Bengaluru: The Karnataka government led by Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa appears set for a comfortable majority in the assembly, with trends becoming clear in the 15 constituencies that went to a keenly-watched byelections last week.
In the 224-member assembly — excluding the Speaker — the majority mark is 113. However, with two constituencies not going to polls over cases pending in the Karnataka High Court for alleged electoral malpractice, the House strength is now 222, which brings the majority mark further down.
While an official announcement by the Election Commission is awaited, the latest result trends show BJP has won six seats and is comfortably leading in six other seats. Two seats have been won by the Congress, while JD(S) has drawn a blank. In the high-profile Hoskote seat, BJP rebel Sharath Bache Gowda was leading by a huge margin at the time of writing this report.
Going by the trends, the BJP will win 12 seats, taking its tally in the Karnataka assembly from 106 to 118 — including the support of one Independent MLA and the Speaker — making it comfortable for Yediyurappa to continue as CM.
In an embarrassment for the party that ruled the state for 13 months after the 2018 assembly elections, until 17 MLAs defected and brought down the government, the JD(S) finished in the third position in all the 12 constituencies it contested.
Of the 13 rebels who contested on the BJP ticket, 12 have won or are leading in their respective seats, except for A.H. Vishwanath, the former JD(S) state president who contested from Hunsur. This seat has been wrested by Congress candidate H.P. Manjunath by a margin of nearly 40,000 votes.
Since he assumed the chief ministerial chair on 26 July, Yediyurappa has been running the Karnataka government on a wafer-thin majority — after his takeover from the Congress-JD(S) government via defections.
The bypolls, necessitated by these defections from the Congress and JD(S) to the BJP, had become a battle for pride and, more importantly, stability in Karnataka.
Bypolls were held in 15 constituencies — Athani, Kagwad, Gokak, Yellapur, Hirekerur, Ranibennur, Vijayanagar, Chikkaballapur, KR Puram, Yeshwanthpura, Mahalakshmi Layout, Shivajinagar, Hoskote, KR Pete and Hunsur.
The BJP and the Congress fielded candidates in all 15 seats, while the JD(S) contested only 12.
The Congress and the JD(S), which fought the bypolls separately after having run a coalition for 13 months, performed quite badly. with the Congress winning only Hunsur and Shivajinagar seats.
Accepting their defeat, senior Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar said the party will accept the people’s mandate, but it hurts to know that the people accepted the “defectors”.
“We have to agree with the mandate of these 15 constituencies. I can see that people have accepted defectors, the ruling party will have an edge, but ultimately we have accepted defeat,” he said.
Also read: Medical college, roads, irrigation plans — how Yediyurappa is ‘campaigning’ for rebel MLAs
New challenges for Yediyurappa
Speaking to ThePrint, a senior BJP official said chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa faces a three-pronged challenge now: keeping his flock together, including the rebels; appease or quell the voices of dissent among party loyalists who are looking for a place in the cabinet; and to neutralise those leaders within the party who are unhappy with his leadership.
“After the (cabinet) expansion, he will have to firefight effectively, or there could be a possibility of some BJP leaders defecting to the Opposition, which may bring down the government’s numbers. It is up to him to ensure he douses the fire before it gets out of hand,” the BJP official said on condition of anonymity.
Voices of dissent have been growing within the BJP as party loyalists were being denied ministerial berths to accommodate the rebels.
Yediyurappa had lured the rebels by declaring that he would make them ministers in his cabinet within 24 hours of winning their seats.
Also read: Disqualified Karnataka MLAs find a new tool to woo voters — new districts
Twists and turns
In the 2018, assembly elections, Karnataka delivered a hung verdict, with BJP securing 104 seats, Congress 80, JD(S) 37, with two independents and a BSP candidate winning the other seats.
The BJP staked claim to form the government despite knowing it did not have the numbers. It fell short by nine MLAs. Yediyurappa had to resign just hours before the floor test.
The Congress and JD(S) joined hands in a post-poll alliance to form the government on 23 May last year, under the leadership of H.D. Kumaraswamy.
Nearly 13 months later, under the watchful eye of BJP president Amit Shah, the party successfully managed to lure 17 legislators from both Congress and JD(S) to extend their support to Yediyurappa. The BJP high command wasn’t enthused initially by the idea of getting MLAs to switch sides. However, Yediyurappa persisted and got the desired outcome.
The MLAs resigned and pledged their allegiance to the BJP.
However, in another twist, Karnataka speaker K.R. Ramesh Kumar then disqualified the 17 legislators under the anti-defection law. He also barred the rebel legislators from contesting elections until the end of the current assembly term in 2023.
The rebels appealed in the Supreme Court against this order. The court upheld the disqualification, but allowed the legislators to contest the bypolls on 5 December.
Also read: BJP backs Yediyurappa as he ‘admits’ Amit Shah role in rebellion of Congress-JD(S) MLAs
The media ought to reproduce all the “Predictions” and the “Sweep” that Congress leaders like Siddaramiah were making before today. RG in Delhi and Sidda in Bangalore are making Shah & Modi dream of a “Congress mukt Bharat” come true, sooner than thought possible.
I am beginning to believe in the rigged EVM theory.