When was the last time India conducted its foreign policy publicly? Not in the recent past, at least. The entire tariff fiasco with the United States has gone without any public statements from Prime Minister Narendra Modi—except for his words on protecting the rights of the Indian farmer. But there it was: addressing a public rally in Manipur, Modi spoke for two dedicated minutes, congratulating Nepal’s newly appointed interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki and wishing her well in ensuring peace and stability.
In those two minutes, Modi lauded her appointment as Nepal’s first female Prime Minister and hailed it as a positive marker of women’s empowerment in the country. He also expressed hope that she would work toward paving the way for peace, stability, and prosperity in Nepal.
Considering the shared history, culture, and faith between the close neighbours, Modi’s messaging to Nepal was constructive. This is especially notable, since Nepal witnessed a youth-led movement against corruption, nepotism, political instability, and ‘oldigarchy’—regimes run by an ageing leadership.
When India had already conveyed its messages through statements from the Ministry of External Affairs and Modi’s X post earlier, what could have driven the Indian Prime Minister to speak on Nepal while addressing a crowd in Manipur?
Modi’s remarks were directed at the Gen Z in Nepal, who became the changemakers. Now that they have succeeded in ending the ‘oldigarchy’ and are playing a key role in the interim government led by Karki, New Delhi knows it’s time for a reset in its Nepal policy. Until this point, India had primarily engaged with the traditional parties and their ageing leadership in Nepal.
Lesson from Bangladesh
A criticism of the Indian foreign policy over the past decades was that New Delhi did not diversify its engagements with different stakeholders in neighbouring nations. It had its favourites, like Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League in Bangladesh and Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress. In times of crisis or political transition, India was left with a pressing challenge to engage the new leadership, which was not always welcoming. And that is where India seems to be making a change now.
In his remarks, Modi expressed his appreciation for those in Nepal who upheld democratic values in turbulent times. He also made a point to note that Nepali youth had come forward to clean the city and whitewash the buildings that were set on fire during the protests on 8 and 9 September. India has clearly communicated that it has already pressed the reset button in its Nepal policy and is ready to engage with youth-led change.
This move was not without deep strategic thinking in the Indian foreign policy apparatus. To begin with, Gen Z does not carry the burden of history. This means it would be objective in driving Nepal’s foreign policy, deepening ties with those offering opportunities and economic benefits, and helping build the nation.
India should be the natural choice for whoever is in power. New Delhi has been a key development partner for Nepal, a primary gateway to its third-country trade, and a first responder in crises like the 2015 earthquake.
But what Gen Z has seen with India is the alleged border blockade of 2015 and a territorial dispute of 2020 over the Lipulekh and Kaplapani. The traditional political parties that have run the country until recently used the unresolved issues to stoke ultra-nationalistic sentiments for electoral benefit. However, the youth may be more vocal and use platforms like social media to convey grievances toward India.
If a social media campaign helped Gen Z unite against a social media ban in Nepal, the same platforms could also become tools in leading campaigns against different countries not willing to resolve pending issues. Anti-India social media trends in Nepal, such as #BackOffIndia and #GoBackIndia, saw strong youth participation in 2015 and 2020.
While much has improved in India-Nepal ties, the issues that Nepal still sees as unresolved with India, including territorial disputes, may still pose a challenge.
Also read: Manipur has seen too much pain to be seduced by promises
China’s influence
In the current transition phase, Nepali youth will likely find an attractive bargain in the country’s northern neighbour, China. In the last decade, Beijing has actively engaged with Nepali youth through programmes such as educational scholarships. China’s premium educational institutions, like Sichuan University and Yunnan University, have a growing base of Nepali students.
A section of the Nepali youth has advocated China’s Belt and Road Initiative as an opportunity for Nepal’s development.
While China is opting for a ‘see all, say nothing’ approach to the evolving situation, it would be no surprise if Beijing finds a warm welcome in a youth-led Nepal. China may use its ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy to generate goodwill. Nepal is strategically seen as a gateway to enter the Indian subcontinent through land routes—crucial geography for China in ensuring peace and stability in Tibet, and an opportunity to compete against India’s traditional influence.
As Gen Z take the mainstream role in Nepal, India is sending a constructive message by quickly accepting the political change. And by acknowledging the role of Gen Z in Nepal’s political transition, New Delhi is indicating a policy reset that necessitates deepening its engagement with the country’s youth.
Rishi Gupta is a commentator on Global Affairs. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)