Thiruvananthapuram: As Kerala heads to a crucial Assembly election with a fragmented campaign agenda ranging from the Sabarimala controversy and man–animal conflicts to economic concerns, the central question dominating the political landscape is whether voters will grant the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF)—led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan—an unprecedented third consecutive term.
With polling scheduled for 9 April and results on 4 May, the election has high stakes for all major alliances.
For the LDF, which has lost most of its other bastions in India, retaining power in Kerala is crucial for its political survival. For the Congress-led UDF, which has been in opposition for the past 10 years, another defeat is not an option. And for the BJP-led NDA, an increase in vote share and victories in at least a few seats will be a key litmus test to expand its footprint in the state. In a battle that is crucial for everyone, the Congress and BJP are banking on the anti-incumbency sentiment, while the LDF is pitching for a third term for continuity of its development and welfare measures.
Political analyst Joseph C. Mathew says the LDF is witnessing a strong anti-incumbency wave. “The most important thing is the reaction to the government. The LDF is trying to change the topic to development and argue that continuity is necessary for it. But I feel there is a strong resentment against the present government,” Mathew said.
Another political analyst, C. R. Neelakandan, said the voting is bound to be impacted by the diversity of issues facing the electorate.
“Sabarimala might affect one section. For others, it could be inflation. Issues concerning many communities and caste groups, such as minorities and Christians, will also play a role in assembly polls,” Neelakandan said.
Continuity vs anti-incumbency
With the campaign slogan “mattarund LDF allathe” (who else is there besides the LDF?), the ruling LDF is leading a campaign centred on its development and welfare measures. The front, which started its campaign on Sunday minutes after the Election Commission of India announced the assembly poll dates, is also hoping to benefit from an early campaign. Of the 86 candidates the CPI(M) is fielding, 56 are sitting MLAs.
In 2021, the LDF secured 99 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, followed by the UDF’s 41 seats. The BJP-led NDA drew a blank but secured a 12.41 per cent vote share.
Announcing the candidates on Sunday, party state secretary M. V. Govindan listed all the projects that the government has rolled out in the past 10 years.
“We eradicated extreme poverty and ensured welfare pensions to 62 lakh people, and title deeds to 4.5 lakh, besides giving houses to 5 lakh families. In health and education, we achieved many milestones. In PSC (Public Service Commission) appointments, we were able to give jobs to many people in India. The LDF also had a tenure without power cuts. And we completed projects like GAIL and NH-66, which were once considered impossible. We also became a model government in crisis. We are hoping that the government that came to power in 2016 and 2021 will repeat in 2026 too,” he said.
However, Neelakandan said the LDF is also facing the unprecedented issue of several rebels contesting in different constituencies this year.
Last week, former minister and senior CPI(M) leader G. Sudhakaran left the party alleging he had been sidelined. The leader also announced that he would contest as an independent from Alappuzha’s Ambalappuzha constituency. Similarly, P. K. Sasi, former CPI(M) Shoranur MLA, who was ousted from the party last week after he inaugurated a “rebel convention” in Palakkad, is also expected to contest as an independent, while former Nilambur MLA P. V. Anvar, who was earlier an LDF-backed independent, is with the UDF in this election.
The UDF says it is confident as the Kerala government is facing the most anti-incumbency in India, which is because ruling front is repeating many MLAs.
Talking to the media on Monday, Leader of Opposition V. D. Satheesan said the party’s confidence comes from the victories it secured in all the bypolls (except Chelakkara constituency), the 2025 local body polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The UDF had won the 2022 Thrikkakara bypoll, the 2024 Palakkad bypoll, and the 2025 Nilambur bypoll after its defeat in the 2021 Assembly polls. However, the party also expressed its displeasure over the hurried announcement of voting in the state.
Talking to the media Monday, AICC general secretary K. C. Venugopal said candidates do not have enough time to campaign.
“Between the nomination and voting, there are only 10 days in effect, considering holidays. But the counting is on May 4. It would have been understandable if there was an urgency. The first phase elections are in Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, where the Congress is a key contender. The dates show that they reduce the days for campaigns,” Venugopal said, adding that the Congress is ready and confident that the party will win.
BJP’s aspirations
For the BJP-led NDA and its new chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the Assembly polls are a litmus test, deciding its future course in the state. The party has only been able to secure one Assembly seat in Kerala’s history—O. Rajagopal’s victory from Thiruvananthapuram’s Nemom in 2016—and failed to retain it in 2021.
But since then, the party has won its first Lok Sabha seat in Thrissur with actor-politician Suresh Gopi, and wrested control of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation in the 2025 local body polls. However, its vote share, which was 16.68 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, reduced to 14.71 per cent in the 2025 local body polls.
In 2026, the party started campaigning early in key constituencies such as Kasargod district’s Manjeswaram constituency, a seat the BJP lost in 2016 by just 89 votes; Palakkad, where the party is traditionally strong; and Nemom. These constituencies, considered the party’s ‘A-class’ constituencies, will be contested by K. Surendran, Sobha Surendran, V. Muraleedharan, and Rajeev Chandrasekhar, respectively, with the candidates starting their campaign much before the party announced their names.
The party is focusing its campaign on the promise of ‘Viksit Keralam’ (developed Kerala) with the support of a BJP-led central government.
Both Mathew and Neelakandan said the party’s prospects are still minimal in Kerala, with chances of victory in 0–4 seats, though triangular contests can be expected in around 15 constituencies, with the party being able to secure about 20 per cent votes in many of them.
Mathew said the BJP’s chances in a few seats also depend on the candidates fielded by other parties. For example, the Congress candidate in Nemom will decide how much support V. Sivankutty can get. Likewise, if the Congress fields a weak candidate in Palakkad, it will help Sobha Surendran, he explained.
“I see their chances as 0–4 seats in assembly polls. Constituencies such as Kazhakkoottam, Manjeswaram and Palakkad are places where they have chances. But even there, all factors should favour them. But in these places, the INDIA bloc logic may also work, as people might en masse support a candidate to defeat the BJP,” he said.
Shifting community sentiments
In addition to politics and development, different communities and pressure groups have also played a crucial role in the state’s politics. In the 2025 local body polls, the UDF’s victory was also boosted by the consolidation of minority votes.
For example, in the Muslim-majority Malappuram district, the LDF won only four of the 94 gram panchayats, compared to the UDF’s 87. The UDF also secured 14 of the 15 block panchayats, 11 of the 12 municipalities, and the district panchayat.
This marked a sharp contrast from 2021, when the LDF was able to secure support from the community. According to the Lokniti-CSDS survey, around 39 per cent of Muslim voters supported the LDF in the 2021 assembly polls.
During the local body polls campaign, the LDF and UDF had engaged in a battle with both claiming to be the lone ‘secular force’ in Kerala. While the LDF attacked the UDF over the partnership with Jamaat-e-Islami, the UDF targeted the LDF for being communal.
The controversies surrounding Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam chief Vellappally Natesan, who had made remarks targeting the Muslim majority in Malappuram district, were also considered to have helped the UDF. Representing the majority Ezhava community, Natesan is a close ally of the LDF.
The LDF enjoyed the support of 53 per cent Ezhava voters, up from 49 per cent in 2016. However, this too changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey says 32 per cent Ezhavas voted for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, along with 5 per cent of the Christians. The LDF had secured only one of the 20 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Though the BJP has consistently tried to woo the state’s Christian community, the local body results also showed that the community mostly supported the UDF.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
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