Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv on 23 August, which coincides with Ukraine’s National Flag Day, marks a historic first for an Indian prime minister. This visit takes place against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has reshaped not only global geopolitics but also poses significant challenges to India’s defence capabilities. The visit presents a unique opportunity for India to explore strategic partnerships with Ukraine, particularly in the realm of defence manufacturing.
This will be a win-win for both countries. India needs marine engines for its warships, and upgrade its large air transport fleet and technologies—particularly propulsion. Ukraine knows that cooperation with India will bring in much-needed money for its defence companies, which are struggling financially and are severely impacted by the war with Russia. Factories of key Ukrainian defence companies—Antonov Serial Production Plant in Kyiv and the Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv—have been bombed by Russia.
The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) large fleet of An-32 military transports, which was slated for an upgrade under a 2009 contract, has been particularly impacted. The Antonov plant produces the model. The contract involved upgrading 40 aircraft in Ukraine and another 65 in India under Ukrainian supervision.
However, the supply chain has been disrupted due to Russia’s refusal to supply spare parts. Due to this the last five of the 40 aircraft that were to be upgraded in Ukraine are reportedly stuck in Kyiv, and the local upgrade in India was stalled due to the departure of Ukrainian engineers and the shortage of spare parts.
The Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv, vital for the production of turbines used by navies worldwide, including India’s, was targeted by Russian forces in March 2022, severely crippling its operational capabilities. The ongoing war has only exacerbated these challenges, with Mykolaiv’s strategic location making it a frequent target of shelling and infrastructure damage. The impact on Zorya-Mashproekt is particularly significant for India, which relies on these turbines for its warships.
Given these disruptions, Modi’s visit to Kyiv offers a strategic opportunity for India to explore new avenues of cooperation with Ukraine. One potential area of collaboration is the establishment of joint ventures in India, where Ukrainian technicians can work alongside Indian counterparts to set up manufacturing units. Bharat Forge’s recent acquisition of a 51 per cent stake in Zorya’s India arm could be a foundation for such a partnership.
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Not a zero-sum game
Russia is also struggling to respond to Ukraine’s advances in Kursk, raising the stakes for Modi’s trip. The Indian government has maintained a consistent stance on the conflict, emphasising the need for dialogue and diplomacy. The Ministry of External Affairs has reiterated that India’s engagements with both Ukraine and Russia are independent and substantive and not a zero-sum game. This nuanced approach will likely guide the discussions in Kyiv, where Modi is expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy may engage in some hard talk regarding India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, but welcoming Modi to Kyiv and announcing that several agreements will be signed signals a readiness to focus on broader, strategic issues.
Modi’s visit on Ukraine’s National Flag Day—23 August—highlights the importance of this meeting. As Modi and Zelenskyy discuss bilateral and multilateral cooperation, there is a strong possibility that they will address not only the ongoing conflict but also explore ways to deepen industrial and defence ties.
Given the volatile situation, Ukraine might stage a significant action to coincide with Modi’s visit. Just as Russia launched a missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv during Modi’s visit to Moscow. India may have sought assurances from Ukraine that no provocative actions would take place during the visit, ensuring that efforts for a strategic partnership won’t be overshadowed by military escalations.
By leveraging this visit to negotiate strategic partnerships in defence manufacturing and engage in a candid dialogue on the ongoing conflict, India can position itself as a key player in shaping the future of the region.
The author is an adjunct scholar at the Takshashila Institution. He tweets @YusufDFI. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)