The Quad summit is set to be held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. And it will garner significant attention due to geopolitical implications involving the member nations of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. This informal strategic group, formally known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, was established to address a range of security challenges. Unlike NATO, this grouping was, and is, not aimed at any country. Its upcoming meeting – originally planned to be held in India – will provide a high-profile platform for addressing key issues in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
The summit’s outcomes are likely to include a reaffirmation of the Quad’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, strategic and economic agreements, and enhanced diplomatic engagement with regional partners. However, the effectiveness of these outcomes will depend on the ability of Quad members to navigate their differences, especially over Ukraine and Gaza, in the broader geopolitical context.
International observers will keep their eyes on the summit, closely watching the Quad’s plans to address complex challenges in the Indo-Pacific and other crucial regions. While the group is not anti-China per se, Beijing will likely be the proverbial ‘elephant in the room’.
Implications of location swap
President Joe Biden’s decision to host the Quad summit in his home state of Delaware on 21 September, along with the shift of location from India to the US, are significant developments with both symbolic and strategic implications. It can be seen as a gesture of goodwill and a reflection of the strong bilateral relations between New Delhi and Washington. It also underscores the importance the US places on its partnership with not just India but the Quad as a whole.
Next, the choice of location could help generate positive media coverage. It could bolster domestic support for the current administration’s foreign policy initiatives, achievements and commitment to international alliances, thereby enhancing the Democratic Party’s fortunes in the US presidential elections in November.
The change in the summit’s location might also reflect a recalibration of roles within the Quad. This could be a strategic decision to address current regional dynamics or to balance the responsibilities and leadership roles within the grouping. The implications of this swap would depend on what roles each country takes on during the summit, and how these roles align with their strategic priorities. Irrespective of the outcome of the US elections, it more or less guarantees a presidential visit to India in the early part of the Narendra Modi government’s tenure.
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Key areas of discussion
The 2024 Quad summit’s primary focus will likely be on the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly China’s growing influence. Members have consistently emphasised the importance of maintaining a rules-based international order and ensuring that regional disputes are resolved peacefully. At this summit, the Quad will probably reiterate its commitment to counterbalancing China’s assertive policies while advocating for diplomatic engagement and conflict prevention.
Economic security is a crucial component of the Quad’s agenda. It will certainly include strategies to enhance economic resilience among member countries, such as diversifying supply chains and investing in critical infrastructure. Initiatives like the Quad Vaccine Partnership and the Quad Infrastructure Coordination Group will be highlighted as examples of successful collaborative efforts to tackle global challenges.
Climate change is another pressing issue that will likely be discussed at the Quad summit. Given the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters and their impact on regional stability, members might focus on collaborative efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable development. Integrating climate policies into economic strategies will be crucial, and might involve joint projects or frameworks to support clean energy transitions.
Quad members may also focus on enhancing their defence and security cooperation— though it’ll be tricky to avoid the ‘Asian NATO’ tag. This could involve joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of common strategies to address regional threats. The summit may also address issues related to maritime security, given the importance of safeguarding sea lanes and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific.
Given the global focus on health security after Covid-19, ongoing and future health crises are likely to be discussed as well. A review of the progress of the Quad Vaccine Partnership and exploring new initiatives to strengthen global health systems is probable. Combined efforts to prepare for and respond to pandemics and similar Black Swan events, along with improving healthcare infrastructure, should be high on the agenda.
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Analysing possible outcomes
The 2024 Quad summit will particularly serve as a platform for strategic messaging and will use this opportunity to highlight the collective resolve to address regional threats and promote rules-based international order. This messaging will be directed not only at regional actors but also at global audiences, signalling the Quad’s role in shaping international norms and policies. To that end, it needs to increase its engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and other regional partners and stakeholders such as the smaller island countries. This will help build broader coalitions in support of a stable and secure Indo-Pacific.
While the Quad summit is likely to produce positive outcomes, there are inherent challenges and limitations. Differences in national interests and priorities among Quad members could affect the implementation of agreed-upon initiatives. Additionally, the Quad’s ability to influence regional dynamics may be constrained by the actions of major players such as China. Balancing the diverse interests of member countries while maintaining a unified approach will be a key challenge.
Moreover, there is a chance that the summit will be perceived as a ‘lame duck’ affair. This perception will largely depend on how effectively it addresses key issues, the outcomes achieved, and the broader political and diplomatic context.
If the summit results in meaningful agreements and advances in the Quad’s strategic goals, it will probably be seen as a success. Conversely, if it fails to address major concerns or deliver desirable outcomes, it might be deemed superficial. The effectiveness of the summit will ultimately be judged on its ability to produce tangible results and strengthen the Quad’s role in addressing regional and global challenges. Whatever the outcome, it is certainly a triumph for Indian diplomacy.
General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM SM VSM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)