Climate Week, the biggest annual climate event of its kind, was held from 22 to 29 September in New York City. The event takes place every year in partnership with the United Nations General Assembly, the United Nations and New York. Its timing alongside UNGA, when the world’s leaders had gathered, underscores the importance accorded to climate change and its global impacts.
Next up is the UN Climate Change Conference COP 29, which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November this year. While aspects like ozone depletion and rising sea levels with their global consequences are routinely discussed, the impact of climate change on the national security calculus of a nation finds very little mention.
Climate change is not just an environmental issue but has far-reaching implications for national security and military operations worldwide. As global temperatures rise, ice caps melt, water levels rise, and extreme weather events become more frequent, the armed forces must adapt to a new operational landscape that’s far removed from conventional threats. To remain relevant, military planners must analyse how climate change affects operations at the strategic, operational and tactical levels, the challenges to resource allocation, and the need for innovation in military planning.
Threats for the military
One of the primary ways climate change impacts military operations is by altering geopolitical dynamics. As climate-related disasters increase, nations are likely to face heightened instability. For instance, water scarcity, food shortages, and mass migrations can lead to conflicts, forcing military forces to engage in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. Just like ‘force multiplier’, climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’—that exacerbates existing tensions in volatile regions—a term coined many years ago by Sherri Goodman, the Secretary General of the International Military Council on Climate Change and Security.
Beyond humanitarian crises, the effect of climate change—for example, the melting Arctic Sea—presents new strategic challenges. As the ice recedes, new shipping routes will open up, increasing access to untapped natural resources. This shift will intensify competition among nations such as the US, Russia, and China. All of them are keen to establish a foothold in the region. Similarly, global warming will require the Indian military planners to rethink the concept of ‘campaigning season’ which forms a crucial part of the security calculus, both at the strategic and operational levels. Milder winters and less snowfall are both an advantage and disadvantage.
Rising temperatures and increased humidity can strain military personnel, leading to decreased performance during training exercises and deployments. For example, in the summer months, high temperatures coupled with humidity can reduce the effectiveness of soldiers in the field, necessitating adjustments in training and deployment schedules. Diversion of already scarce resources to Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief (HADR) missions further compromises operational readiness. The crash of an IAF helicopter on 2 October during flood relief operations in Bihar is a case in point. This can impact troop morale and overall combat effectiveness when the same platform or crew has to perform diverse tasks, leading to ‘mission creep’.
Extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, landslides and wildfires also threaten military installations and infrastructure. Bases in vulnerable areas may face destruction, impacting readiness and resource allocation. The 2001 Bhuj earthquake, which razed most of the military garrison to the ground, required reconstruction. The Ministry of Defence needs to assess the vulnerabilities of its garrisons to climate change, especially in coastal and avalanche-prone areas, which may necessitate expensive modifications or even relocations. These needs could divert funding and resources from other critical military priorities, potentially impacting overall national security.
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Scope for innovations
Logistical challenges also arise as climate change influences resource allocation. Military operations depend on a stable supply chain, and climate-related disruptions can threaten this stability. Flooding or avalanches can damage critical transportation infrastructure, making it difficult to move troops and supplies. As the frequency of extreme weather events increases, military planners must account for these disruptions in their logistics strategies. Furthermore, climate change may lead to resource scarcity, particularly water and energy supplies.
Military operations are resource-intensive, and a lack of clean water or reliable energy sources can severely hinder operations. The Armed Forces must invest in alternative energy sources and sustainable practices to maintain operational readiness and resilience. This shift not only makes sense from an environmental standpoint but also enhances operational security by reducing dependency on vulnerable supply lines. For instance, the Indian Army is exploring renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind power for its bases, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and enhancing energy flexibility. Innovations in energy storage and smart grid technology may also improve efficiency and reduce vulnerability to energy supply disruptions. The shift to solar energy from diesel generator sets in our border areas is one such step—saving fuel transport costs while being eco-friendly. This convergence of military security with environmental security is the way forward.
A holistic Climate Strategy is needed to integrate climate risk into the decision-making processes. Such an approach would encourage collaboration with other ministries and organisations such as the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). Consultations with the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) would smoothen the way for the Army to make the transition from fossil fuels to green energy for its large transport fleet. The Indian Air Force (IAF) has been test-flying Antonov AN-32 transport aircraft on 10 per cent blended biodiesel, with plans to extend this experiment to all aircraft, including helicopters and fighter jets.
The issue of climate change transcends national boundaries, necessitating international cooperation. Military operations increasingly involve partnerships with other nations, NGOs, and humanitarian organisations. Collaborative efforts can enhance disaster response capabilities and facilitate knowledge sharing about best practices in dealing with climate-related challenges. Multinational exercises focusing on disaster response can help build interoperability with the armed forces of friendly foreign countries, enabling quicker and more effective responses to climate-related crises. It was also one of the major lessons learned from the 2004 Tsunami that hit the Indian Ocean region. These military-to-military exercises can also foster diplomatic relationships, potentially mitigating tensions that may arise due to resource scarcity or environmental degradation.
For the Indian military to confront these non-traditional climate challenges, proactive planning and investment in technology will be required. International collaboration will be essential for maintaining national security in an increasingly volatile environment. In this new era, understanding and addressing climate change is no longer just an environmental concern, but a fundamental aspect of military strategy and national security.
General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM SM VSM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)