Mumbai: On the face of it, the results of the Maharashtra assembly elections may not look good for the Shiv Sena. While it had agreed to play second fiddle to the BJP, the Sena’s tally in the 288-member assembly has also dipped from 63 in 2014 to about 56 now. The party lost its prestigious Bandra East seat too — home constituency of Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray and his family.
A more nuanced reading of the results, however, shows that this election has actually brought the Shiv Sena many gains.
At over 44 per cent, the party is on its way to recording its best strike rate ever (number of seats it won against the number of seats it contested), better than its previous best of 43.19 per cent in 1995 when it had won 73 seats and formed the first ever Shiv Sena-led government in Maharashtra.
With Aaditya Thackeray‘s win from the Worli constituency, the Sena will, for the first time, also have a member of the party’s first family in Maharashtra’s Vidhan Sabha.
More significantly, considering the BJP’s weaker-than-expected performance, the Shiv Sena will have a lot more say and bargaining power in the second term of the alliance government. And the Sena chief is aware of this.
“When we had declared the alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, we decided on a 50-50 formula for all seats and posts during the assembly polls. Subsequently, the BJP had some problems, which I patiently understood and agreed to accept a lower share of seats,” said Uddhav, at a press conference Thursday evening.
“Now if their problems are going to continue, I cannot go on being understanding. After all, even I have a party to run.”
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More berths, more say in government
While BJP leaders were hoping to cross 135-140 seats on their own and eventually make the Shiv Sena redundant in Maharashtra, the former is now staring at a much lower tally of 105 seats.
Contrary to what it had wished for, said political analysts, the BJP will now have to rely much more on the Shiv Sena than it did in its first term.
Political commentator Hemant Desai said, “The BJP’s way of operating until now was to have a one-man control with the chief minister’s office running the government. With its reduced tally, its dependency on the Shiv Sena and a stronger opposition, this one-man control will be curtailed.”
Ravindra Mirlekar, a Shiv Sena functionary, said Thursday’s situation is a reverse of what had happened after the 1995 assembly results.
“At that time, the Shiv Sena had more seats than the BJP, but Balasaheb Thackeray ensured that the BJP was accommodated well in the government. The BJP got the deputy CM’s post, important portfolios, and it is on this basis that the party grew in Maharashtra. It is an open secret.
“The same situation has come back again with a role reversal and we can only hope that the BJP will give the Shiv Sena its due respect,” he added.
Another senior Shiv Sena leader, who did not wish to be named, said it was BJP’s pride which took a fall with Thursday’s verdict.
“At the same time, the Shiv Sena was getting dragged behind the BJP in the government. The voters have opened our eyes too. We had no worth in the first term of the alliance government. This time, the BJP will have to accommodate the proposals, decisions and concepts of the Shiv Sena too,” the leader added.
Sena MLC Neelam Gorhe similarly said the verdict is clearly for an alliance of the BJP and the Shiv Sena. “The verdict is also for a stronger opposition in Maharashtra. People have opted for the BJP and Shiv Sena to rule together once again, and while we were always ideological allies, one can hope that this result will also enable the two parties in ironing out differences over the implementation of certain decisions.”
The Aaditya Thackeray factor
Aaditya Thackeray, the first from his family to enter the electoral fray, won from Mumbai’s Worli assembly constituency by a robust margin of 67,427 votes. With the 29-year-old’s formal entry into politics, Shiv Sena leaders hope the party will not only have more weightage in the BJP-led government but will also be able to further expand across Maharashtra.
Another Shiv Sena functionary, who did not wish to be named, said Aaditya, who enjoys a good rapport with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, can potentially improve the coordination between the BJP and Shiv Sena.
The Thackeray scion had extensively campaigned across Maharashtra through his ‘Jan Ashirvad Yatra’ and other rallies close to the election date, establishing himself as a pan-Maharashtra leader.
Party leaders hope that his extensive legwork across the state and his upcoming stint in the state legislative assembly will help the Shiv Sena spread its footprint in smaller cities and towns as well as in rural Maharashtra.
“He gives the Shiv Sena a softer image. He comes with a lot of fresh ideas for the state related to education, environment, sustainable development and gender equality that appeals to the youth. With the Shiv Sena having an increased say in the government, it will be easier to turn these ideas into actual implementable decisions,” the Sena leader said.
He also added that it will increase the Sena’s popularity in smaller urban centres across Maharashtra, besides in the Mumbai-Thane belt. “For the rest of the state, Aaditya is projecting himself more as a friend than as an MLA,” the leader added.
“During his yatra, he also often visited small farms, dams and sat on roadsides while talking to locals. This is the image he wants to project for himself.”
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