As we mark out the 10 top takeaways from the four state elections’ results, the first and most significant one will lead on to the prospects in next summer’s general elections.
It is that Narendra Modi’s appeal and popularity are much stronger towards the end of his second term than at any point since May, 2014. Compared to the winter of 2018 when he seemed to be struggling, the situation has reversed.
It’s counter-intuitive, but Modi’s own popularity has grown with the length of his tenure. He had always seemed the front-runner by some distance for 2024, and this gives him more tailwind. It also delivers a crippling blow to the morale of his rivals and calls into question the ability of INDIA to limit him to a below-majority (272 in the Lok Sabha) mark, forget defeating him.
We had noted more than once that while he was able to sweep the Lok Sabha, or when he was on the ticket as seen in Gujarat, he couldn’t quite do the same in other state elections. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have now shown that he has broken that paradigm. In each of the three, he put himself on the ticket with “Modi ki Guarantee” campaigns and won. Of course, the Karnataka assembly remains the southern exception.
Congress vote percentage intact
If you dissect the Congress’s numbers, it hasn’t become weaker in the three heartland states. It is just that the BJP has become stronger. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress has maintained its 2018 vote share almost to the last decimal point. Even in Chhattisgarh, the loss is just by one percentage point. Why did it get decimated then?
Voters disillusioned with smaller parties
While the Congress maintained its vote share, the BJP added 7, 4 and 13 percentage points in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, respectively. A clearer two-party polarisation is a trend we’ve been noting for the past many years. In this case, all the voters disillusioned with smaller region, tribe and caste-based parties and rebels have gone to the BJP. That’s how its vote has risen without denting the Congress. The Congress isn’t losing its base, it just can’t expand it.
Hindutva & nationalism
This campaign was remarkable in the relative absence of the use of Hindutva. To be sure, in Rajasthan, there were references to the Udaipur beheading and PFI rallies in preference to Ram Navmi, but it wasn’t still the central strand. The lesson is that Hindutva and nationalism now play out in the background constantly for the BJP, like the tanpuras in a classical music concert. There are temples being built or renovated all the time, summits being held and military acquisitions headlined. Rapid construction of highly visible infrastructure feeds into this. That’s why overt Hindutva isn’t needed.
INDIA alliance
While the Congress will take some satisfaction in its Telangana revival, its INDIA allies will also take note of the fact that it still cannot measure up to the BJP when in direct contest with it. This will cast a shadow on the future of the alliance and the Congress party’s stature within.
Freebies not enough to counter BJP
The opposition parties’, especially the Congress’s, idea that freebies are the only antidote to the BJP’s Hindutva-nationalism mix is now fully defeated. To be able to mount even a halfway credible challenge, the Congress will need to build a true alternative agenda to Modi’s. With a counter-view on identity, nationalism, and the economy.
Limitations of identity politics
It is impossible for the Opposition to beat the BJP with identity politics. There are no magic solutions like a caste census. There is some juice in that idea but it will be specific to a few states. These ideas have to be thought through much more deeply. In this case, we had people promising immediate caste censuses without even questioning the Modi government on why the 2021 national census had not yet taken place. This comes from learning and doing your politics on X (formerly Twitter).
Modi’s Teflon-coating
Corruption charges against Narendra Modi do not stick, nor do personal attacks. The Rafale campaign failed in the past, Adani has bombed now. Campaign flourishes like ‘panauti’ consolidate his base rather than dent it. Where is that new big idea, the ideological contest? At least that Mohabbat ki Dukan against Nafrat ka Bazar concept that Rahul Gandhi came up during the Bharat Jodo Yatra had some political juice. But even that was forgotten.
Hindi heartland advantage
In the Hindi heartland, the BJP organisation is far stronger than that of any of its challengers. As are its party leadership and coherence. It showed in how it brought state rivals together and rehabilitated Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje before it was too late. It stays close to its cadres, ensuring it doesn’t lose contact with the ground. If you want to see an extreme example of what happens when you lose this connect, check out KCR’s BRS in Telangana. If he had his ear to the ground, he would never have jumped onto his idiosyncratic idea of national leadership, even renaming his party from ‘Telangana’ to ‘Bharat’ Rashtra Samithi.
Reform over populism
And finally, there’s some relief that these results bury that most regressive idea of a return to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS). Of the four states, where they promised it, the Congress won only Telangana. And that’s the one where the OPS wasn’t made a big deal of in the campaign. Whatever your voting preferences, entirely for the sake of India’s political economy, count this as the biggest gain of these polls.