RBI has retained its inflation projection at 5.4% for the current year. Uncertainties in food prices and volatility in global crude oil prices continue to keep 4% target out of reach.
Geopolitical conflicts & new cold war have upended oil, various food and commodity markets. Climate-change issues will impose other costs. So, prices will rise even if demand is weak.
Findings are of relevance for RBI, which has followed inflation targeting policies since 2016 but had to write to govt in December 2022 explaining why inflation had overshot target.
According to data released Monday, retail inflation softened to a four-month low of 5.3% in August, from 5.59% in the previous month, led by subdued prices of food articles.
Many experts argued against retaining 4% plus-minus 2% target, while some wanted to scrap the framework altogether. But it provides stability, can help growth.
Year-on-year method misses trends in prices, so month-to-month seasonal adjustment should be used. According to this, May-December avg inflation was 4.05%.
RBI must work towards better transmission mechanism, for which India needs deep & liquid bond market, competitive banking sector & regulatory framework.
It is necessary to break the spell of socialist dogma on the imagination of those attracted by its Utopia as the only scientific way of progress, wrote MA Venkatarao in 1963.
While bond yields tend to fall amid low inflation & interest rate cuts, market experts say they’ve been rising due to concerns over tax collections, fiscal deficit & potential impact of US tariffs.
It is one of the most advanced long-range air defence and anti-missile radars. It has been acquired under an about USD 145-million deal signed in 2020.
To be truly functional and durable, even eternal, a state doesn’t just need a leader, a party or an ideology. It needs functional and robust institutions.
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