Mumbai: Ajit Pawar’s sudden death has left Maharashtra politics reeling and his faction of the Nationalist Congress Party staring at an uncertain future. Built around Ajit Pawar’s authority, the party now faces a leadership vacuum, and there is speculation over the faction merging with Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and talk of senior leaders drifting to other parties.
When Ajit Pawar split from Sharad Pawar in July 2023 along with 40 MLAs and few senior leaders like Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare, his party was built around his personal image. Now, the question being asked is, can the Ajit Pawar faction survive after him or will they merge with the Sharad Pawar faction.
If the party does opt to continue independently, the next question is of leadership. The second rung leaders—Sunil Tatkare, Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal—are all stalwarts, and analysts expect friction.
After the assembly elections and municipal council polls, the Ajit Pawar faction emerged stronger, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP had significantly weakened, triggering talks of whether the Sharad Pawar faction might merge with Ajit Pawar. Even during the municipal corporation polls, they had joined hands to fight the polls together.
In fact, asked about a reunion, Ajit Pawar had not denied the possibility and had said it would be discussed later.
In the upcoming zilla parishad and panchayat samiti polls, for which Ajit Pawar was travelling to Baramati for rallies on Wednesday, both factions of NCP had decided to contest together on the clock symbol, which now belongs to the Ajit Pawar faction.
“Looks like steps were being taken for both factions to come together as they were going to fight the zilla parishad elections on one symbol. So now the question is who will take care of the party. The factions will have to merge and someone from the family, either Rohit Pawar or someone else, will have to lead since Supriya Sule has revealed that she has more interest in national politics,” said political analyst Hemant Desai to ThePrint.
But political analysts believe senior leaders like Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare might flock to where they gain the most politically, not necessarily the Sharad Pawar faction.
“As far as members like Sunil Tatkare, or Dhananjay Munde or Praful Patel are concerned, I think they will prefer to go with the BJP,” Hemant Desai added.
In a scenario where the Ajit Pawar faction continues independently, analyst Abhay Deshpande said: “Many names can come up from Rohit Pawar to Supriya Sule to lead the party. It is too early to say anything but some will go to Congress or BJP. And people will have to adjust.”
The immediate fallout
Ajit Pawar’s death will necessitate a bypoll in Baramati and that is the first vacuum that needs to be filled. In 2024, Ajit Pawar had defeated his nephew Yugendra Pawar from the NCP (SP).
“Now the question is, who will lead Baramati and Pune, Pimpri Chinchwad as it was his stronghold. And since party was mainly concentrated in western Maharashtra, the (new) leader has to be from western Maharashtra,” said analyst Desai.
If the factions don’t merge, options for the next leader from within the family are wife Sunetra Pawar or sons Jay or Parth. But Jay and Parth Pawar are relatively inexperienced in politics and administration, and analysts don’t see them being given the mandate.
Sunetra entered politics when Ajit Pawar announced her candidature for the Baramati Lok Sabha seat against his cousin Supriya Sule. Though she lost, she became the BJP-led Mahayuti’s unopposed Rajya Sabha member.
In the background for many years, Sunetra was an active social and organisational worker in Baramati through women’s groups and welfare programmes.
Moreover, if the Ajit Pawar faction is to survive on its own, it needs to extend its influence in Solapur, Pune, and other pockets of western Maharashtra.
Ajit Pawar’s NCP also needs to decide if it wants to continue in the Mahayuti or be in the Opposition, where space is shrinking. If it does leave the Mahayuti (especially if the BJP goes it alone in 2029), Desai feels Ajit Pawar’s NCP is unlikely to join the Congress.
Another political analyst Prakash Bal disagrees: “I feel the NCP will have to eventually merge with Congress. Currently there is shrinking opposition space in Maharashtra and Congress is going down too. This can give an opportunity for Congress also to revive itself. Of course, for that Rahul Gandhi and Sharad Pawar will have to have big hearts.”
Leaders like Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare also have to make tough decisions now. Patel has never been a mass leader in Maharashtra and nor has Tatkare, even though he is Ajit Pawar’s party’s state president. He and his family are concentrated in Raigad district where they face stiff opposition from Shiv Sena Shinde.
Another close associate of Ajit Pawar, Dhananjay Munde, has regional clout in Beed but after allegations of his aide being involved in the murder of Beed sarpanch Santosh Deshmukh, Munde’s clout in Beed has declined.
Therefore for Patel, Tatkare and Munde, joining a big party like the BJP is a viable option.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: Ajit Pawar’s NCP reunion gamble fails in Pune & Pimpri-Chinchwad, BJP headed for majority