New Delhi: Jharkhand’s coveted Jamshedpur East assembly seat, being eyed by Odisha Governor Raghubar Das—a former chief minister and BJP leader—as well as Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) leader and incumbent MLA Saryu Roy, has been left out of discussions by the BJP’s central election committee for the time being, due to the party leadership’s reluctance to field Das, it is learnt.
The central election committee, in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Tuesday held deliberations on most of the 81 assembly seats in the poll-bound state where the BJP is hoping to wrest power from the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The former is fighting the November assembly polls in alliance with the JD(U), also an ally in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in power at the Centre.
Das has, however, got a first victory in the ongoing ticket distribution—his old rival Roy has been given Jamshedpur West to contest, and not Jamshedpur East, which he wanted.
Jamshedpur East, which goes to the polls in the first phase on 13 November, has long been a BJP stronghold and the party would be loath to lose it. Das himself represented the seat for five straight terms as MLA—until Roy famously defeated him as an Independent in the 2019 state polls. Roy joined the JD(U) this August.
Speaking to ThePrint, a core member of the Jharkhand BJP said: “Discussions have been completed for most seats but Jamshedpur East was not discussed. It has been put on hold and a decision will be taken later by the party high command, primarily (home minister) Amit Shah in consultation with the PM.”
“One of the key reasons behind the indecision is the keenness of Das to contest the poll. It looks like the central leadership is not keen on his return to state politics but Das is still hopeful. There are several other names too for the seat, one of a family member of Das as well as others who have his blessing,” he added.
Sources close to the governor maintained that “it is up to the party high command to decide whether Das would contest or not”.
The caste arithmetic
Six assembly constituencies fall under the Jamshedpur Lok Sabha seat—three, Potka, Ghatsila and Jugsalai, are reserved seats, while three others, Jamshedpur East, Jamshedpur West and Baharagora, are general seats.
Caste arithmetic plays a key role in ticket distribution. The BJP already has several leaders from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) in power or vying for power. The party’s Jamshedpur MP is from an OBC group while the main contender in Baharagora is Dineshananda Goswami, who also comes from the OBC group.
With Jamshedpur West going to the JD(U), fielding Das, also an OBC, from Jamshedpur East, poses challenges, especially as the constituency has a sizeable population of upper-caste Brahmin voters.
The other contenders for the seat, apart from Das, include his relative Dinesh Kumar, Das’s political representative Mithlesh Yadav, former district president Rambabu Tiwari, a Brahmin, and state BJP chief Babulal Marandi’s close aide, Abhay Singh.
Tiwari told ThePrint that “all are waiting for the central leadership’s decision but giving the ticket to an upper caste rather than an OBC will help the party more here, since many seats have OBC representatives”.
The problem of Das
Das, the first non-tribal CM of Jharkhand, was in 2014 a surprise pick for the top post in the state, where an estimated 26 percent of the population is tribal. Another 45 percent of people are estimated to be from the OBC groups, which have largely backed the BJP in the state.
As his term ended in 2019, Das faced opposition from disgruntled tribals. The government’s (unsuccessful) attempts to amend the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act and Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act, which restrict the sale of tribal land to non-tribals, alienated the community, which believed the government was trying to grab their land.
The party lost the assembly polls to the JMM and won only two of 28 seats reserved for tribals in the state. Further, in the Lok Sabha polls this year, the BJP lost all five tribal seats in the state and is now keen to win back tribal support.
In 2023, Das was elevated to the post of Odisha governor to help Marandi work without a parallel power centre in Jharkhand. Das, who was known to have taken up the governor’s post reluctantly, has since been eyeing a return to state politics.
In August, he had met Shah and Modi to discuss this possibility, a BJP source had told ThePrint, but the high command remains wary. Then last month, state in-charge Himanta Biswa Sarma too met Das to discuss the political situation in the state.
A state BJP functionary told ThePrint: “The tribals of Jharkhand still have the memory of the tenancy acts, which had angered them. If Das returns to the state, it will boomerang for the BJP as Soren will get a chance to polarise the tribal vote.”
“When anti-incumbency against the Soren government is already high, why would the party make the mistake of antagonising tribals?” he asked.
To win tribal support, according to BJP sources, the party has already inducted former JMM leader Champai Soren to regain the tribal-dominated Kolhan region and asked Geeta Koda, who comes from the Ho Scheduled Tribe dominant in Singhbhum, to contest the Jharkhand elections.
State BJP leaders have also put in a word regarding Das’s return to state politics.
Soon after Sarma’s meeting with Das in late September, Nishikant Dubey, MP and prominent Jharkhand leader, put out a post on X saying that Das “will keep guiding the new government in Odisha”.
भाजपा में कोई कन्फ़्यूजन नहीं है,केन्द्रीय नेतृत्व ने माननीय रघुवर दास जी को उड़ीसा का राज्यपाल बनाया है,पहली बार उड़ीसा में अपने दम पर हमारी सरकार है,रघुवर जी को झारखंड सरकार के मंत्री ,मुख्यमंत्री,प्रदेश अध्यक्ष रहने के कारण बहुत अनुभव है,इसलिए नई सरकार को उड़ीसा में वे मार्ग… https://t.co/pwSpw2Ce17
— Dr Nishikant Dubey (@nishikant_dubey) September 30, 2024
“There is no confusion in the BJP, as the central leadership has appointed Raghubar ji as governor of Odisha. For the first time we have our own government in Odisha. Raghubar ji has experience of being minister, chief minister, state president of the party. Hence, he will keep guiding the new government in Odisha,” he stated.
How Saryu Roy was persuaded
While Das has not been given the green signal to contest from Jamshedpur East, Saryu Roy has been talked out of fighting from the seat.
A party source told ThePrint that “Das was against the candidature of his bête noir, Saryu Roy, from Jamshedpur East and was not in favour of leaving his stronghold seat to the JD(U)”.
“After that, the BJP high command called Saryu Roy to Delhi and suggested that he contest from Jamshedpur West, which has been his traditional seat. The BJP leadership thus fulfilled one of Das’s wishesh,” the source added.
Speaking to ThePrint, Roy said Wednesday: “I was inclined to fight from Jamshedpur East but I don’t have any reservations in contesting from Jamshedpur West, too, as I have contested from there previously. The BJP requested that I contest from the west seat and, as an NDA partner, I have agreed.”
In 2019, when Das was Jharkhand CM, Roy, then a state minister, did not get a ticket from Jamshedpur West. Roy revolted against this decision, decided to fight against Das from Jamshedpur East as an Independent and won.
Roy is also known to have blown the whistle on several cases of corruption. He had made headlines in the 1990s when he made revelations about the fodder scam in Bihar, in which former CM Lalu Prasad was convicted. Later, Roy played a significant part in exposing the coal mining scam under the Madhu Koda government in Jharkhand. Koda was subsequently convicted in the matter.
His image of an anti-graft crusader is likely to help Roy fight Congress leader and Jharkhand health minister Banna Gupta, who currently holds Jamshedpur West seat. Roy this month made several corruption allegations against Gupta.
Further, Jamshedpur West has a sizeable Muslim population and Roy has a better chance to win the seat than the BJP.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also Read: 3 challenges for Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das — ‘arrogance’, opposition within BJP, and tribals