Chennai: While the alliance led by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) swept the Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu — winning all 39 constituencies — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came second in 12 seats.
In doing so, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition pushed the alliance led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — Tamil Nadu’s principal opposition party — to third place in 11 constituencies and fourth place in one. The AIADMK-led alliance was able to secure the second position in the remaining 27 constituencies.
Of the 12 constituencies where the AIADMK-led alliance was pushed to third and fourth position, 10 were contested by the AIADMK itself and two by its ally, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), a party formed by the late actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth.
The AIADMK also lost its deposit in seven constituencies in Tamil Nadu — including some of its traditional strongholds — as well as Puducherry’s lone seat.
On paper, the party’s vote share in Tamil Nadu has gone up slightly to 20.46 percent from 19.39 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But that’s explained by the fact that it contested in 34 constituencies this time with just two allies (the DMDK and the Social Democratic Party of India), whereas in 2019, it was part of the NDA and contested in only 20 seats.
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, when it was allied with the BJP and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the AIADMK secured a vote share of 33.29 percent.
The DMK-led alliance had triumphed in 2019 and 2021, too. Now, the AIADMK’s leaders face tough questions about its future as they grapple with a third consecutive defeat.
AIADMK general secretary and former Tamil Nadu chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) has issued a statement saying the Lok Sabha polls aren’t the full reflection of the people’s voice. It’s a lesson for the party to learn as it works for victory in the 2026 assembly elections, he said.
On the other hand, with the NDA getting 18.28 percent of the votes and the BJP alone securing 11.24 percent, the latter’s state president, K. Annamalai, has again claimed that his party would form a government in the state in 2026. “If you see this as overconfident, yes, I am,” Annamalai said in his first press conference after the Lok Sabha election results on 5 June.
According to writer and political analyst Maalan Narayanan, the BJP has eaten up the AIADMK’s vote share in a lot of constituencies.“From being identified as the Brahmin, urban party, the BJP has now managed to get rural Hindu OBC votes that traditionally went to the AIADMK in some constituencies,” he said.
However — while accepting that traditional AIADMK votes have moved to the BJP in a few constituencies — political researcher Arun Kumar, who has done his PhD thesis on the rise of the BJP in Tamil Nadu, says the increase in the BJP’s vote share was not significant since the AIADMK kept its profile low in this election.
“The agenda of hardcore AIADMK voters is to defeat the DMK. Since the AIADMK did not field any strong candidates, people have voted for the BJP candidates, who they felt had a chance to defeat the DMK,” he said.
He added that two former AIADMK leaders who contested with the BJP’s backing made a dent in the party’s vote share in the state’s southern districts: former chief minister O. Panneerselvam (OPS) and T.T.V. Dhinakaran, deputy general secretary of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
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Shocks & surprises for BJP
Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Chennai South, Chennai Central, Vellore, Madurai, Tirunelveli, Kanniyakumari and Tiruvallur are the nine constituencies where the BJP finished in second place.
Allied candidates came second in three other seats: Sowmiya Anbumani of the PMK in Dharmapuri, OPS (contesting as an Independent) in Ramanathapuram and Dhinakaran of the AMMK in Theni.
The BJP fielded star candidates in eight of the nine constituencies where it finished second, Tiruvallur being the exception, said Arun Kumar. He added that the allied candidates in the other three seats were also familiar faces.
“People see a chance for these candidates to win against the DMK rather than the unfamiliar AIADMK candidates,” he said.
On the other hand, the BJP fell short of its own expectations, failing to win any seats.
The party was keenly looking for a victory in at least six of the nine seats where it came second: Chennai South, where it fielded former Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan; Vellore, contested by A.C. Shanmugam; Coimbatore, contested by party state chief Annamalai; Nilgiris, where it fielded L. Murugan, a former state chief and Union minister; Kanniyakumari, contested by Pon Radhakrishnan, another former state chief, Union minister and ex-MP from the seat; and Tirunelveli, where it fielded sitting MLA Nainar Nagenthran.
Apart from these, the party was also eyeing two other seats, namely Virudhunagar, where actor-turned-politician Radhika Sarathkumar was its candidate, and Perambalur, where T.R. Paarivendhar — founder of the Indhiya Jananayaka Katchi, an NDA member — contested on the BJP’s symbol.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to Tamil Nadu at least eight times since January 2024, to inaugurate various Union government projects and to campaign for BJP candidates.
