Now the BJP’s best efforts in Karnataka will be to break the Congress-JD(S) alliance. The way to do it is to let them form the government, with all its contradictions.
BS Yeddyurappa’s failure to secure a majority in Karnataka is, in the long run, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s gain.
If Yeddyurappa had formed the government by making some Congress and JD(S) MLAs defect, it would have cemented a pre-poll coalition between the two parties for the 2019 general elections. That is not what PM Narendra Modi needs in Karnataka in 2019.
It was the Modi government that argued before the Supreme Court that the Karnataka trust vote should be telecast live on TV to ensure transparency and fairness. In retrospect, we can see why.
The BJP knew Yeddyurappa could not win over enough opposition MLAs to pass the floor test. The only saving grace was a swan song of a speech by him, claiming martyrdom. It needed to be telecast live to gain any political brownie points amidst a situation wholly embarrassing for the BJP.
This is by no means the end of political instability in Karnataka. B.S. Yeddyurappa has been chief minister for two days; let’s see how long H.D. Kumaraswamy lasts. A social media joke wondered which marriage will last longer — Harry-Meghan or Congress-JD(S).
Unstable coalitions, Raj Bhavan intrigue, defections and poaching have all been integral to Karnataka’s politics. The clear majority that the Siddaramaiah-led government had in 2013 was an exception to the rule.
At this point, we can’t even say whether H.D. Kumaraswamy will pass his floor test given that the BJP will be out to poach Congress and JD(S) MLAs even now. They will love to see the JD(S) and Congress embarrassed in the way Yeddyurappa was today.
If the Congress and JD(S) had fought the election with a pre-poll alliance, they would have swept the state. If the Congress and JD(S) fight 2019 in a pre-poll coalition, it goes without saying that they would substantially damage the BJP, which won 17 of 28 seats in the state in 2014.
Prime Minister Modi can therefore not afford the Congress allying with the JD(S).
It was difficult for the BJP with 104 seats to offer the CM’s chair to H.D. Kumaraswamy, though they would have happily offered him the deputy CM’s chair.
But now the BJP’s best efforts in Karnataka will be to break the Congress-JD(S) alliance. The best way to do so is to let them form the government. They will fall under the weight of their own contradictions and competing ambitions. The Vokkaliga-dominated JD(S) and the OBC-centred Congress will be fighting each other daily. Being the bigger party but the supporting partner, the Congress will not let Kumaraswamy become a tall leader who will eventually undermine it. The factionalism within the Congress will also result in undermining Kumaraswamy.
The BJP could let the Congress-JD(S) alliance play out for 9-10 months or so, and engineer a coup just before the 2019 elections to break the Congress-JD(S) unity. Doing so right now is not possible.
Conversely, Rahul Gandhi will have to make sure he keeps the Karnataka Congress in check and doesn’t alienate the JD(S) so much that it goes into the BJP’s waiting arms. The game is on.