital before pandemic. And after pandemic it is in coma and organs are failing. Indian economy is now in intensive care unit. In such as only option is for everyone to shoulder responsibilities.
Retired people, middle class, sportspeople & actors, industrialist, MPs, MLAs etc. are now contributing funds for fight against Covid-19.
HOW ABOUT CONTRIBUTION BY POLITICAL PARTIES THAT HAVE COLLECTED FUNDS DIRECTLY OR THROUGH ELECTORAL BONDS?
Aren’t Political Parties farmed to Serve citizens of India? JUST KEEP Rs 100 or LESS for POLITICAL PARTY activities and DONATE REST equally TO ALL STATES and UTs for preparation and fight against pandemic.
Minor correction :
Aren’t Political Parties farmed to Serve citizens of India? JUST KEEP Rs 100 Crore LESS for POLITICAL PARTY activities and DONATE REST equally TO ALL STATES and UTs for preparation and fight against pandemic
All was in control but then came jamaat … And now we are in situation. But you missed this point, stone pelting, the thoo jihad. You hvnt done analysis on why only one particular community is having highest contribution to the total count? You missed all these points. Other ppls also doing some stupidity but they are not spreading COVD19.
No country has a perfect model available to deal with such situation, its first time for all nations, small or big. There will be mistakes at all levels and there will be learnings.
Further the economy will survive if humans managed to survive.
Learn about Bhopal health department also.
It is too early to know if the lockdown has done anything.Cases have started rising exponentially in high population density pockets and South Korea has shown the world that a lockdown is not the solution,but early diagnosis of cases with isolation and contact tracing is.
To put the threat from this virus into perspective, we should remember that over 400,000 people a year die of TB in India and around 250,000 die of Malaria. Covid has a mortality rate of less than 1% and pominantly affects people over the age of 70.It is not surprising that it kills people in their thousands in Europe and America with much older population than India with much higher life expectancy than India.In Italy ,nearly a quarter of people are over 65,whereas in India,this is just over 5% and the median age of the Indian population is 25. So,it was unlikely to affect India in a big way so long as strict contact tracing and isolation were undertaken as Korea showed the world(which did not have any lockdown).Was any of this taken into consideration before imposing a lock down on a country the size of a continent and putting the livelihood of millions at risk?
No,because it would not make him look decisive on TV.It is like the Wild West.First shoot,then ask questions.
The trouble with the current PM is that all major decisions are taken with the sole purpose of how good it makes him look for the TV cameras and as PR exercise. He likes to ride the tiger and then struggles to get off it.There is no exit plan or strategy.We saw that with demonetisation,GST,Article 370,CAA and NRC etc and now this. Till the supine media and the public start to ask some tough questions,things are only going to get worse.
You are absolutely right. This PM is only fit for doing drama.
Good analysis. But my problem with this analysis are multifold.
Firstly, there was hardly a data on vivid to figure out a response. Looking at Italy or china would have hardly made a change in execution strategy. You simply don’t shut down a trillion dollar economy based on a risk. Like the author rightfully implies every decision is economically measured. Shutting down india for 2 cases without the benefit of hindsight would have been considered widely stupid by the same intellectuals.
The ‘right’ parameter was probably a previous disease which would be Sars whose impact on India had been limited.
Plus apart from shutting down there was hardly response left in govt’s kitty. You can try shutting down your borders but you just need 1 stupid person you bring back to break quarantine and you are screwed. Even the USA was aware that covid would reach there even after closing their borders.
While the author is looking at economic factors, I think unless he can bring the numbers to the forefront, his analysis is simply futile. These situations are complex and complex situations have different perspectives. Just taking the one you like is not neutral. I could argue the opposite point if and when the death tolls hits 10k post removing the lockdown.
I feel this analysis misjudges that this is in the same vein as that of 2016 demonetization drive. Since none of the readers or self proclaimed analysts have a true idea of the country’s medical infra, economic weight and its risk bearing capabilty and the nature of the virus, it is best to leave it to the people sitting in the driving seat. Showcasing intellectual capabilities here is akin to reading patterns without seeing the complete picture. You will end up simply seeing what you want to see.
