Rajinikanth has decided to say no to electoral politics, again. After weeks of keeping everyone in suspense following his announcement that he would launch a political party in January ahead of the Tamil Nadu assembly election in 2021, the superstar has taken a U-turn in yet another filmy style stunt.
But Rajinikanth’s probable final exit from politics, which he never entered in the first place, was a foregone conclusion. Even when he had tweeted about his plans on 3 December, there were murmurs in the power corridors about a wait-and-watch approach. This is the second time that the actor is going back on his decision to launch a party. He had made a similar announcement in 2017 and then went back on his decision.
Both the Dravidian parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), are heaving a sigh of relief after Rajinikanth’s decision to heed the ‘warning from God’. The atheist camps in the DMK and other offshoots of Dravida Kazhagam movement founded by Periyar E. V. Ramasamy must be secretly praying to make Rajinikanth stay away from politics. The reason is not far to seek.
Also read: The political U-turns and flip-flops by superstar Rajinikanth since 1996
The coast is clear for DMK
The DMK had every reason to be worried about Rajinikanth’s proposed political entry. Going by the present mood, the ruling AIADMK seems to have earned the ire of voters. The direct and immediate beneficiary of this voter disillusionment would be the DMK. There is little political space for national parties in Tamil Nadu. The DMK poll managers and strategists were calculating the extent of loss of popular vote in the upcoming assembly election if Rajinikanth entered politics. But since that threat is over now, the DMK has every reason to be happy and thank their stars, and the superstar.
According to poll watchers, it was not possible for Rajinikanth to sweep the polls in Tamil Nadu. Shivaji Rao Gaekwad, as he was named and whose ancestors hailed from Maharashtra, had cut his teeth in spirituality in the Ramakrishna Math and rose to the pinnacle of popularity in Tamil Nadu, especially among the supporters of the Dravidian parties whose revulsion for theism is too well known.
It was, therefore, a surprise that Rajinikanth supported the DMK-TMC alliance in the 1996 assembly election. Then in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, he supported the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but could not help it win any seat in Tamil Nadu. After Narendra Modi’s spectacular victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, he became more vocal in supporting the BJP. He even propounded the idea of introducing a ‘spiritual element’ to politics, whatever that means. This was, albeit wrongly, interpreted as supporting the pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP.
And yet, all this time, his prevarication was clearly visible. Being a full-time cinema person, Rajinikanth could not convert his popularity into popular votes for any party, much less contribute in increasing seat tally. It was at this stage that he must have been advised by his friends to enter politics and test the waters, which is what he announced he would do in 2017. His million-strong but unorganised fan clubs were converted into Rajini Makkal Mandram (RMM) — a makeshift platform that was to be launched as a political party.
The AIADMK was relatively weak, the towering personality of Jayalalithaa was not there, and her acolyte V. K. Sasikala was ousted from the party’s top post. Unlike 2020, the moment in 2017 was the real ‘now or never’ situation for Rajinikanth. But it was an abrupt never in 2017.
Also read: Rajinikanth has charisma, but promise of ‘secular & spiritual politics’ confusing, say experts
Future of Tamil Nadu politics
While it is true that the Covid-19 pandemic and the actor’s extremely tight shooting schedules have placed a very high premium on his health, these things were not unknown to the veteran actor. It is, therefore, a big mystery as to what could be the real reason behind his decision to not launch his party. One reason could be the realisation that his new outfit could not have got sufficient seats to form a government. He also might have realised that his party would have resulted in cutting into the votes of all the parties, which would have resulted in a hung assembly after the 2021 election. He probably did not want to carry this burden on his conscience for the rest of his life.
But the political situation in Tamil Nadu seems to be no better with or without Rajinikanth. While the DMK and the AIADMK are not too sure of winning sufficient seats to form a government on their own, the BJP appears to be gaining ground, but not enough to get the magic numbers in the assembly. The Congress and other parties should consider themselves lucky if they cross the two-digit figure and manage to save their security deposits. Yet, one can safely wager that politicians of every hue and all political parties will make a beeline to Rajinikanth to seek his endorsement.
Tamil Nadu politics was always dominated by silver screen icons. From Annadurai to Jayalalithaa, Karunanidhi and MGR, every chief minister has had a long stint in the film industry. But all of them had the comfort of belonging to a political party, which essentially gave them the required administrative and technical support during elections. They could come to power and use it to increase their support base in the party. The upcoming 2021 election will be the first one without any noteworthy film industry connection, now that Rajinikanth is out of the race.
But much depends on the emerging situation and there could be many more surprises. The political scene in Tamil Nadu has just begun to unfold.
The author is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. Views are personal.
