Early indications of Nepal’s election results show that the newbie Rashtriya Swatantra Party is leading the race nationwide, with the old guard—Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal-UML, and the Nepali Communist Party—following behind. The election, which has been about the aspirations of the youth and a quest to replace the old guard with youthful leadership, saw a total voter turnout of 58.07 per cent on 5 March. It’s the lowest since the country’s first democratic elections in 2008.
Among the factors contributing to the comparatively lower voter turnout could be the crisis in the Middle East. With millions of Nepalis residing in the Gulf, the focus was less on their electoral participation and more on ensuring their safety by engaging with host countries. No postal ballots were provided this time, so the diaspora certainly missed the chance to vote. It was at the forefront of amplifying issues concerning Nepal’s political instability, leadership failures, corruption, and foreign policy, which further got echoed through the Gen Z movement.
The good news is that the elections were peaceful and all-inclusive, with new and old parties and even independent candidates participating—a marker of Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s timely delivery of the interim government’s mandate. And the fact that the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is finding new ground in Nepali politics, especially against parties as old as the advent of Modern Nepal in the 1950s, indicates the dawnof a new Nepal. Leadership must now understand the needs of an aspiring youth, including development, governance, transparency, employment, and equal opportunity without bias.
Balendra Shah, commonly known as Balen, is poised to be the next prime minister if RSP wins the number game. Through him, Nepal could have its youngest leader ever take the top post.
The Balen wave
There is no denying that Balen is the most popular youth leader in Nepal, whose possible journey to the Singhdurbar could be no less than a fairy tale. An engineer turned rapper, he invoked emotions on the issues of corruption and political instability and made it to the Kathmandu mayor’s office in 2022. He defeated stalwart candidates from traditional parties with a huge margin. After the Gen Z movement, Balen was once again the popular choice for an interim leader. His name was put forward for a popular vote on the social media platform Discord, along with Karki.
Though it may have been tough to let the interim role go, Balen seemed to have made a strategic decision to contest for the polls. The move guarantees a five-year term in office with an electoral mandate and the support of an elected parliament. However, there was scepticism in the election when the campaign became just about the youth and their demand for bringing Balen as the country’s top leader. “Balen chahiyo” or “We want Balen” seemed to be an urban, youth-oriented phenomenon. It was also portrayed as social media hype seemingly amplified by the Western media, hyphenating Gen Z with the Balen—a projection that drew some criticism.
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Potential coalitions
Balen’s popularity notwithstanding, the probability of RSP not getting a clear majority is high. And this is where the Nepali Congress, under the leadership of Ganan Thapa, a 49-year-old leader who has also struck a chord with youth voters, could benefit from its seven-decade-old voter base. If RSP and the Nepali Congress see the numbers as suitable, there might be an alliance between the two parties. It certainly won’t be the first time Nepal has seen a coalition government based on power sharing.
Balen and Gagan are both strong personalities, so getting along could be difficult for them—similar to what Nepal experienced with KP Oli and Puspa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda. Interestingly, Prachanda’s Nepali Communist Party (NCP) is leaning on single-digit seats, so he may want to join a coalition that makes it to the final count. He has moulded himself multiple times to be in the government, including joining hands with Oli. He may be in a similar position this time.
It is often the last double-digit seats that give Prachanda crucial bargaining power. In 2022, despite having only 32 seats compared to CPN-UML’s 78, Prachanda became the prime minister of the coalition government alongside CPN-UML and RSP. Unlike in the past, he may not be keen on demanding the key leadership role, but remaining in power would still be his goal after the final results are announced. Also, as a Madhesi, Balen could see support from the local Madhesi parties in forming the government.
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Challenges ahead
If RSP manages to form the government, whether alone or in coalition, it will have a strong mandate to deliver under the leadership of Balen. The first will be asking its elected leaders to declare their assets and ensure transparency from day one. But this has not been easy, and governments have tried it before. The second mandate will be fighting corruption, which would be key to Balen’s leadership. The third will be generating employment and safeguarding the interests of a large Nepali diaspora in the Middle East, East Asia, Oceania, and the Americas, which amplified the Balen wave on social media.
Addressing the plight of the millions of Nepalis stuck across the conflicted Middle East could be Balen’s first task in the office. Providing justice to victims of violence during the Gen Z movement, investigating the role of the police in the alleged killings would also be a key task at hand. The interim government had appointed an investigation commission led by former Special Court Judge Gauri Karki in this regard, but the report was withheld in view of the elections. Making the commission’s findings public could emerge as a top demand from the youth.
Besides the domestic mandate, Balen will have a crucial job of reinvigorating Nepal’s ties with its two neighbours—India and China. He is known to have held strong views on India in the context of the 2015 border disruptions and the 2020 territorial conflict. Now, with a youth-centric mandate at hand, how much of past social media trends such as #BackOffIndia and #GoBackIndia would influence Nepal’s India policy remains to be seen. On the other hand, China would look to engage closely and benefit from the ‘no historical baggage’ of the relationship with Nepal.
Nepal has seen 30 prime ministers in 35 years, and more than 10 since the advent of democracy in 2008. The country is in dire need of political stability, and the new government must ensure it. This election has also brought the buzz about restoring the monarchy to a close. It is the democracy that evolves from now onward, even if it falters occasionally, because it takes each vote into account.
Rishi Gupta is a commentator on Global Strategic Affairs. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)