Union Budget 2024 allocated Rs 11.1 lakh cr as capex for FY25. This is 11% higher than what was budgeted for FY24 and 17% higher than what was actually spent that year.
Leaving interim budget largely unchanged would be in keeping with trend since 2004-05. Even when new parties have come to power, budgetary allocations have not changed substantially.
Fall in capital expenditure indicates Congress govt's shrinking space to create assets. In contrast, Rs 52,000 cr is earmarked for 5 guarantees promised to voters before state polls.
Last 20 years' data shows capex share in spending has risen since 1st term of Modi govt in 2014-15 & that of subsidies has dropped. Under UPA between 2004-2014, subsidies rose while capex fell.
Studies by Bank of Baroda find Centre on track to meet capex target for this fiscal. There’s wide disparity in states’ performances but upcoming polls haven’t derailed the capex process.
Better-than-expected GDP growth in FY23 made possible by 6.1% jump in January-March quarter. Private consumption revival, sustained investment growth key to maintaining momentum.
While a higher capital outlay has been budgeted for FY 23-24, trends of last FY suggest states have underspent on capex & are unlikely to achieve their targets for 2022-23.
Capex was flat over FY19 to FY21 and grew 16% in FY22. The forecasts are for 8 state owned enterprises and 21 privately held Fitch-rated corporates in India.
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