Total lockdown is killing livelihood and hence life too. But opening it will kill life exponentially. Life is always the first priority but livelihood cannot be segregated for long. Mass testing along with isolation and treatment is the only real remedy right now. Partial lockdown and opening it gradually is the only way to save both life and livelihood , otherwise livelihood will kill much more life
Paper Tigers, well said.
Extremely well articulated opinion, with a bit of spicy undercurrent of analogies. I think this Central government (just like other democratic governments around the world) thinking is along similar lines of gradual opening because of the economic and social cost of this pandemic, especially on the poor and middle class. I read that this government is thinking of gradual opening of areas based on Red, Yellow and Green zones categorization. But a two week across the nation extension with very few exceptions should be the way to go, else all efforts thus far will go in vain. Looking further, the most important consideration for all this is the state of literacy among the masses to follow directives. Where its weak and poor it is better to rule with a dikat and overwhelming shutdown for the greater good. In fact, all the ills of the Indian society can be squarely place upon illiteracy, which allows allows opinion journalists and the so-called intelligentsia get away with truly counterproductive but apparently populist prescriptions.
In no factory workers stand cheek by jowl. So, all factories should be opened up. With extra care that all workers should wear masks, and try to maintain physical distance. In factory canteens, all the workers should take extra care to wash their hand thoroughly before and after lunch or on the job tea breaks. Or tea breaks should be abolished because there can be no facility for thorough hand washing. Big companies can ferry their workers in their buses, making extra rounds to ensure spaced out seating or standing. In local trains in Bombay, it should be made mendatory that only factory workers will travel, and that too on alternate days. This will easily reduce the traffic in locals by less than one fourth, so again masks +, spacing can be effective. Same way workers should be allowed in agricultural fields because there it is even easier to maintain physical spacing.
Factory managers should be told to ask their workers on alternate days and assure them that they will get full salary. This should not be seen as a big burden by factory owners because the wage bill is anyway only about 10% of a product’s cost. This way at least 50% of production will be achieved which will go up gradually as the virus eases out by Bajrangbali’s kindness. Aur iss tarah se yeh bura waqt bhi guzar jayega. When good time is not for ever, why will the bad time be for ever? Is God so unkind?
56″ failed 130 crore proud Indians by yielding to the arm twisting act of his best friend (as per his claim, but don’t know how Trump feels about semi-literate’s overture). He also failed to provide the needful aid to neighbour country, of whose bonds are closure to the hearts of 130 crore citizens. It is very clear that 56″ has lost his control and operated now by selfish courtiers!
56″ has failed. Good. What would you do now? I suggest if you are in India, you can jump from your house top and set an example for other 56″ haters to emulate.
“But the graph isn’t rising even geometrically, forget exponentially.”
that is not true. the graph is rising exponentially.
putting the samething in different way –
1. a linear graph in a logarithmic scale is an exponential graph.
2. when something gets doubled after a fixed time (for india’s case around 4 days) it is an exponatial increase.
just from the graph, even the effect of lockdown is not apparent. may be increaded testing needs to be taken into account.
ps; in generel you keep really excellent journalistic standard . keep up the good work. and thanks to you and your team.
That’s right!! It’s better to die of the virus than to die of hunger.. or commit suicide because of a business going bust, or a crop having no harvesters or buyers!!
This has been a season of chronologies. Most replicate those of horror films. The first incident is dismissed as a coincidence and explained away. After the second, you know something is wrong. By the third one, you know the monster is out to get you!!
Four non – bhakts, it would be CAA-NRC- Delhi riots. There’s also Jaamatis doing stupid things like others from all religions all over the world, including the BJP in MP at the very same time.. then BJP’s IT Cell, MPs and Modi Media calling it Corona Jihad.. and eventually Muslims getting attacked. For bhakts it would be Rahul Gandhi’s warning on Feb 12.. 1.5 months of jabba-jabba.. followed by Modi becoming the original Pappu as the deaths rise!
