Kapran, Anantnag: The unprecedented three-phase voting in the sensitive Anantnag constituency is set to begin Tuesday, and will determine not only the future of the Mufti family’s politics but also test the resolve of security forces in militancy-marred south Kashmir.
Anantnag is the first-ever constituency to have Lok Sabha elections in three phases. Polling will take place on 23 April, 29 April and 6 May, and given that 90 per cent of the polling booths in the south Kashmir constituency are “hypersensitive”, according to the J&K police, security forces are anticipating trouble.
Anantnag has been lying vacant ever since then sitting MP Mehbooba Mufti took over as J&K chief minister in 2016, following the death of her father Mufti Sayeed.
A bypoll for the constituency was to be held in April 2017 but violence and the killing of eight civilians at the Srinagar bypoll, held earlier in the same month, put paid to all hopes of elections in south Kashmir. The state government has since then attempted to hold polls here on a number of occasions but the efforts have been hampered by the security situation.
Fragile security situation
The security situation ahead of the 2019 elections continues to be fragile. Over 480 militants have been killed in the Valley in 2017 and 2018, and over 320 Kashmiri youth have joined insurgent groups, with most of them operating in south Kashmir.
In fact, 2018 marked the highest militant recruitment in almost a decade. Sources in the police told ThePrint that as of now, the number of insurgents operating in the Valley, both local and Pakistani, is somewhere around 340. Nearly 200 of them, sources said, are in south Kashmir.
A senior police officer said 26 militants are active in Anantnag district. “We are more concerned about IED blasts,” a senior police officer in south Kashmir said, adding that police were even looking into cases of missing vehicles.
Militants, however, aren’t the only security concern here. Violent clashes between civilians and security forces in Budgam in 2017 had not only contributed to the dismal 7 per cent turnout in Srinagar but also led to the postponement of elections in Anantnag.
Any repeat of the violence will not only spell trouble for Mehbooba’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is banking on its “dedicated voters”, but also for the Modi government that faced flak over security loopholes in wake of the 14 February Pulwama suicide bombing.
Also read: J&K elections could be held beyond 6-month period, like Anantnag bypoll
The three-phase polls
The three-phase election is an attempt by the Election Commission at improving voting while taking into account the logistics for security.
“With three phases, the government expects a better turnout in polls and it will be easier for the forces to control the ground situation,” said a senior police officer.
Not everyone, however, is enthused by the decision.
J&K state Congress president and the party’s Lok Sabha candidate for Anantnag, G.A. Mir, said that while the move to have elections in three phases may not have been the best of the ideas, as it portrayed that the situation in south Kashmir is out of control, he was sure that people would come out to vote.
“People know that these things are being done to deter them from voting but that will not happen,” Mir said. “People want a different government in Delhi.”
But security forces have a different view. Where Mir sees a political conspiracy by the central government, forces see red flags.
“The ground situation is extremely sensitive,” a senior CRPF official said. “During the height of Naxalism, there were talks of holding two-phase elections in Bastar but that didn’t happen. Here in Kashmir, it was the need of the hour.”
Police and other security agencies have formulated a multi-layer security plan to ensure smooth conduct of elections. The plan includes area domination, night patrolling and strong cover by road opening parties of paramilitary forces.
Sources said six anti-riot vehicles are to be deputed in Anantnag town alone, along with the deputation of thousands of paramilitary troopers and J&K police personnel. ‘Election cells’ have also been established at major police stations in the south.
The EC last week even revised the poll timings from 7 am to 4 pm instead of the earlier schedule of 7 am to 6 pm. It is a move aimed at reducing the possibility of militant attacks and stone pelting.
There is also talk of clubbing polling booths for better security, a move opposed by all the political parties who say that not only would the move cause inconvenience to voters but also reduce the turnout.
J&K Chief Electoral Officer Shailendra Kumar appeared to agree with the parties.
“The election is not conducted to facilitate election security paraphernalia, it is conducted to facilitate voting,” he told ThePrint. “Voter convenience is the first challenge and requirement, and that is why there is a rule that a voter should not walk more than two kilometres to vote.”
Mehbooba’s fate
On the political front, the election is being seen as a referendum on Mehbooba. More so, as she had joined hands with the BJP to assume power.
The PDP used to hold sway in the now volatile areas such as Shopian, Kulgam, Pulwama and Bijbehara, all of which fall under Anantnag, but its association with the BJP and a resurgent Congress make it a stiff contest this time around.
As such, the PDP, like other mainstream parties in the Valley, is increasingly adopting a “radical” stand towards New Delhi. It has already vowed to protect Article 35A and Article 370 but even that may not be enough.
On Sunday, addressing a rally at Kapran, some 30 km from Anantnag, Mehbooba said that had her father been alive, the Jamaat-e-Islami would not have been banned and neither would the “army be mutilating bodies of militants making them unfit for funerals”.
“The PDP shut down the task force (Special Task Force) and POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act).
How many times have I removed the load from the heads of people being taken for forced labour?” she asked. “Do you remember or have you forgotten today? Have you forgotten that homes of those housing militants would be destroyed.”
For her closest challenger, Mir, Mehbooba has already lost the battle. The Congress has spread its domination to areas such as Dooru, Shangus and Divsar. It has also appropriated some of the PDP’s causes such as promising lesser Army presence and reviewing the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).
“There have been shutdowns when Mehbooba Mufti visited South Kashmir,” Mir said. “People here have not forgotten what she has done to them. She is talking about not banning the Jamaat and the mutilating of bodies. She is the one responsible for all of this.”
“The south will answer her soon,” he added.
Also read: Baramulla poll result will reveal just how much alliance with BJP cost Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP
A much delayed election, about three years. I hope Begum Mehbooba Mufti wins.