In a stunning display of strategic initiative, Ukraine has done the unthinkable. It launched its own special military operation inside Russia last week—over 900 days after the latter began its military ops in Ukraine. The incursion occurred in Russia’s Kursk region and was the first time the country had been invaded since World War II. Kursk is not far from Kharkiv oblast, where Russia has been trying to make a military breakthrough since February 2024.
It is incredible how Ukraine managed to shock its much bigger adversary. The nation has, after all, been described by its allies as outgunned and outmanned and facing considerable difficulty rotating its brigades. But what’s more shocking is that Russia, supposedly the world’s second-biggest military superpower, was completely unable to fend off the attack.
The pace and the depth of the Kursk invasion can be understood when compared to the Russian advance this year. Since 2024, Russia has managed to capture only about 1,300 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. In comparison, the Ukrainians claim to have taken 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory in just one week.
How did Ukraine manage to do it?
At the outset, there are at least three dimensions to this incursion.
The first is diplomatic. Fundamentally, this incursion is about getting more leverage for future negotiations. Ukraine has dominated in the Black Sea region but Russia has been leading in land battle, even though the pace of advancement has been sluggish.
Ukraine has turned the tables with its unexpected incursion in Kursk. It, too, has grabbed Russian land. Now, it is Moscow’s turn to appeal to the United Nations and issue statements on international law.
There’s now scope for a land-for-land negotiation, where both countries will be equals. In the best-case scenario, the Ukrainian side would try to use Kursk as a bargaining chip for Crimea as it has multiple utilities and advantages. It is not only Vladimir Putin’s prized strategic achievement from 2014 but also controls crucial maritime trade links with the Black Sea. However, a more realistic scenario would be to negotiate it for the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
The Donbas region doesn’t appear to be a feasible quid pro quo because 900 days of fighting have destroyed most of its two parts, Donetsk and Luhansk. While a major portion of Luhansk has been occupied by Russia, a large part of Donetsk has also fallen prey to it. Ever since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, this region has experienced one of the most painfully prolonged trench-style warfare from World War I times.
Ukraine has been trying to make Crimea untenable for long. The Kursk invasion will be best utilised in strengthening Kyiv’s position in the peninsula and the final negotiations.
It must also be noted that after the successful incursion of Kursk – and the lack of a strong response from Russia – Ukraine could make inroads into Belgorod, where similar offensive tactics have come to light lately.
Second, the military aspect of this incursion is what truly boggles the mind. From what’s visible in the geolocated footage, it can be seen that Ukraine launched this operation with primarily two types of Armoured infantry vehicles—wheeled Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs) such as the United States-made Strykers, and tracked ICVs such as the US-made M2 Bradleys and the German-made Marders. What was also striking was Germany’s position, which so far has been wary of escalating the war and has consistently denied Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
This time, though, the country officially expressed no objection to the Ukrainian side using the ICVs against Russia. This change in Berlin’s attitude complements the various statements made by French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron has consistently argued that sending French troops on the ground is not ruled out. Poland already has been more hawkish on Russia. If the European powers blur the red lines of their assistance to Ukraine, the war is likely to enter a different period, with tremendous kinetic warfare from both sides.
Coming to another aspect of its military dimension, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Special Military Operation in Kursk saw lightning success because Ukraine could exploit Russia’s military planning vulnerabilities.
Moscow’s first planning weakness becomes apparent while analysing the role of Alexei Smirnov, the governor of Kursk. His warnings of increasing Ukrainian troops in the region were not paid attention to by the Russian military authorities in time.
Next, Ukraine chose to attack the region that lay between the zones of two military task forces whose line of responsibility didn’t overlap. The Ukrainians identified this gap and stormed ahead.
This once again shows a lack of preparedness and flexibility on the Russian side to deal with imminent attacks. Moscow perhaps became a victim of its perception of the Ukrainians as run down, and the idea that Western support for the country was waning.
The third aspect of this invasion is informational. It is now becoming clear that the Russian side is starting to pay the price of a sunk-cost fallacy about its mismanaged war strategy. Not only did it have an unclear picture of the Ukrainian side’s preparedness, but it also seemed to have made mistakes in assessing how far Ukraine was willing to go. Similarly, it now seems to dawn upon analysts that Ukraine, too, has been slowly and steadily blurring the red lines. First, by launching an unthinkable invasion of Russian territory. And second, by proving repeatedly to its partners that the threat of Moscow’s nuclear response is more sabre-rattling than an actual risk.
Also read: As another Trump era looms, NATO’s Ukraine challenge and India’s diplomatic dance
Russia’s response
It is interesting to see that Russia has not given a fitting response to this invasion of their territory. On one hand, Putin has invoked the UN charter and International Law and asked the UN to condemn the invasion. On the other, Moscow has refused to call it an invasion at all.
According to latest updates, Putin has ordered the Federal Security Service (FSB) to step in, calling it a counter-terrorism operation.
This means two things. One, that the Russian side is obviously trying to downplay the gravity of the situation. Two, that Putin actually doesn’t (and rightfully so) trust the MoD anymore. The inability to repel Ukraine’s attack could also lead to the removal of General Valery Gerasimov, who remains the commander-in-chief of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
Also read: What prompted India’s balancing act in Switzerland? Ukraine peace summit’s wrong messaging
China’s charm offensive
One of the most surprising developments comes from Russia’s friends with no limits, China.
In its officially released statement, Beijing has simply asked all sides to exercise restraint instead of upholding Russian territorial sovereignty or condemning Ukraine. But on the other hand, it is still supplying Moscow with dual-use technology and fiscal help.
It does seem that the Chinese wish to reassess the damage of this ‘no limits friendship’ on their economic ties with Europe. The contours of China’s intentions and the limits of its help remain unclear. The final verdict for now is that China cannot be trusted, based on what it has said to either party.
Also read: Ukraine doesn’t need a navy to dominate Black Sea. Its drones are making Russians retreat
Modi’s maiden Ukraine trip
The most interesting angle to this entire episode is PM Narendra Modi’s 23 August visit to Ukraine. In a classic balancing act, India decided to visit Ukraine after the Modi-Putin summit in July could not yield favourable results for its reputation as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war. The targeting of a children’s hospital in Kyiv, just as PM Modi was embracing President Putin, became a controversial undoing in India’s committed diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to bring the war to an end.
Back then, Modi’s visit was meant to highlight India’s mediating prowess in what seemed like an endless war, and bring the two sides to the negotiating table. It was a feat only a neutral player like India could have achieved. It has excellent ties with the West and has had an enduring relationship with Russia, after all.
The situation has changed radically in the weeks that have followed. Not only has Ukraine shocked Russia but has also flabbergasted the international community by showcasing its audacity. It has shown that it can conduct a secret operation even amid war fatigue, lack of soldiers, and shortage of weapons.
Modi’s visit is more crucial now than ever. War dynamics show that both Russia and Ukraine are readying their best bet ahead of the negotiations that will likely occur if former US President Donald Trump makes a comeback. It is the perfect time for India to up its mediation game, and explore investment opportunities in the reconstruction of Ukraine along with European partners. New Delhi can indeed play a meaningful role in the rebuilding of Europe.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
I can’t believe I am reading this reporting and analysis. I thought Indian Journalists are well acquainted with Russia history. Whoever knows Russia history and Russian people, understands it very well that Russia will not let go an inch of its territory.