Truth to tell, we got our biggest headline of Verdict 2024 when the trends became established just after noon and news broke that Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Chandrababu Naidu.
We will obviously take the point further and first list the three outcomes that follow. And then, before we go into a deeper analysis of these and other takeaways, list four rants too. The three outcomes first.
The first, that Indian politics has returned to its default post-1989 pattern of coalitions after a decade’s interregnum. Second, that the BJP under Narendra Modi looks beatable. And third, that the Congress, with a tally close to 100, has revived. A short break for my rants now.
• All those who said India’s democracy was dead and buried, over, that we were no-hopers under fascist rule, please sit down and drink Kool-Aid. You can gulp a beta blocker with it if you think you need it. But consult your doctor first.
• All those who said India’s voters are now such polarised, fried-in-desi-ghee Hindutva nuts that they will keep voting against Muslims, and thereby for Narendra Modi, please say sorry to the 642 million people who went out to vote in an almighty heatwave. Also note that the BJP is trailing in Ayodhya (Faizabad).
• The third is the most important, and I should probably have put it first. Promise yourself in future never to undermine the credibility of India’s election system. Whether it is the EVMs, the institution of the Election Commission, the election commissioners themselves, or the lakhs of personnel who toil to make this marvel possible. Peacefully, calmly and credibly. The Indian election system is a global, public common good. Never knock it. For perspective, the Mexican elections, held at the same time as India’s, saw 37 candidates assassinated. Not one was harmed here. Mexico’s per capita income is nearly four times that of India.
Surely, there were many complaints and criticisms of the EC’s actions, and the institution has much to answer for. These were raised in wider public debates in the media, including prolifically on ThePrint. To conflate that with institutional capture or a likely theft of elections is a fantasy and a bad one.
• And the last, a request to bankers, investors and fund managers, as this is simultaneously published in Business Standard. Look at the market convulsions. Please promise, especially those millions who trust you with their hard-earned money, never to let your voting preferences determine your actions on the markets. Political analysis, I agree, has a heady sex appeal. But it carries risks, to your reputations and your investors’ money. So leave it to people like us. We aren’t as smart as you, but we have that one attribute an innocent and impassioned market watcher may not: healthy political scepticism. The most appalling and scary phenomenon I noted in this campaign was fund houses and brokerages going out on election yatras and writing copious reports promising 300-plus for the BJP. That was your wish as voters. Your investors are paying for it now.
Rants over, we return to politics. This verdict signals the return of normal politics. The stage is now set for the next battles: the state elections of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Just after that, hold your breath, Jammu and Kashmir, where the BJP has won only two out of five seats. For each, this result has a dire warning for the BJP.
In Maharashtra, its tally is less than half of 2019, although it had one more ally this time (the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party). More importantly, both of its allies — or the breakaway factions it prised away from the originals — are now dead in the water. The Maharashtra voter has made it clear that she sees the originals as the real Shiv Sena and NCP. The BJP is now in an unfamiliar situation of having to shore up its own defences as the MLAs of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP weigh a homecoming.
If Maharashtra is the biggest prize a rejuvenated Opposition will seek, Haryana is a direct threat to the BJP. In 2019, it swept all 10 seats in the state with 58.2 percent of the vote. Now, it’s lost five to a rising Congress. The last-minute change of chief minister bombed. The prospect of losing a state next to Delhi will worry the BJP.
In the third major state headed to the polls, Jharkhand, the equation has now changed. Against the sweep of 2019, when it won 11 out of 14 seats, the BJP has now lost three, all to the Congress-JMM coalition, all in tribal areas. If this momentum continues, the coalition will see a chance of bucking anti-incumbency. Of course, the BJP will probably review the wisdom of keeping Hemant Soren in jail.
These three state elections will be the lung-opener as a new Indian Political League begins after Parliament is constituted. The pace will be relentless, and not just the election to follow in the Capital in January. Again, the wisdom of keeping Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia in jail will need to be reviewed. Linked to that, what does the new government do with the two jailed “radicals”, Engineer Rashid and Amritpal Singh, who’ve won with huge majorities in Baramulla and Khadoor Sahib respectively?
From politics, we shift to governance. First of all, while there is zero doubt that a BJP-led coalition will have Narendra Modi as prime minister, this won’t be a BJP government and cabinet but an NDA one.
This hasn’t been the case for a decade. In fact, most of the time the two Modi governments did not even have an NDA cabinet minister besides the late Ram Vilas Paswan. The doctrine of necessity and survival will now make the BJP concede space to allies, especially Chandrababu Naidu. Prepare also for renewed demands from both Naidu and Nitish for special status for their states. They now have leverage.
Odisha is much more than a consolation prize for the BJP. This is its first win in the state, and it has secured a clear majority. For a party mostly seen as one of the ‘heartland’, it is also another coastal state, the first in the east. But its ambitious southern march has been stopped, its favourite target, Mamata Banerjee, is stronger, and the losses in Manipur, Nagaland and Meghalaya threaten it with the prospect of a Congress revival there.
Actually, the upshot of this verdict can be stated in just two words: game on.
I pray that with the revival of democracy, there will be a revival of the fourth estate within the country which has all but lost character the past 10 years. Barring a couple of internet platforms whose owners were made to face the dreaded institutions, every press and media agency has genuflected before Modi and changed course to remain in his good books. If Shekhar Gupta credits this election with the revival of democracy, he must also pledge to revive his professional community to re-establish its non-partisan attitude while covering news and events before presenting them to the people.
and what about the voter turn out in entire country? what about the voters who were not allowed to vote even after they had the voter IDs? what cheap politics did the politicians play on the name of religion and caste but not on what they developed and provided to citizens? what about chowkidar letting go mallya nirav and choksi out of country after ditching govt. banks with billions of rupees? even after they controlled the election commission, courts, police and above all the media, and running IT cell, .. loss for bjp in their own place in ayodhya with 80% of hindu population… having a temple built… why so… that’ll answer the question on how democrat is india…
Mr. Gupta, India’s democracy may not be dead but it has been badly beaten and bruised during BJP’s last two terms. Secondly, voters have been polarised; elections results of the recent past prove this. Thirdly, anyone half awake can see that the EC is compromised. Even the selection process for the commissioners has been amended to ensure bias. And just because there is a worse example in Mexico, doesn’t mean Indian elections have been impartially conducted. If not physical, political assassinations did take place here (e.g., Surat, Indore)
Kudos to Mr. Shekhar Gupta or such a brilliant analysis of post election results and the consequences .Alike it is my conviction domocracy exists in every Indian roots and whoever has tried to be autocratic or diistatorial will vanish. Indian lives and grows in diversity. We have seen highest growth and development under coalition governments. true Shekhar we are back to coalition era, tolerance and accommodation. Your write up is unique.
India itself is a coalition. Layered across many textures. True, there were moments in UPA II when coalition compulsions became a derogatory term, but, in the main, how did non single party governments in Delhi hurt either normal governance or economic growth. Those governments could not have done something like Demonetisation. Avoided answering tough questions on Ladakh or the pandemic. Constructed a new Parliament House without a minute’s discussion in Parliament. I think we need to revisit this entire concept of strong governments with brute majorities. Recall the multiple missteps of PM Rajiv Gandhi with 414 lampposts.
So according to this democracy means a fractured mandate, crippled government, horsetrading, mid term elections….and a clear mandate by people leads to dictatorship…so a banana republic is what should be called voice of the people and a clear mandate is majoritism