In the next few days, both the BJP and the Congress will release the names of their candidates for 37 Rajya Sabha vacancies from nine states. On the face of it, this looks like a routine exercise. But this time it is complicated and could prove politically era-shifting — especially for the Congress party. Will it be able to give the Rajya Sabha the much-needed vocal power?
The list of candidates will shape the character of the Rajya Sabha for the next three years. Will the BJP nominate senior and eminent party activists who can strongly defend the Narendra Modi government policies and counter Opposition charges during debates?
Similarly, the Congress list will indicate Rahul Gandhi’s mood. Does he want the Upper House to replicate the mood and aggressive style of the Lok Sabha on sensitive political issues?
Seniors on the Treasury benches are keenly analysing whether Rahul Gandhi wants the 4 February-style aggressive posture to continue in the Rajya Sabha — the style of gheraoing the seat of power in the first row, where the Prime Minister sits. The Congress mindset appears clear.
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Congress’s assessment
Both Houses must reflect one strategy: a harsh approach to root out the BJP from power in 2029. A mega master plan is being evolved. The first step is to nominate tough Congress leaders who can aggressively take on the Modi government.
In its internal assessment, the Congress believes the Modi government is weak, facing anti-incumbency after 12 years of what it calls fatigued governance and a flop show in international relations. Rahul Gandhi feels that in the Lok Sabha he has able Gen-Z MPs like Manickam Tagore (Tamil Nadu), Jothimani (Tamil Nadu), Varsha Eknath Gaikwad (Maharashtra) and some Punjab MPs who can hound defectors from the Congress and bounce on them — such as Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jitin Prasada and Ravneet Singh Bittu.
Rahul Gandhi believes he has received strong media coverage, both inside and outside Parliament, and that this has helped create a public mood favourable to the Congress and negative towards Modi ministers. He and his party MPs are proud of the bold, theatrical “martial arts” gestures they used in their Lok Sabha speeches.
Rahul Gandhi and his party MPs are proud of the bold, theatrical “martial arts” gestures they used in their Lok Sabha speeches. Gandhi amplified this by drawing a jiu-jitsu analogy and comparing it to Donald Trump’s firm grip/handshake style to describe how external forces — such as the US and China, as well as Hardeep Singh Puri and Anil Ambani’s names appearing in Epstein files — have put PM Modi in a political “grip” and “chokehold”. He believes such references have gone viral in reels and shorts. He now wants similar dashing and aggressive speeches in the Upper House.
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Building a new gang
Rahul Gandhi has identified 10 to 15 such youth Congress leaders. But he is facing stumbling blocks from seniors such as Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. A senior Rajya Sabha MP says the Upper House is meant to be a mixture of both generations.
Rahul Gandhi’s quick retort is that many Congress leaders are too afraid of Modi and get scared of the RSS and BJP.
In the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi has built a gherao gang to corner Modi. He now wants a similar gherao gang in the Rajya Sabha.
How keen is Rahul Gandhi to replicate the Lok Sabha style of chaos in the Rajya Sabha? This could reshape the character of the Upper House, traditionally known for knowledgeable and erudite debates. The strategy is to reduce it to a shouting den, just like the Lower House.
With deadlines approaching, Rahul Gandhi has to decide who his trusted confidants will be. The last date for filing nominations is 5 March. He must choose who will be sent to the Rajya Sabha to create pressure, corner the government and, if necessary, create pandemonium.
Like in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi wants the Upper House to create chaos — pandemonium, anarchism, even rowdy scenes such as shouting at the Chair or throwing papers at the presiding officers. In the next two years, the Congress faces the threat of losing its position as the principal Opposition party in the Rajya Sabha.
Shrinking in Rajya Sabha
The Congress currently has 25 MPs in the Upper House — just one above the number required for Mallikarjun Kharge to remain Leader of the Opposition. The party is expected to lose some seats in April 2026, even if it gains a few from states where it is stronger.
It is likely to gain three seats from Karnataka, two from Telangana, and one each from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. But overall, the Congress is in a precarious position and must depend on allies in several states. Time and again, it has undermined the contribution of local leaders who drive the success of the party in their respective states.
In Maharashtra, the Congress wants its lone seat for itself and does not want to concede it to Sharad Pawar’s faction. In Tamil Nadu, the situation is different. Alliance dynamics and the Dravidian political model matter. The DMK is not ready to accept a North Indian face if it clashes with its “son of the soil” approach.
A probable list of Rahul Gandhi’s choices includes names such as Pawan Khera, Meenakshi Natarajan, Supriya Shrinate, Kanhaiya Kumar, Kunwar Jitendra Singh, Praveen Chakravarthy and Amitabh Dubey.
On the other hand, Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge are said to prefer a balance between seniors and juniors. Their possible list includes experienced leaders such as Ashok Gehlot, Anand Sharma, Abhishek Singhvi, Bhupesh Baghel, K Raju and TS Singh Deo.
The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the biennial elections to fill 37 Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant in April 2026. For the Congress, whose numbers are shrinking, this is not routine. By 2027, its strength in the Rajya Sabha could decline further.
The NDA is moving steadily towards a majority in the Upper House.
Whichever way one analyses it, the Congress wants to be aggressive. Rahul Gandhi wants a fighting, confrontational Rajya Sabha. Can he get enough support?
R Rajagopalan is a veteran journalist and a political analyst. He tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant Dixit)