What happened in April 2020 on the north bank of Pangong Tso and why were we taken by total surprise? Such questions are being asked in muted tone, lest we rile and fall out of favour with those in power. What has happened on the ground is abject intelligence failure because we failed to read any signs of Chinese intentions.
While we all know that the Chinese maintain high levels of institutional secrecy and the outside world rarely gets a peek into their minds, what is disheartening is that India could not pick up on troop movement and buildup along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While strategic intelligence is difficult to gather and can often be drastically wrong, it is the tactical-level intelligence failure that aches us the most. The tactical-level intelligence is largely gathered through a simple ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) model—a basic mechanism deployed while holding defences, especially along the borders.
Have we learnt from the past?
The Kargil Review Committee did a commendable analysis of the entire conflict of 1999 because it was related to intelligence failures and management of our borders. In its report, the committee lamented the absence of any institutional mechanism governing interactions between different intelligence agencies. Although the heads of different agencies interacted regularly as per SOPs in vogue, they collectively failed to give any input on such a large-scale infiltration by the Pakistani forces. The report was also a scathing criticism of the ‘turf wars’ and the lack of inter-agency cooperation.
Collectively, all agencies failed to see through the deception at work as both the governments (India and Pakistan) were in the process of building peaceful relations. The famous bus diplomacy was a huge media event—the Army believed it was not possible for the Pakistan Army to risk an infiltration through the rugged and inhospitable terrain of Dras and Batalik sectors. Few who spoke of the Pakistani intention of cutting the Kargil-Leh national highway in summer months with a view to isolate Leh and the rest of Ladakh, were quietly snubbed. The intelligence agencies, including the senior leadership, were ‘cognitively predisposed’ into believing the opposite and accordingly fed this ‘make believe’ truth to the Army.
The rude shocks of May 1999, resulted in over 560 soldiers killed in action and injuries to over 1,500. Thankfully, the US administration intervened in time and the Army too started winning back the lost ground.
The Kargil Review Committee Report was taken very seriously by the government of the day and for once it appeared that finally India would have resolved its intelligence-related complications. Massive amount of work was done within the government on one side and the armed forces on the other. New structures were created to coordinate intelligence related work. However, all this merely led to new appointments and billets—no visible improvement in quality of strategic or tactical intelligence was achieved.
In last 70 years since our Independence, we have had several major intelligence failures, both at the borders and internally.
Also read: Bring ‘Make in India’ for intelligence agencies. Stop overrelying on foreign vendors
External failures
From Sri Lanka—where we simply failed to read the minds and intentions of the LTTE, resulting in catastrophic failure as ‘our boys’ turned enemies—to Punjab where the ISI managed to fuel a deadly insurgency in one of India’s most prosperous states, India has paid heavy price for a number of external intelligence failures since Independence. In Punjab, the agencies had failed to give any input to the Army before Operation Blue Star. In Kashmir, while the signs of a growing unrest were quite discernible after the bungling of the 1987 assembly elections, we failed to assess the gravity and sheer audacity of the uprising. The ISI lulled us into slumber and pumped in weapons and ammunition in the Valley that could arm two Infantry Divisions worth of troops.
Also read: China’s soft power is failing in Australia, despite opening Confucius institutes all over
Internal failures
It’s not just external intelligence gathering where India has not performed up to the mark. Even internal intelligence failures have had a deep impact on the national security of the country. Be it the Babri Masjid demolition that led to riots in large parts of the country that shredded India’s social fabric or the hijacking of IC 814 and the subsequent release of Masood Azhar and two other terrorists, intelligence failures have strained India’s progress.
Parliament attack and the 26/11 Mumbai attacks can be termed as two of the biggest intelligence failures. The planning and coordination involved in Parliament attack lasted for nearly eight months, between Pakistan and modules in Delhi, but our agencies had no clue or warning.
Also read: India keeps focussing on a future China threat. But just looking east is bad security policy
PLA breach goes undetected
The summer of 2020 saw a very aggressive and openly belligerent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flex its muscles on an otherwise peaceful LAC. In hindsight, it can be said that there were indications of such an attitudinal shift for six to eight months. However, our intelligence agencies were probably seeing too much into the political bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and did not watch closely the developments taking place on the borders.
Our tactical-level ISR simply failed to assess or analyse any troop movement. The PLA, on its part, did not even try any deception or take measures to hide its concentration and subsequent movement of troops. High-altitude troop movement cannot be hidden as soldiers need sufficient time for acclimatisation to simply survive. Tanks, guns and other heavy war equipment too needs to move up along narrow road arteries — these can be constantly kept under surveillance and observation. As the events kept unfolding on the north bank of Pangong Tso, India was just reacting on the ground. The loss of a Commanding Officer and 19 other soldiers added agony to over 90 badly bludgeoned earlier by the PLA troops in riot gear.
Also read: India should be in no hurry to pull back troops in Ladakh — ex-Army chief Gen V.P. Malik
Can we fix responsibility?
This is a question often asked by those who wish to see action taken post a crisis. However, our track record is not very good. We have a long tradition of not punishing failures. Not one person in the position of responsibility has ever got sacked for failing, not once has any responsibility been fixed on numerous intelligence-oriented debacles. India is too soft on individuals in higher positions and the same is true of the organisations entrusted with the task of safeguarding the territorial integrity of the country. Deep down, introspection is needed among a plethora of agencies involved in the task of intelligence gathering — Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Intelligence Bureau (IB), and the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) among others. Some serious meditation and self-analysis also needs to be done by the border- guarding forces, including the Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force.
