NDA vs JSP vs Mahagathbandhan—Bihar elections are a litmus test for old & new politics

The Mahagathbandhan is riding on Tejashwi’s momentum. The JSP, while fresh and focused, may not have the structure and wherewithal to compete on par with the alliances.

File photo of Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi | Representational image | ANI

A Bharat Bandh was recently observed against the government’s alleged ‘anti-worker, anti-farmer, and pro-corporate policies’. While the impact of these strikes varied across states, in Bihar, they took on a far more intense and confrontational undertone. The Bihar Bandh or chakka jam quickly escalated into widespread protests involving road blockades and tyre-burning demonstrations.

What started as a protest against the government’s labour policy has evolved into something politically sharper. The Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, has framed the strike in terms of electoral fairness, raising concerns about the special intensive revision. This shift in narrative signals an emboldened Opposition, and raises an important question: Is the Mahagathbandhan gaining ground, and will the National Democratic Alliance face a steeper challenge in the run-up to the 2025 Bihar elections? In this context, the article situates the strengths and weaknesses of Bihar’s three major political players – the ruling NDA, the Mahagathbandhan Opposition, and the emerging Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) – and draws probable trajectories ahead.

The NDA

The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United), is backed by a powerful organisational network. With the BJP’s strong cadre system and grassroots presence, the NDA has the ability to efficiently mobilise voters. It is a major advantage in any election, as has been evident from the electoral outcome of some recent state assembly elections. The alliance also enjoys solid backing from upper caste Hindus and non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), most of whom have consistently sided with them across multiple election cycles.

More importantly, NDA has a wider appeal among women voters. Historically, a slightly larger share of women than men have supported the NDA. Nitish Kumar’s recent announcement – to reserve 35 per cent of all government jobs for women who are residents of Bihar – is likely to reinforce this support. Combined with a decade-long record of development initiatives such as road building, alcohol prohibition, and social welfare schemes, the NDA is poised to present itself as a coalition well suited for governance.

But the alliance is not without trouble. Internally, there is palpable tension. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has declared plans to contest all seats independently, risking a split in the NDA vote. Smaller allies such as the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) are also pressing for more seats, creating strain within the coalition.

Above all, the NDA might suffer from a leadership vacuum at the state level. Once the alliance’s anchor, Nitish Kumar is now seeing a dip in popularity, with his declining health adding to concerns. Voter fatigue will exacerbate NDA’s problems, with anti-incumbency likely to surface after 20 years.

Gaps in governance, especially unfilled public sector jobs, and frustration among young voters can become real threats. The law-and-order situation has deteriorated, and the death of Gopal Khemka can hurt the alliance’s prospects if the Opposition successfully capitalises on it. Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi commands immense popularity nationally, one can’t be sure how it will work in NDA’s favour.

The Mahagathbandhan

The Mahagathbandhan coalition is mostly centred around the Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party. The alliance is banking on consolidating minority and OBC votes, especially among Muslims and Yadavs. A few early opinion polls suggest Tejashwi is gaining traction and is becoming a popular chief ministerial candidate. His focus on bread-and-butter issues like unemployment, inflation, and migration appears to ride well with voters beleaguered with economic distress.

The Mahagathbandhan seat-sharing strategy, covering Congress, the Left parties, and smaller allies like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), is mostly well balanced and would help them avoid public squabbles that often plague pre-election alliances.

However, the strength of the coalition remains uneven and fragile. Congress is widely seen as the weaker link, demanding more seats than its electoral strength justifies. In the 2020 election, it won only 19 of the 70 it contested.

Tejashwi’s popularity aside, the RJD still carries the baggage of the Lalu Yadav era—one that accentuates rising crime, corruption, and what has often been labelled as ‘jungle raj’. That image is not faint; it lingers, especially among older voters. More importantly, the alliance’s chances depend heavily on perfect vote transfer between parties and communities. In Bihar elections, any minor slip in vote coordination can flip the results dramatically.

The JSP

The third important player is the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor. While not yet established as an electoral heavyweight, JSP is gaining attention, especially among younger and urban voters. Kishor’s clean image, non-alignment with caste politics, and emphasis on governance-first policies appear to give his party a refreshing start. The JSP has focused on practical issues like education and migration, which may resonate with voters tired of the same old caste and coalition arithmetic. The party’s new entrant, social media influencer Manish Kashyap, indicates that the JSP is gaining some traction.

But the reality is different. JSP lacks the organisational depth required for a state-wide campaign. It has little presence at the booth level, and it lacks the machinery to mobilise voters effectively. Funding and logistics may be big obstacles. Without allies or a strong party base, contesting all 243 seats seems like a long road. Kishor’s credibility as an election strategist is undeniable, but converting that into electoral success is altogether a different ballgame.

With three months down the line, each alliance/party is poised to give its best. The NDA leans on its proven organisational skills and the power of incumbency, but faces internal discord with small allies and voter fatigue. The Mahagathbandhan is riding on Tejashwi’s momentum and promises of economic relief, though it risks repeating old mistakes. The JSP, while fresh and focused, may not have the structure and wherewithal to compete on par with the alliances.

In this sense, this election is not just about who governs; rather, it is a litmus test of whether old loyalties still hold, whether new politics can break through, or whether promises will outweigh past performance. For voters, the choice is going to be tough. For politicians, the challenge is far tougher.

Devesh Kumar is a Research Associate with Lokniti-CSDS. Sanjay Kumar is a professor at CSDS and a political commentator. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)