In four days of campaigning in Tamil Nadu this April, Modi visited the Chennai South, Vellore, Perambalur, Nilgiris, Coimbatore and Virudhunagar constituencies, where the BJP leadership saw a chance of victory.
However, the party drew a blank in the state and was even pushed to third place in Perambalur and Virudhunagar — both constituencies where Modi campaigned.
“This was a shock for the top leaders since we were all hoping for them to give a tough fight to the DMK,” a senior BJP leader said on condition of anonymity.
On the other hand, the leader also said that the BJP coming second in Tiruvallur and Chennai Central came as a surprise since it didn’t previously have much presence in these seats.
The leader added: “Chennai Central comprises six assembly segments, of which two were state ministers’ constituencies. We did not have much presence there. Similarly, with Tiruvallur being a reserved constituency, we did not expect to finish second. These are the places we will concentrate more on next time.”
With a strong vote share, the BJP is preparing its ground for the 2026 assembly elections. However, analysts doubt whether it will be able to perform so well in the state polls.
“The Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK, have always used the Lok Sabha polls to test the waters since they don’t claim any stake in national politics,” said Narayanan, adding that it may not be easy for the BJP to replicate its Lok Sabha vote share in the assembly elections.
Among the NDA parties, the BJP lost its deposit in 11 of the 23 seats it contested, the PMK in six of 10 and the G.K. Vasan-led Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) in three out of three.
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AIADMK’s rout in the south
Of the 10 constituencies where the AIADMK was pushed to third and fourth place, the party lost its deposits — failing to secure one-sixth of the votes polled — in seven: Chennai South, Kanniyakumari, Theni, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Ramanathapuram and Vellore.
Of these seven, five are in southern Tamil Nadu.
“This shows that the traditional AIADMK votes from the Mukkulathor community (an umbrella term for the OBC Kallar, Maravar and Agamudaiyar castes) have shifted to the BJP,” says Arun Kumar.
Former AIADMK leaders Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran belong to the Mukkulathor community, which is politically and socially dominant in the southern part of the state.
These two leaders finished second in their respective constituencies, relegating the candidates contesting on the AIADMK’s two leaves symbol to third place.
If Gounders — the OBC community to which Palaniswami belongs — are the AIADMK’s traditional voters in the western part of the state, Mukkulathors have played the same part in southern Tamil Nadu, said Narayanan.
He added: “If Edappadi K. Palaniswami wants to concentrate only on the western region and not the south, then in the distant future, the AIADMK will be reduced to yet another caste party in the state.”
Days after the general election results, there was a renewed call from Panneerselvam’s supporters to work together as a reunified AIADMK to win the assembly polls.
J.C.D. Prabhakar, a former senior leader and MLA, released a video appealing to the AIADMK leadership to join hands with Panneerselvam and his supporters to once again become a formidable party in the state.
However, former AIADMK minister K.P. Munusamy said there was no chance of working with Panneerselvam. “They betrayed the party. How can we join with a betrayer?” he asked.
Narayanan also said that the AIADMK must introspect on the poll results and do immediate course correction.
He added: “Had the AIADMK and the BJP been in alliance, they would have secured at least 10-12 seats and it would have been tough for the DMK in a few more constituencies. But now, it was a cakewalk for them.”
Asked about it at a press conference, Annamalai blamed the AIADMK for the alliance breaking up. “It was the AIADMK that spoke too lowly about the BJP. It was them who compared us with NOTA. And now the people of the state have taught them a lesson in Chennai and southern Tamil Nadu,” he said.
Former minister S.P. Velumani said the AIADMK-BJP alliance would have secured more than 30 seats had it remained intact. “But who is the reason for the breaking of ties? It was Annamalai, who spoke ill of our Dravidian leaders,” he said, referring to the BJP state president’s remarks on leaders including C.N. Annadurai and J. Jayalalithaa that exacerbated tensions as the alliance fractured.
Asked if they would again forge an alliance, Velumani said the party would decide after introspecting on the Lok Sabha polls.
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