In the feverish bazaars of Patna and the dusty lanes of Muzaffarpur, a cryptic slogan has slithered into the electioneering ether: “Teer hi laalten hai, laalten hi teer hai.” Translated, it whispers, “The arrow is the lantern, the lantern is the arrow.” At first glance, it reads like a Zen koan, a philosophical knot to unravel the illusion of duality. But in Bihar’s cauldron of caste, kinship, and cunning, this phrase is a political dagger—aimed squarely at the heart of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s perennial pirouettes.
The arrow is the election symbol of his Janata Dal (United), a party that has zigzagged alliances more times than the Ganga has meanders. The lantern belongs to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Yadav fortress of Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose son Tejashwi now carries the torch of opposition fire.
The phrase went from Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) rallies to WhatsApp forwards, capturing the cynicism gripping Bihar’s 7.4 crore electorate during the 2025 Assembly polls. It mocks the seamlessness with which Nitish’s NDA coalition—bolstered by the BJP’s organisational sinew—mirrors the RJD’s populist playbook. Both promise sops to the same weary masses: freebies for the faithful, jobs for the jobless. Yet, as Phase 1 voting wrapped on 6 November with a record 66.91 per cent turnout, the highest since 1952, the phrase hints at deeper flux. In a state where loyalty is liquid, it signals that symbols no longer bind; voters, especially the pivotal “M-Y” blocs, are decoding their own riddles.
The old “M-Y”—Muslim-Yadav, the RJD’s ironclad 30-35 per cent vote bank—is clashing with a new axis: Mahila (women), and Yuva (youth), the NDA’s bet on demographic dividends. With polling now complete and results due on 14 November, Bihar teeters on outcomes that could cement continuity under Nitish or unleash a Tejashwi resurgence.
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Nitish’s flip-flop legacy as electoral equaliser
The teer-laalten slogan isn’t mere doggerel; it’s a barometer of voter fatigue.
Nitish Kumar, the “sushasan babu” (good governance uncle), has switched alliances thrice since 2015, ditching the BJP for the RJD in 2015, rejoining the NDA in 2017, then flipping back to the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in 2022 before realigning with the BJP last year. Each somersault has blunted his arrow’s edge, rendering it indistinguishable from the RJD’s flickering lantern in the eyes of the disillusioned.
“Teer hi laalten hai” isn’t just a taunt from Paswan’s cadres in the 29 seats they contest under the NDA; it’s a confession from JD(U) defectors, as seen in viral clips from Arwal and Siwan, where local residents shrug that “both lights lead to the same dark alley of unkept promises.”
This symbolic fusion amplifies the M-Y showdown. The old M-Y—Muslims (17 per cent of voters) and Yadavs (14 per cent)—has been the RJD’s bedrock since Lalu’s 1990s social justice surge, a bulwark against upper-caste dominance. In 2020, it delivered 75 seats to the MGB. But the new M-Y flips the script: Mahila, empowered by Nitish’s liquor ban and welfare web (cylinders at Rs 2, scooters for girls), turned out at 69 per cent in Phase 1, outpacing men’s 61.5 per cent and tilting 1.4 million more votes NDA-ward. Yuva, Bihar’s 40 per cent under-30 bulge, craves the 10 lakh jobs Tejashwi dangles via his 10-point agenda, yet sways toward the NDA’s infrastructure gloss—expressways, medical colleges—as a proxy for aspiration.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), contesting 190 seats as a wildcard, muddies the waters further. His anti-corruption crusade appeals to urban youth, but early tallies peg the JSP at a modest 4-6 per cent share, potentially splintering MGB votes in Yadav pockets.
As one Patna rickshaw-puller quipped amid Phase 1’s record rush: “Arrow or lantern, it’s the same rickshaw—overloaded with promises, under-fuelled with delivery.” With 243 seats at stake, this riddle could yield a clear victor or a chaotic collage.
Scenario 1: NDA’s fortress holds & Mahila-Yuva triumph
The most probable outcome, according to several pre-poll and early trend analyses, is the NDA’s retention of power, scripting Nitish’s fourth term. Specific seat projections vary widely and are best omitted until official EC results are declared.
