Dehradun: The 2022 Uttarakhand assembly elections are widely expected to be a contest between the incumbent BJP and rival Congress, the two main parties in the state. But the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) thinks otherwise.
Party supremo Mayawati is hoping to revive her fortunes in the state and, if not win the elections, give the other rivals a good fight. On Thursday, she addressed her first rally for the state polls, which are scheduled for 14 February.
The BSP has been focusing on the constituencies in its strongholds of Haridwar-Roorkee and Kumaon’s Terai region — which have a good chunk of the party’s main Dalit vote base — and has also fielded its old guard this election.
Leaders of the state unit have expressed confidence about a good showing, and the party possibly emerging as kingmaker.
But political analysts warn that the BJP is using its strategy of Hindu-Muslim polarisation this poll season, and while the BSP may give a tough fight, there is no guarantee that the Dalit-Muslim vote-swing would translate to a stellar performance.
According to poll statistics, the BSP support base has been depleting every election despite 19 per cent of the state’s population comprising Dalits — the number rises to more than 22 per cent in BSP strongholds — and 14 per cent, Muslims, who are also known to support the party. The Dalit-Muslim voteshare is around 55 per cent in the Haridwar area.
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Slipping voteshare
In the first Uttarakhand assembly election in 2002, after the state was carved out of Uttar Pradesh in 2000, Mayawati’s party had a voteshare of 11 per cent.
In the 10 years from 2002 to 2012, the BSP’s voteshare in the state remained almost intact, but plunged to 7.4 per cent in 2017.
The seats in its kitty too fell to nil in 2017 from 7 in 2002. In 2012, the BSP’s voteshare had risen to 12.19 per cent but it could win only three seats. In 2007, it bagged 8 seats.
In the previous state poll in 2017, Mayawati’s party was completely wiped out as the BJP registered a win in 57 seats of the 70-member Assembly. The BSP had then contested from 69 seats.
Old hands in fray
To revive the party’s fortunes this election, the BSP has brought out its old hands, especially in 23 seats of Haridwar-Roorkee and Udhamsingh Nagar, which is part of the Terai region.
The Uttarakhand unit is confident about reclaiming lost ground, BSP leaders said, adding that the old guard had been denied tickets in 2017 because of “anti-party activities”.
State BSP in-charge Naresh Gautam said: “We have fielded our senior leaders in almost every seat where we were strong and had been winning in the previous elections. They were not given tickets earlier mainly because of their reluctance to toe the party line.”
Former MLAs Mohammad Shahzad and Sarwat Karim Ansari have been fielded from Laksar and Manglaur, respectively. Both had won these seats in 2012 but were sidelined in 2017.
Subodh Rakesh, brother of former BSP MLA and minister Surendra Rakesh, who died in 2014, has also been nominated. Subodh is pitted against his sister-in-law Mamta Rakesh, who joined the Congress after the death of her husband. Mamta is the sitting MLA from Bhagwanpur. Subodh, too, had switched to the BJP in 2016 but returned to the BSP in 2021.
Mayawati has also given tickets to Aditya Brajwal, son of former MLA Haridas, from Jhabreda, and veteran leader Om Pal Singh from Ranipur. Haridas was among those denied a ticket in 2017 for alleged anti-party activities.
Another BSP veteran and two-time MLA Narayan Pal is in the fray again from Sitarganj constituency, where the contest is triangular with the BJP repeating its sitting MLA Saurabh Bahuguna and the Congress fielding Navtej Pal Singh.
“This election will see the resurgence of the BSP with a triangular fight, unlike what is being claimed by the two main political parties. We will give a tough fight to both the BJP and the Congress in 11 seats of Haridwar-Roorkee region and minimum 12 assembly seats in Udhamsingh Nagar and Nainital districts,” BSP candidate Karim Ansari told ThePrint.
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Banking on Mayawati
The BSP was banking heavily on Mayawati’s rally Thursday, with party leaders saying they believe it will stamp the fortunes of candidates in Haridwar and strengthen others to unsettle the poll calculations of the Congress and the BJP in 23-25 constituencies.
According to BSP leaders, their candidates are in a position to regain nearly half-a-dozen assembly seats and give a tough fight in 17 other seats of Haridwar and Terai. The BSP has fielded candidates in all 70 seats this year.
“Mayawati will address her first poll rally for Uttarakhand polls today. This will alter the poll equations, mainly in the plains of Haridwar-Roorkee and Terai. Behenji’s address will improve BSP’s prospects manifold,” said Gautam.
The six assembly segments that Gautam said the BSP has a maximum stake in are Bhagwanpur, Jhabreda, Manglaur, Laxar, Jwalapur and Piran Kaliyar. Each of these constituencies is currently held either by the Congress or the BJP.
‘BSP can make it a triangular contest’
A few political analysts in Haridwar agree that the BSP may spring a surprise this election. According to them, the BSP’s selection of candidates has increased its probability of victory as all former MLAs nominated by the party have strongholds in Muslim-Dalit regions.
“The Haridwar-Roorkee region has nearly 35 per cent of Muslim and more than 22 per cent Dalit votes. Earlier, when the BSP had won seven seats in 2002 and eight seats in 2007, most of these were from Haridwar, barring a few from the Terai belt. Even the three seats the party won in 2012 were bagged due to these leaders’ sway over the Dalit-Muslim combine,” said Haridwar-based political analyst Bhagirath Sharma, adding that the BSP is in a position to give a good fight in several seats.
But another political commentator, Sunil Pandey, doesn’t fully agree with the BSP leaders’ poll arithmetic. “It’s true that candidates are very strong this time but the big question is, will they be able to swing Dalit-Muslim voters in their favour? Even Mayawati’s rally cannot guarantee that. Because the BJP is going all out for Hindu-Muslim polarisation,” he said.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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