New Delhi: As it gears up for the assembly elections later this year, the BJP’s Himachal Pradesh unit is considering dropping 20 per cent of its sitting MLAs based on a massive performance review, sources in the party have told ThePrint.
According to sources in the BJP, the party has already conducted several performance reviews. The sources said the party is considering replacing the non-performing MLAs with new faces to help beat anti-incumbency.
However, the BJP has made it clear that it will fight the elections under Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur: It was the party’s national president, J.P. Nadda, who made the announcement on a visit to the state on 11 April.
The party, sources said, is banking on its “double-engine” government — a phrase that the BJP frequently uses to refer to its governments at the Centre as well as state — and its development policies at both levels to retain the state.
No party has come back for a second term in Himachal in the last three decades — a trend that the BJP hopes to change.
The BJP won 44 of the state’s 68 assembly seats in 2017, while the Congress scored 21.
Speaking to ThePrint, BJP’s Himachal Pradesh in-charge Avinash Rai Khanna admitted that the party was considering dropping 20 per cent of incumbent MLAs.
“The final process of review is on and non-performing MLAs will not be fielded,” Khanna said. “A final decision will be taken soon.”
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Beating anti-incumbency
This is not the first time that the BJP has decided not to field non-performing MLAs to beat anti-incumbency. The BJP’s Gujarat unit has been using this strategy since Narendra Modi’s chief ministerial days, and the practice has been adopted by party units in other states.
In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the party was said to be considering denying tickets to almost 25-30 per cent of sitting MLAs but had to change its strategy after a series of resignations in the party.
“In Gujarat, the entire cabinet, including the chief minister, was replaced ahead of the assembly elections to beat anti-incumbency. People want to give the BJP a chance but, at the same time, they get tired of the same old faces,” said a senior BJP leader. “In many cases, sitting MLAs too become complacent and stop performing. Our experience says that people are unlikely to vote for the same person twice.”
The issue of anti-incumbency is crucial for the BJP. In a major sign of trouble for the party, it lost the Mandi Lok Sabha seat and three assembly constituencies in the bypolls last November.
The loss came as a shock to the party because Himachal is the home state of BJP president J.P. Nadda. According to a party review, the defeat brought to the fore not only infighting and the neglect of winnable candidates but also anti-incumbency in the state.
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Internal surveys
The party is using internal surveys to test how popular sitting MLAs are to help decide whether to field them or replace them with new faces, a senior BJP leader said.
The BJP high-command has stepped in, with several meetings taking place to bring the organisation in sync with the government and to undertake a major review of the sitting MLAs keeping the anti-incumbency factor in mind, sources in the party said.
The BJP’s Himachal Pradesh in-charge Avinash Rai Khanna told ThePrint that the party has asked its sitting MLAs for a ‘report card’ of the work they have done.
“Performance is key, which is why we asked all our MLAs to prepare a report card when the government was three years old and another one after four,” Khanna said.
Himachal BJP leaders claim that the party had already done its groundwork for its election campaign, in which the central leadership played a decisive role.
“The recent win in Uttarakhand has also energised the cadre and they are quite confident of coming to power once again as we did in the other hill state. The focus here too will be on double-engine government,” said a senior BJP leader.
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The AAP angle
These assembly elections are going to be slightly different, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) throwing its hat in the ring after its resounding victory in Punjab.
The BJP seems to have foreseen the possible challenge, and it has been on a recruitment spree lately, trying to get a number of AAP leaders to join the party.
Many in the BJP claim that the central leadership has asked the state party brass to ensure the induction of “like-minded” people, and to “dismantle” the organisational structure the AAP is trying to build.
The aim, a party leader said, is to make sure the elections remain a two-cornered race between the BJP and the Congress.
“It is in our interest to ensure the state elections remain a two-way contest. We don’t want a triangular contest and, for this, efforts are being made to ensure the AAP is not able to build its organisation in the state,” said another leader.
Avinash Rai Khanna said a ‘Maha Sampark Abhiyan Yatra’ was under way, in which sitting MLAs and even those who contested unsuccessfully were meeting voters to tell them about the work done by the government.
The BJP leader said inflation may not have been a factor that lead to their loss in the November bypolls but opened their eyes to the problem of anti-incumbency.
“By losing those bypolls we have learnt a lot. Our loss had a lot to do with the anti-incumbency against some of our MLAs,” the BJP leader said. “But losing a byelection doesn’t mean that we will lose the assembly election. This is the strength of democracy. BJP did not indulge in misusing the state machinery unlike what is done in West Bengal.”
(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)
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