Clearly, India’s relations with each neighbour have a tenor and texture of their own, but each is bound by a shared history, shared boundaries, languages and tastes, which will always ensure they cannot be ignored in Indian foreign policy. There are also some common takeaways from the past seven years: that strongarming of smaller neighbours only pushes them towards bigger powers, and that providing them with a common forum that is constructive makes them stakeholders in regional ties.
To begin with, India must regain its role as a prime mover of SAARC. Despite the pessimism, SAARC survived three decades in the face of its biggest challenge, India-Pakistan tensions, before finally succumbing to it in the last few years. This will hurt the South Asian construct and further loosen the bonds that tie all the countries together, thereby making it easier for China to make inroads. It should be remembered that despite China’s repeated requests, SAARC was the one club it never gained admittance to. For all the Narendra Modi government’s promotion of alternative groupings—such as the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC), BIMSTEC, the BBIN initiative, and Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR)—none will come close to SAARC’s comprehensive cogency.
In addition, the impact of the pandemic must spur closer coordination between South Asian countries, led by India. Apart from the overall GDP slowdown, global job cuts that will lead to an estimated 22 per cent fall in remittances for migrant labour and expatriates from South Asian countries, there is an expected loss of 10.77 million jobs and $52.32 billion in the tourism sector alone due to Covid-19. Russia’s war in Ukraine has also unleashed fears over energy, food and fertilizer security for the region. World Bank reports that have estimated the losses have all suggested that South Asian countries work as a collective to set standards for labour from the region, and also to promote a more intra-regional, transnational approach towards tourism, citing successful examples including the ‘East Africa Single Joint Visa’ system, or similar joint tourism initiatives, as in the Mekong region or the Caribbean islands.
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In the longer term, a shift in priorities towards health security, food security, climate security and job security will benefit from an ‘all-of’ South Asia approach as well.
As countries show a growing preference for protectionism across the world, regional initiatives will be the more trusted median between globalization and hyper-nationalism. While the world is divided between regional trade arrangements—such as the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement or USMCA (North America), the South American Common Market, or MERCOSUR for its Spanish initials, the European Union, African Continental Free Trade Area, Gulf Cooperation Council and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP (ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea and Australia)—India’s only regional trading agreement at present is the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) with SAARC countries. Building the region as an energy consumer cartel, or a labour supplier cartel, could accrue more benefits all around in South Asia than what competition and under-cutting does.
Second, India must recognize that picking sides in the politics of its neighbours makes little difference to China’s success there, and the perception that the Indian government is interfering in the internal politics of its neighbours (Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan) has faced severe pushback. Contributing to the well-being of the people in these countries, as India does best in its role as the first mover on humanitarian needs,20 does more to promote India’s interests. Building much-needed connectivity on the ground, including rail, land and border trade posts, should be another priority area, as should improving infrastructure on the Indian side of the land and sea entry points.
Third, bringing the US in to counter China’s influence in the region will only mean India’s interests will be further sidelined in the region, and will hurt Delhi’s projected image as the net security provider and the humanitarian leader in its neighbourhood. As an Indian diplomat put it, when dealing with Beijing bilaterally, New Delhi must match China’s aggression and counter its moves with its own. When dealing with China in South Asia, however, India must do exactly the opposite; in short, India must be the ‘un-China’.
Fourth, New Delhi and the Modi government in particular must take a hard look in the mirror as neighbours are less likely to do as they say and more likely to do as they do. India’s internal issues, such as the dilution of Article 370, the Citizenship Amendment Bill, the National Register for Citizenship and detention centres for illegal residents, and cases of mob lynching, are all being discussed intensely in capitals in the neighbourhood, from Male to Dhaka and Naypyitaw. This will impact their conversations with New Delhi, and India must strive to lead by the power of her example, rather than by any wise counsel she gives. It is hard for New Delhi to lecture Sri Lanka on the rights of Tamils; the Maldives on arbitrary detentions; Nepal on constitutional promises to Madhesis; Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the treatment of their minorities; and Myanmar on the Rohingya issue, when the government is not seen upholding those ideals itself.
Finally, there is a need for a paradigm shift in how the Indian establishment views its neighbourhood. India’s next generation must be educated on the proximity, scale and importance of each South Asian country, and encouraged to travel and conduct exchanges with them. Above all, the image within of a ‘ring of fire’ engulfing India must transform to a circle of trust, one that becomes a force multiplier for India on the world stage.
This excerpt from ‘India’s Tryst with the World’, edited by Salman Khurshid and Salil Shetty, has been published with permission from Rupa Publications India.