New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be headed for what appears to be yet another landslide win, surging past the halfway mark on its own, and if early trends of the 2019 Lok Sabha election results are to be believed, even crossing its 2014 tally.
Latest CNN News18 numbers show the BJP is now leading in 284 seats, and the Congress in just 54. In the 2014 polls, the BJP had won 282 of the 543 seats, while the Congress suffered its worst ever defeat, winning just 44.
At just past 10.30 am, the BJP-led NDA stands at a more than comfortable 339 seats, while the Congress-led UPA is stuck below the 100-mark, at just 91.
The ‘Modi factor’ and a weak, splintered and largely directionless opposition seems to have tilted the scales in the BJP’s favour fairly decisively.
Also read: Lok Sabha results Live: BJP leads in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress trails
The big state
The biggest surprise, however, has been Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP seems way ahead of the much-hyped Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance. Of the 80 seats, NDA is ahead in 55 seats and the alliance in 24.
This state had been crucial to the BJP’s fortunes in 2014, when it alone won 71 seats here. The party, however, was worried about the caste arithmetic of an SP-BSP alliance — the Yadav, Jatav plus Muslim formula — affecting it. If the current trends remain, it shows the BJP’s emphasis on chemistry may have trumped the math on the ground.
Heartland states
In the three heartland states which the BJP lost to Congress in the 2018 assembly polls — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh — the party has decisively trumped its rival.
In Rajasthan, early trends show a wiped out Congress with NDA leading in all 25 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, trends suggest the party is currently at its 2014 tally — 27 of 29 seats. In Chhattisgarh, it is ahead in 8 seats as against Congress in 3.
New territory
Not only has it retained its old base, the BJP has entered fresh territories — West Bengal and Odisha — which it has been aggressively targeting.
In the former, the party is leading in 17 of the 42 seats — up from merely two seats it won the last time. In Odisha, where it has a lone MP, it is ahead in 8 of the 21 seats.