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Dear Print team, this article is, unfortunately, based in a very common, but erroneous assumption about how probability works. The logic used in this article is called the Monte Carlo fallacy/gamblers fallacy and leads to the untrue prediction/assumption that India losing the top for the 12th time in a row is very unlikely. As an example, if we toss a fair coin 5 times in a row, the outcome five heads consecutively (HHHHH) is just as likely as four heads followed by a tail (HHHHT) and both have a probability of 1/32.
Dear Print team, this article is, unfortunately, based in a very common, but erroneous assumption about how probability works. The logic used in this article is called the Monte Carlo fallacy/gamblers fallacy and leads to the untrue prediction/assumption that India losing the top for the 12th time in a row is very unlikely. As an example, if we toss a fair coin 5 times in a row, the outcome five heads consecutively (HHHHH) is just as likely as four heads followed by a tail (HHHHT) and both have a probability of 1/32.
Very wrong title.
All the coin toss are independent of each other so the probability of losing or winning the toss was 1/2 only.