He is viewed as a candidate with great potential for victory, and the SP-BSP combine may back him to ensure a repeat of Gorakhpur & Phulpur losses for the BJP.
New Delhi: Opposition candidates’ facile victories over the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls in Uttar Pradesh seem to have created a blueprint for the parties — pool your support together behind one candidate. And for the upcoming Lok Sabha bypoll in Kairana in western UP, they look set to back Rashtriya Lok Dal scion Jayant Chaudhary.
While there is no official word, sources in the Samajwadi Party say they are ready to support Chaudhary, because there is a widespread belief that he could easily win the seat. The bypoll, necessitated by the death of the BJP’s sitting MP Hukum Singh, is set to be held on 28 May, with the result to be declared on 31 May.
In Gorakhpur and Phulpur, vacated by UP CM Yogi Adityanath and deputy CM K.P. Maurya respectively, the BJP had lost after the Bahujan Samaj Party extended its support to candidates from its arch-rival SP. The parties have since formally joined hands to topple their common ‘enemy’, the BJP.
The opposition parties believe another concerted effort could produce rich dividends in Kairana, since it would not just be a third seat snatched from the BJP’s kitty, but also help build momentum in western UP, where the latter did extremely well both in the 2014 general elections and the 2017 assembly polls. And with the BSP sticking to its policy not to contest bypolls, the SP would be the likely party to field a candidate.
Sanjay Lathar, SP MLC and the person in-charge of the Kairana Lok Sabha seat, says no decision has been taken yet, and that he’s preparing the ground for his party to fight the election.
The lay of the land
In 2014, SP candidate Nahid Hasan finished second with 29.49 per cent vote, compared to Hukum Singh’s 50.54 per cent. The BSP stood third, while the RLD was fourth.
Kairana has around 16 lakh voters, of which Muslims form the largest chunk of five and a half lakh, followed by Dalits and Jats, both of whom contribute around two lakh voters each.
The opposition is assuming that the BJP will field Hukum Singh’s daughter Mriganka. In 2017, she had contested assembly elections from Kairana and lost to SP’s Nahid Hasan.
“But putting up a Muslim candidate will help the BJP make it a Hindu versus Muslim,” said a senior SP leader. “Since the BJP candidate will be a Gurjar, our candidate in all likelihood should be a Jat.”
The SP is sure of getting Muslims to support whichever candidate it pushes for, and if the BSP brings its traditional Dalit vote bank along, opposition parties could easily touch 50 per cent votes. A Jat candidate could help in adding that community’s votes to this kitty, making it a comfortable win.
The significance of Kairana
Kairana has been in the limelight after the news reports emerged of Hindu families leaving the place out of “fear” of Muslims. In fact, during the assembly elections, many BJP leaders campaigned in Kairana with the slogan that they “wouldn’t let it become Kashmir”. But despite that, Mriganka Singh lost the elections.
The RLD is considered to have a strong presence in the region, mainly because it used to consolidate Jats and Muslims. However, the scenario changed after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, when divisions popped up between the two communities’ voters. As a result, the RLD couldn’t win a single seat in the 2014 general elections, which it contested in alliance with the Congress. It had won five seats in alliance with the BJP in 2009, but later joined the Congress-led UPA in 2011.
In the 2017 assembly elections, it could win only one seat, and that MLA also quit the party on 30 April 2018 to join the BJP. The MLA, Sahendra Singh Ramala, had been suspended by the party for not voting in favour of the BSP in the Rajya Sabha elections.
Chaudhary family connection
In the past, Kairana Lok Sabha seat has been won twice by the RLD (1999 and 2004), which is headed by Chaudhary’s father Ajit Singh, and once each by the SP (1996) and the BSP (2009).
In 1980, Chaudhary’s grandmother Gayatri Devi, wife of former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, had won Kairana on a Janata Party ticket.
The SP leader said Chaudhary’s possible candidacy made sense because of the respect the family commands. “If Jayant contests, he could win with the Hindu vote alone, as the family has a lot of respect in the area, and apart from Muslim and Dalits, the Jats would vote for their caste brother,” he said.
An RLD leader added: “There is a great respect for Chaudhary sahib’s family in the area, especially among the farmers’ community, and if Jayant ji contests, no one can defeat him.”
Sudhir Pawar, SP leader and a professor at Lucknow University, said: “Jats are moving away from the BJP because they are unhappy over sugarcane prices and delay in payments. Efforts to bring together Muslims and Jats are proving successful. This will reflect in the upcoming elections.”
In mid-April, Chaudhary himself had met BSP supremo Mayawati, looking at a possible alliance. He has not pitched himself forward for the seat, but given the situation, he is the most likely candidate.