There have also been a few scary ones for all patriotic Indians. PPE export banned on Jan 31.. Gov’t placing orders only 5 weeks later.. and doctors wearing raincoats, with those that have PPEs being asked to recycle them! Then there’s Janata Curfew on March 22.. BJP getting power in MP on 23rd.. Lockdown announced on 24th.. (I don’t buy the argument that 2 positives in India would make more alarm bells ring than thousands of deaths in developed countries!!!)
But the scariest chronology of all is the announcement of relief measures after the lockdown, because the third is yet to unfold: 1) relief package of less than 1% of GDP ( which if I’m not mistaken, includes MGNREGA wages!!)
2) Diya, ghar aur butt jalao
3) ………….??
Your guess is as good as mine!!
Superb…you read my mind.
Superb…you read my mind.
State capacity and public finances cannot support an extended lockdown. Relatively well off Mumbaikars are finding it difficult to get daily essentials. The woes of health workers are well known. Punjab has found a way to keep its wheat procurement going, despite extending the lockdown by a fortnight. The government should focus on the hotspots for the medical response and slowly allow the rest of the country to open up for economic activity, led by manufacturing. 2. Thousands of migrant textile workers coming out on the streets of Surat last night, demanding that they be paid their arrears and permitted to return to their villages shows that social unrest could become a big problem. For six years, the economy has been neglected, left to its own devices, when it was not being damaged. We must now chew the grapes of wrath.
Whatever decision the Union Govt takes, I hope they clearly communicate reasons for the same and the data on which the decision is based. Also we would like to know plans for economic revival and means to enable us to keep our jobs and pay our bills. Whatever has been put up so far in public is either borrowed from previous dispensation. (bank transfers to poor) or grossly inadequate (temporary moratorium with escalating interest which has to be borne in 3 months time) How are we going to keep our jobs, pay EMI and school fees, save for yet another rainy day. Already paycuts have been instituted and salaries delayed. Serious work is needed on the govt’s part.
Yes, every war is fought with some strategies and with theater to theater tactics. Every war is closely monitored by the veteran commanders sitting 24 hours in war-room. As to get optimum results from the war, it is not necessary to fire
indiscriminately on every front or start and keep on bombardment on whole of the cities. The strategic targeting like Balkot gives good desirable outcomes — to show off your power and determination and results in gains politically also. So the time has come to give heed to what SG ,sir has written and area-specific restrictions can be planned and implemented. Results will be good, if not better.
Way back in December 1985, Saint Scholar Giani Niranjan Singh Ji Shiromani Kathakar, said, “ Come to the turn of the century, the economy of the world will start to go downhill.”
To the question, “ Why?” the Saint Scholar replied, “ We will be moving from the Age of Falsehood to the Age of Righteousness.”
To another question, “ If the economy of the world will go downhill, which country will come up?”
Saint Scholar replied, “India.”
The questioner asked, “Why?”
Saint Scholar replied, “ Land on which deep meditation took place will thrive. Other countries will have a hard time.”
Which is probably the reason why India is not seriously impacted by the coronavirus.
well said India is rising through corona spread as its population will go down and economy will boom there will be only billionaire in the country.
I agree with the analysis. Blanket extension of the lockdown may not be advisable. However, too liberal relaxation is also a big no. The numbers are rising fast and Covid-19 seems to be a tricky and deceptive customer. Complacency is the last thing that we want. Some sort of balancing act is required. Now where is the golden mean and how the balance can be achieved is a moot point. This requires lot of data collection and in-depth district-wise analysis. Another important aspect is that the Agri sector simply cannot remain standstill. In north India, rabbi crops need to be harvested and marketed.These include wheat, mustard, lentil, maize, chilies etc. In Maharashtra, farmers who grow perishable vegetables do not find market for their produce. Fruit and flower growers are adversely affected. In Maharashtra, export of 35000 tonnes of grapes is stuck due to Covid-19 spread. The same fate awaits the famous Alphonso mangoes from the Konkan area and Rose export from Mahatshtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Domestic market for roses is as good as dead. These are very capital intensive crops and lakhs of Rupees invested by farmers are simply sunk. So, where is the Sanjivani booty, I don’t know. Lockdown will have to be extended, this is the given. But what are the qualifications and exemptions is to be seen.