Phase 1’s gender skew—women delivering the NDA a decisive turnout edge—foreshadows this. Bihar’s 51 per cent female electorate, long sidelined in the patriarchal fray, has weaponised the ballot. Nitish’s Mahila Samvad sabhas, coupled with cash-transfer schemes, LPG subsidies, and self-help-group initiatives, resonate in rural strongholds such as Valmiki Nagar and Madhubani.
Yuva consolidation strengthens the NDA narrative. Despite Tejashwi’s job blitz, the NDA counters with its Viksit Bihar pitch: employment via agro-industrial hubs, vocational training, and rural start-up incentives. In Seemanchal’s Muslim-heavy yet youth-saturated belt, micro-targeted campaigning and booth-level mobilisation aim to neutralise the RJD’s old advantage.
Outcome: Stability, though Nitish’s arrow dims symbolically as the BJP’s lotus increasingly dominates coalition imagery. The RJD could hold its Muslim-Yadav bastions but struggle to broaden its base among EBC and Mahadalit voters.
This victory would affirm the new M-Y’s primacy—Mahila-Yuva as the new engine of continuity. Yet it risks complacency: Bihar’s GSDP growth remains below the national average, at around 4-5 per cent, and migration-driven remittances still underpin rural survival.
Scenario 2: Old M-Y roars, youth jobs ignite revolt
Should the MGB defy the trends, Tejashwi Yadav could yet rise as Bihar’s phoenix, toppling the NDA edifice. While no major poll currently predicts such an outcome, a surge in youth turnout or urban discontent could narrow margins. The old M-Y endures: Muslims, stung by the BJP’s CAA shadows, flock to the RJD in Kishanganj’s minarets; Yadavs, 14 per cent but ferociously mobilised, hold Purnea’s ploughshares tight.
But it’s Yuva disillusionment that tips the scales. Bihar’s millions of semi-employed and underemployed youth, many pushed into out-migration to states like Delhi, Punjab, and Gujarat, view Nitish’s welfare schemes as tokenistic unless tied to durable job creation. Tejashwi’s “10 niyamit rozgar” vow resonates as a symbolic counter to this exodus, especially in districts such as Vaishali and Saran, where local industries have stagnated.
A Tejashwi-led coalition, possibly with Congress’s 20-25 seats and Left support, could attempt a revival of welfare politics centred on employment and secular identity.
Outcome: A youth-fuelled reset, but fragile coalition dynamics could trigger instability, especially if caste balancing overrides governance priorities.
What if there’s a fractured mandate?
The wildcard is a fractured mandate. While most pre-poll analyses favour the NDA, a split vote involving the JSP, AIMIM, and independents could lead to a narrow finish.
In such a scenario, the slogan’s prophecy—Teer aur Laalten ek ho gaye—could come full circle. Nitish, eyeing a record tenure, might recalibrate yet again for “secular stability.” Alternatively, the BJP could assert dominance or back Paswan’s faction to maintain continuity.
Such churn bodes ill for governance. Bihar’s Ease of Doing Business rank (26th) and investment inflow remain weak, and recurrent political flux could stall reforms. The women and youth voter blocs, now the core of the electorate, may recoil from uncertainty and punish opportunism in future cycles.
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Beyond symbols, toward substance
As the sun sets on polling—from Araria’s border bustle to Patna’s urban pulse—Bihar’s riddle resolves not in arrows or lanterns, but in the M-Y metamorphosis. The old guard—Muslim-Yadav resilience—clashes with Mahila-Yuva momentum, where welfare whispers drown job roars. Trends tilt toward NDA stability, but silent undercurrents among youth and women could still spring surprises.
Tejashwi’s “do-or-die” moment tests Lalu’s legacy; Nitish’s endurance tests Bihar’s patience. Amid the rhetoric of ‘Viksit Bihar’ and ‘Vikas ki guarantee’, the teer-laalten phrase lingers as caution: symbols blur when substance fades. Voters, decoding their own light, may yet pierce illusion—yielding continuity, upheaval, or anarchy.
On 14 November, Bihar won’t just elect an assembly; it will redefine its democratic dawn. For a state long lampooned as “BIMARU”, the true lantern might finally flicker toward equity, mobility, and accountable governance, not merely endurance.
Hasnain Naqvi is a former member of the history faculty at St Xavier’s College, Mumbai. Views are personal.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)