DMK is loosing badly and after 2021 DMK would disintegrate completely
Shekhar Gupta… Journalists like him are the reason Indians could be successful overseas bit never INDIA. ITS NOT NEW. Journos like him (Lutyens media) were always busy in finding round about ways of attacking nationalist forces. They take money from foreign sources and corrupt politicians to promote anti-India sentiment. If they are not able to convince, they confuse people. Run campaigns to vilify anybody trying to serve the Nation. They even attack the pride of being an Indian. This article is written with an intent to support DMK because of obvious reasons.
Why no mention of Kamalahassan?
Mr Chari’s analysis must be respected, particularly when he speaks on the BJP. However, it does look like he has not read the situation following Rajini’s withdrawal from the electoral battlefield in Tamil Nadu very correctly. His article is dated 1st January.
What seems very probable, now that there are positive signs of the AIADMK and the BJP patching up their differences on the CM nominee and also the alliance itself, is that Rajini will soon announce his full support to this alliance and call on the people of Tamil Nadu to vote for it.
When that happens, all chances of the DMK, carrying the inevitable Congress on its back, coming to power would have practically shrunk into oblivion. If, M.K. Azhagiri also enters the fray in whatever manner, and Owaisi, who the DMK invited to their meet and then spurned, takes away a large chunk of Muslim votes, the DMK could as well be writing its own epitaph, even before February rolls in .
What kind of nonsense writing. DMK voters were with them. Only Aanmiga vaadis were ready to shift from AIADMK if Rajini enters. Now that is gone AIADMK advantage. In fact, post Karunanidhi exit, Azhagiri will split DMK votes, which makes easy for Edapapdi Pazhaniswamy.
Sensible of Rajnikant. The man has undergone a kidney transplant and even his regular job is now a strain leave alone getting into the hurly burly of politics. The stress and strain of politicking, canvassing etc would have been enough to kill him, even without Covid. Covid will only speed up the process. The author obviously has no clue about organ transplantation, it’s complications and the lifelong care required. So he is looking for red herrings and inventing conspiracies where there are none.
Mr Chari, I thought you were an astute political observer. I feel that I am wrong after reading your reading of the situation in TN. I neither like DMK nor AIADMK. Both are corrupt. I want both of them to go. I am not a cine goer – nor am I am admirer of Cinema stars. They do all sort of gyrations to make money for themselves and for their nth generations. . In the process they also enjoy. But genuinely I thought Rajni Kanth would come and save TN from the evil clutches of Dravidian parties. He has truly betrayed the Tamils who gave him everything that he possesses now . All his punch dialogues were strategically calibrated to promote his persona and fill up his coffer, this is the inescapable conclusion one can draw looking from hindsight. So be it. You say people are dis-satisfied with AIADMK. Notwithstanding my dislike towards Dravidian parties for their corrupt practices, I must say Eddapaddi is doing a very good job. He is down to earth, understands the need of the people and goes out of the way to meet them. He has nearly consolidated his position in the party. He has total control over his cabinet. He is not a rabble rouser. He does not indulge in rhetoric. He is plain, simple, straightforward and a person who delivers. When he took over, the first task he undertook was “kudi maramathu” ( dredging the lakes and water ways). Today it is yielding rich dividends. His management of Covid was perfect. His concern for the poor is real. I will not comment about corruption which is the true DNA of Dravidian parties. Therefore your analysis that Tamils are against AIADMK govt is incorrect. Please shed your angularities and read the situation as it should be read by impartial observers. On the whole, between DMK and AIADMK, Eddapaddi will win hands down. All the more because Stalin is incompetent. I live in a place which is now part of Chennai Corporation. This area was earlier a village panchayat which was atrocious. A decision was taken by Stalin to include my area as part of City Corporation. The President of Village Panchayat, a man from SC community belonging to DMK, reportedly confronted Stalin, who was the DY CM and also in charge of Local Admin. Stalin backtracked. My area got included when Jaya took over as CM. I am just quoting one incident to prove his competency level. Truly educated people want a third front which can clean up the muck enveloping the Tamil politics. With Rajini running away, Kamal is the only choice. Kamal is intelligent, articulate, knowledgeable, committed, understands the need, speaks the language of technologist to root out corruption -which is the need of the hour. Do you know what is happening now? 65% of the entire expenditure is reportedly intercepted by political brokers for their benefit. It is the peoples’ money that is being swindled. If that can be eliminated, as Kamal says, we can create One trillion economy for TN. Imagine the impact of One Trillion economy for TN – it will exponentially enhance the per capita for every house hold and the process of elimination of poverty will certainly begin. This is our hope. Kamal is a good choice – but he does not have the organizational infrastructure to translate his support base into vote bank. But if there is a mass movement against corruption and if people can recognize who can root out corruption, Kamal may make it. Remember the mass movement in 1977 that threw out Mrs G lock, stock and barrel. Did the Opposition have any organizational infrastructure barring the erstwhile Jan Sangh and RSS which were all but emasculated by the draconian Emergency Powers.