We have two issues – saving both lives and livelihood. Both of these are important and it is not a debate as these are interdependent. Now let us try to apply your concept of Sanjivani Booti & Hanuman’s mountain or Surgical Strike and Carpet Bombing in the language of PM Modiji. Let us keep in mind there is no vaccine or cure other than testing, tracking, targeted isolation etc.
In the case of saving lives we are neither doing required amount of testing nor enough PPE are available for health care workers. So we are not able to do targeting and don’t have data. This is why we are getting conflicting reports about community transmission. This impacts what should be optimal strategy about lifting lockdown.
In the case of livelihood, you have a situation of vicious loop demand and supply. Now we have added finance crisis and crisis of trust/confide to the vicious loop. Hence, we can’t provide stimulus like US or Germany and other countries.
All these things tell us that PM Modi’s govt has neither Sanjivani Booti nor Hanuman’s mountain. We are left to our fate left or Ram Bharose as some call it.
Don’t worry, citizens of India that will find solution even though it will be slow. Only thing is central govt shouldn’t come in the way of implementing good ideas. We don’t have issues ministers watching Ramayana or playing antakshri as we don’t have much expectation from them. I am sure in near future all Indians will appreciate working of building of India that was started by Pandit Nehru and others.
Hotspot containment following ramped up testing, identifying infection free zones to lift the lockdown for economic activities to resume. This was the model suggested by the economist Ms. Ravi. You seem to be following her to the t. This plan of action appears to be the most logical and effective. Believing the government’s head is screwed right, they may follow it with minor modifications.
I fully support. Hot-spots should be contained or locked-down, not the whole country.
A failing economy would kill off more people, would be drastic set back for the country and just massively lower standards of living for a long long time.
The print….please don’t publish any article without thinking…
Extension of Lockdown is so necessary…don’t u care for human lives….rather u care only for economy….your writer Shekhar Gupta is even more idiot … being a writer he doesn’t know what to write
sir the economy should also be considered; a severe lockdown could crumble the economy leading to harsh situations – mass unemployment, overloaded healthcare system, i.e a halt in your life services, then what about people who are less than your economical-financial status. The best solution as of now is a staggered lockdown wherein only hotspot areas are controlled seriously especially during May-June because if this continues till July-August, Covid 19 won’t be the only problem
Idiots think they know everything about idiocy.. they only stupidity they don’t know anything about is their own!!
In 2016, more than 11,000 farmers committed suicide.. add a lockdown with hampered procurement, no labour for harvest, and the numbers will shoot up!! Maybe double or triple!!
If the virus doesn’t kill you, the lockdown will!!
Sir,you may be living in your comfort zone and not understand tbe sufferings of the poor millions. Virus is a grave concern but economy too needs to be looked into.
I totally agree with you .. he is a big time idiot and a useless writer who dribble words which is of less worth. I think he has nothing to write so he write some shit…USA thought about economy now drowning in dead bodies & you have Italy. Economy exist only when people exist .. 🙂 . Especially during such time.. I expect people to use a little bit of their brain and good thought to make people understand the need for extension else this effort of 21 days Lock down will go utter useless.
Anyways.. if corona virus number goes ahead in a country like India , We can estimate more than 2lakh + death minimum…
For all those thinking about farmers.. kindly don’t bargain in market next time when you buy veggies.. least you can do to respect them.. & also not to waste food.
You deserve a Pulitzer Prize for writing an essay on India’s Covid-19 crisis without even mentioning the words ‘Tablighi Jamaat’ . . . ! 😀
What about Bhopal health department?