Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor said on Friday that Nitish Kumar isn’t “mentally” fit to remain Bihar’s “mukhiya” or chief minister. The former poll strategist earlier demanded Kumar’s medical test, but has thrown up a new challenge now. If the Bihar CM, without looking at any kaagaz or document, tells the names of his ministers and their portfolios in front of the camera, Kishor will withdraw his movement and support Kumar. It’s an interesting challenge by a former Kumar confidante who used to have a permanent room in the CM’s residence and who was once seen as his putative successor during his short stint as Janata Dal (United) vice-president.
Kishor is probably looking to do to Nitish Kumar what the BJP did to Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. During the Odisha elections last year, the BJP had projected the then CM as a sick, old man who is a hostage in his own house and who can’t function independently. The BJP was targeting VK Pandian, an Indian Administrative Service officer from Tamil Nadu who was a very close aide of Patnaik. He virtually ran the government and the Biju Janata Dal. The BJP’s campaign about an “outsider” controlling the reclusive darling of the masses “like a puppet” evidently worked as the Odia people voted out Patnaik.
Kishor’s claims about Kumar’s mental fitness aren’t exactly political skulduggery. Political circles in Bihar are full of apocryphal stories. Months before video clips of Nitish Kumar bending to touch Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s feet went viral, there were talks in Patna’s power corridors about how he had touched the feet of a contractor in gratitude when the latter informed him about completing his project well in time. Ask the civil servants who have worked with the CM for years. He often fails to recognise them. The latest whisper is that the Bihar CM is nowadays flanked by an aide whose job is to remind him of the identity of the visitors walking toward him. The CM who used to have frequent informal interactions with the media virtually stopped it after Covid-19 and limited his responses to the TV cameras to a few sentences occasionally. Some of these stories may well be concocted or exaggerated but his controversial remarks on contraception and family planning haven’t helped the 73-year-old leader. And it’s also true that a clique of civil servants is running the show in Bihar.
It’s, therefore, no surprise that a brilliant poll strategist such as Prashant Kishor is seeking to exploit these fault lines in Nitish Kumar’s politics and administration. The JSP might have secured only 10 per cent votes in last November’s four assembly bypolls but it’s not a small achievement for a month-old political party. The fact is that Kishor is dominating the political discourse in Bihar, arguably more than the principal Opposition face, Tejaswi Yadav, of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The JSP may not look like a strong contender for power in 2025 but it has stirred the state politics enough to make rivals uneasy and wary. With Tejaswi Yadav losing steam after a valiant show in the last Assembly election and Nitish Kumar desperately trying to delay the inevitable—that is, riding off into the sunset—Kishor’s optimism is not misplaced.
But this column is not about Prashant Kishor. I am referring to him because he has got his finger on the pulse of Bihari voters—their frustration and listlessness with a CM who has lost his mojo but refuses to call it quits.
Shadow of Vikash Purush
In January 2024, when Nitish Kumar had made another political somersault to re-join hands with the BJP, it appeared that he might have overplayed his hand, one last time.
Many in Bihar’s political circles were of the view that the BJP would use him in the Lok Sabha election and then pull the rug from under his feet.
What they and yours truly missed was the fact that Nitish Kumar was born under a lucky star. The BJP fell short of a majority mark in the parliamentary election and Kumar with 12 MPs became indispensable to Modi 3.0. Disillusionment with Kumar is a reality in Bihar. His popularity among sections of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits, especially women, may be diminishing but he is still the NDA’s best bet.
That doesn’t mean that the BJP would give up its long-cherished dream of having its own CM in Bihar. Remember the celebrations at the BJP headquarters in Delhi when the BJP emerged as the big brother in the Bihar NDA with 74 seats after the JD(U)’s tally was reduced to 43 in the 243-member assembly in 2020 elections? The BJP can still hope for a repeat of 2020 outcome.
Many things have changed in the past five years, or so the BJP would think. For one, Kumar is five years older. His opportunistic somersaults have weakened his brand. He is a shadow of the ‘Vikash Purush’ that he once was. There are concerns about his fitness to govern. All these things put together make JD(U) leaders jittery and uncertain. They can’t depend on him for long. They must explore alternative options. Some are already cosying up with the BJP; others are in two minds. A 2020-like outcome in 2025 would make Nitish Kumar more vulnerable, especially from within. That would be the BJP’s best hope in the 2025 election—other than the Opposition bloc losing, of course. Here is a catch though. We know Kumar’s lucky stars. What if he still has enough seats to take the Opposition’s tally to the majority mark? The BJP would then be back to square one. In a nutshell, unless Tajaswi Yadav-led Opposition bloc gets a clear majority, Nitish Kumar is there to stay.
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Ace up his sleeve
Nitish Kumar’s biggest problem as of now is that the absence of a clear successor is making his colleagues jittery. He can’t count on them if he gets isolated at some point of time. The BJP would wait for that vulnerable moment to strike. That’s why the arrival of Nitish Kumar’s son, Nishant Kumar, has raised so much curiosity in Bihar. An engineering graduate from the Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Nishant was staying away from politics and living in a Dwarka flat in Delhi. His father, an avowed critic of dynastic politics, would hardly ever talk about him in public. About a fortnight back, Nishant, 48, showed up with his father in Bhatiyarpur, their hometown, for an event. Nishant spoke to the media, urging the people to vote for the JD(U) and his father. This has taken Bihar’s political circles by storm. Is Nitish Kumar finally thinking of projecting a successor?
Many JD(U) leaders who have been worried about their party’s survival—with Kumar losing his mojo and other parties drooling at the prospect of its disintegration—are backing Nishant’s plunge into politics. He is the only one who can claim Nitish Kumar’s political legacy, they say. He has no political experience. But Nishant’s backers would argue that Naveen Patnaik also didn’t have any political experience when he decided to take over his late father’s legacy. Unlike Patnaik, Nishant will have the opportunity to learn as Nitish Kumar’s understudy.
Nitish Kumar has been silent as this succession debate continues. He hasn’t tried to scotch this swirling speculation yet. The BJP would be more worried about it though. For it was hoping to claim his political legacy, sooner than later. Kumar may or may not be able to name all his ministers and their portfolios in front of the camera, but he may still have an ace up his sleeve. Could Nishant Kumar be that ace? Some JD(U) leaders believe he is, but they know when it comes to Nitish Kumar, it’s never a done deal.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.