Chennai: The stampede in Tamil Nadu’s Karur during Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay’s rally Saturday, which claimed 41 lives, has turned into the first defining test of his political journey.
What was meant to be a show of strength for the party has ended up exposing the gaps between fan mobilisation and disciplined political organisation.
Speaking to ThePrint, political analysts in the state said the tragedy could either sharpen Vijay’s credibility if he responded with empathy and took corrective measures, or leave a lasting dent on his image ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections.
According to political analyst N. Sathiya Moorthy, the challenge for Vijay now is to turn his mass base into a disciplined and structured political crowd.
“Vijay’s challenge is not about drawing crowds anymore. The real test is whether he can turn that enthusiasm into structured political energy. Because now, the Karur incident has shown the difference between a fan movement and a political party,” he told ThePrint.
Soon after the incident, Vijay headed to Trichy airport from Karur district, from where he left for Chennai. However, when reporters at the airport asked for his response to the death of people during his rally, Vijay refused to speak to them.
Late at night, he posted a small condolence note on his social media platforms and Sunday morning, posted a lengthy condolence message, announcing an ex-gratia compensation of Rs 20 lakh to the kin of those who died in the stampede and Rs 10 lakh to those who were injured.
On Tuesday afternoon, Vijay posted a video message on social media, hinting at possible political vendetta and challenged Chief Minister M.K. Stalin to take action against him and not against his party functionaries.
Political analyst and professor V.M. Sunilkumar said this did not go well with the political ethics of the state.
“Introspection and course-correction was the need of the hour, but instead of expressing his grief, and taking responsibility for the incident, Vijay seems to have given a political twist to the incident, which Tamil Nadu people may not like,” he explained.
Meanwhile, the state government has registered a case against three TVK functionaries, including general secretary N. Anand and deputy general secretary C.T. Nirmal Kumar for the stampede.
Also Read: Fans waiting since noon, sight of actor’s van—how Vijay’s Karur rally ended in a stampede
‘Vijay should go to the people’
Questioning the delay in the response of actor-turned-politician Vijay, political analysts said Vijay needs to stand with the people in need, instead of creating movie-like “mass movements”.
“At least after this incident, Vijay should have realised that creating mass movements like in cinema would not work at the grassroots-level. He should reach out to the needy and strengthen his grassroots-level functionaries to dispatch them to those in need anytime,” Sunilkumar said.
Nevertheless, according to Sathiyamoorthy, a tragedy in the career of a politician would leave a lasting impression in Tamil Nadu.
“In Tamil Nadu’s political culture, one tragedy can leave a long-lasting shadow. If Vijay learns fast and shows that he can instil discipline, people may forgive. But if such lapses are repeated, voters may begin to doubt whether he can handle the pressures of governance,” he explained.
Some analysts like Raveendran Duraisamy were also of the view that the tragedy may not end Vijay’s political career, but has shifted the burden of proof onto him.
“Tamil Nadu voters value safety and accountability. The tragedy will not end Vijay’s political career, but the dynamics has shifted and he now needs to prove himself as an able leader. He must show he can be a leader, not just a star,” he told ThePrint.
DMK rivals support Vijay
For the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Karur stampede has become a sharp weapon against the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).
Calling the inquiry commission formed by the Tamil Nadu government as an “eyewash”, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has demanded a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the tragedy.
“This is totally an administrative failure of the DMK government. Vijay is not just a political party leader, but an actor with a mass fan base. The state intelligence department should have anticipated the amount of crowd that would gather for him and should have allocated a proper venue for them. It was the state police department’s failure,” he told reporters in Coimbatore.
Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) have demanded a probe by a sitting Supreme Court judge. BJP’s former state president K. Annamalai and PMK president R. Anbumani also slammed the Stalin government for alleged administrative failure.
On the other hand, DMK and its allies have slammed the TVK for lack of crowd management by party functionaries.
“TVK’s crowd is not uncontrollable, but they are indisciplined and cannot guarantee public safety. For all rallies, political parties take care of their cadres and organise the crowd. But the TVK could not organise its own crowd, because they are indisciplined,” DMK leader V. Senthil Balaji told reporters in Karur Wednesday.
Sathiya Moorthy said the 2026 assembly election will not be decided by how many people Vijay can pull for his campaign but “how he proves his political maturity to prevent another Karur-like incident”.
For Vijay, the upcoming campaigns are no longer a show of strength of his mass support base, but a defining test of his credibility as a politician.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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