The silver lining amid all these mega intelligence failures is the resilience and fortitude of the Indian soldier who has never let down the nation. He stands tall and motivated even in face of adversity, ready to sacrifice his life, yet again, for the failure of those who are never held accountable.
Maj Gen (retd) Yash Mor @YashMor5 has served in South Kashmir and Punjab in counter-terrorist operations. He is the CEO of Save the Himalayas Foundation, an NGO working on environmental issues of the Himalayan region. He writes on strategic and leadership issues. Views are personal.
Yes,the main set back in this standoff is intelligence failure. Government should even focus developing this wing and make them effective.or else there presence is of no use to government.
The reason for failures can be summed up simply..lack of tandem.
Each intelligence has a sole purpose of national security.
If they cannot meet this goal then there is no point of having them.
Looks like people of Ladakh are far superior when it come to intelligence gathering. With no fancy gadgets no satellites no schmoze no 007 experience they warned during kargil and the present crisis.
On top of that they were hand in hand with soldiers against enemy forces.
This is patriotism sincerity and commitment to the nation which obviously lacking in intelligence agencies civilian and military both.
A simple mechanism of having high ranking officer from each intelligence agency civilian and military both should be on the same team with one single goal.
This way they know what the stakes are, have their own intelligence input and different perspective. All get the credit at same time as well.
Guess paper pushing, turf war and taking is their agencies goal.
Fighting a valiant war after intrusion attack and then losing brave soldiers is foolishness not heroism.
I question the intelligence of those who say they needed ‘intelligence’ to warn them that the PLA could move in. Consider the facts. We (rightly) step up building roads right up to the LAC; we (rightly) oppose CPEC, which passes through PoK; we (rightly) annul Article 370; then we claim that we will take over PoK soon, and then our home minster shouts in Parliament that we will do the same with Aksai Chin – rather foolishly, whilst having neither intention nor ability to do either, but what the heck, sounds good in the media. Meanwhile – also rather foolishly – neglect to man the LAC, preferring to keep our defenses 80-100 km behind the LAC, and send in just the occasional patrol…. that too at a reduced frequency thanks to COVID (the stock excuse in India for all failures and delays these days). We forget the history of repeated Chinese transgressions on the LAC, the most recent being Doklam, just 3 years ago. And then we are surprised that the Chinese have walked in, and that we did not have the ‘intelligence’ to warn us that they might. This is an apology of an article, just goes to prove how uncommon common sense is among our exalted defense establishment. How such paragons rise to the higher echelons of defense command is a wonder in itself. No wonder we are in this mess.
Because India is reactive and active. With a “chalta hai” attitude, you can only be reaction. Another reason why we are weak.
Indian intelligence failure is cultural. A reflection of India’s entirely unaccountable, corrupt, incompetent, delusional and insouciant Government, Administration and Courts
Yes, it is more important for NSA to wear sunglasses and play Bond. Army cannot walk away from ownership from sufficient ownership of the intell failure. What are senior army brass like the author doing- it is their job to engage the civilian leadership rather than complain post retirement. We get it that every army article has to end by heaping praise on jawans and young officers- who pay the price for failures of both army leadership & politicians.
Truth is a very inconvenient element (which cannot be destryed( ,bioth peace and war. Applicable both to GOI and Defence Forces.
This is not only an important article, but also an eye-opener to a very urgent need. The military organization, especially the Indian military is the most disciplined militaries in the world. The strive to maintain strict discipline must involve fixing responsibility for any indiscipline. There are two main grades of military posts: 1. Officer 2. Non-officer. From this article it seems it’s in the officer-grade where the accountability is missing. That definitely needs urgent fixing. One of my friend who worked in BSF (posted in J&K, Punjab) jokingly revealed that the non-officer grade jawans of India fight to the death whereas a very few officer-grade jawans do that whereas in Pakistan the officer-grade guys are very patriotic, but the non-officer ones are not so. He also mentioned that the reason for India’s win over Pakistan is mainly this. So this problem needs an immediate fix.
I think our Indian society has this ill: no officers are penalized for their mistakes. There are very few instances of actions against IAS, IPS, IFS officers; no doctors in India has been punished; very few politicians are punished.
While you are at IT(MASTEK,WIPRO, HCL, INFOSYS, TCS, CLEAR TECHNOLOGY ETC ETC ETC), go back( pun intended) to 83. That will help you fix the complete issue.
Thank you very much for opening a very important subject for criticism. In addition to all the above important points one point may be added. The work attitude of Indians . We have many satellites watching the boundary of India . But the person who is supposed to monitor the images transmitted by satellites keep watching his mobile instead then in that case even god cannot help.
While intelligence failures are easy to enumerate, as lay public, we would love to read about the successes too.
Govt should periodically have current/former intelligence agents publish nuanced accounts of the workings and missions of the agencies.
Emphasis on the word *nuanced* so we don’t end up having John Abraham playing the role of Dr. Kalam.
That’s a very bad idea in my opinion. Ex raw chief himself said that we are known by our failures and that we will never known of good spies and that’s a good thing. Intelligence is something we should not talk about often and thump our chest to. Remember MI6 was made public officially in 1986 whereas it was founded in 1909. India too could be having a secret intelligence agency who knows and that shouldn’t ever be made public imo.
I agree with what you are saving Mohak. However, given the pressures of the society we live in where there is a 24×7 need to be seen as “cool”, especially on social media platforms, it is indeed a very difficult ask.