As voting for the 18th Lok Sabha election nears its conclusion, one question must be answered: Who benefits from Mayawati’s decision to remove her nephew, Akash Anand, from the position of Bahujan Samaj Party’s national coordinator and election campaign scenario? Several political commentators and parties have alleged that her decision will benefit Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and thus label the BSP as the ‘B’ team of Bharatiya Janata Party.
Based on our field insights and works, we argue that a section of disillusioned Dalit voters, who have deserted the BSP, is moving toward the INDIA coalition. This shift could benefit the opposition parties in other states as well. Therefore, the opposition’s allegation that Mayawati’s decision is an act of tacit understanding with the BJP is erroneous and doesn’t reflect the voting behaviour of Dalits in the state.
Dalit voters of Uttar Pradesh
Dalits in UP, particularly Jatav/Chamar, have historically overwhelmingly voted for the BSP. However, the 2022 assembly election saw declining support for the party among all castes in varying degrees. Now the question arises: Who did such voters support? Based on our previous field insights, we have noticed that Dalit voters in Western UP, who deserted the BSP, were more likely to vote for the BJP. However, in other regions of the state, such voters supported the SP. The reason may lie at the grassroots level where Dalit voters might be at conflict with Yadavs and Jats, who are landowning dominant castes in Western UP and Braj. However, in Awadh and Eastern UP, where Thakurs have historically been zamindars, Yadavs and Dalits share a common history of oppression and fight against feudalism. This is one reason why the BSP once had several MPs from the Yadav community such as Ramakant Yadav, Uma Kant Yadav, Mitrasen Yadav, and Bhalchandra Yadav. The social alliance between Yadavs and Chamars in Awadh and Poorvanchal could be one reason why the SP performed better in these regions during the last assembly election.
The Akash Anand effect
Mayawati’s nephew appears to have had a positive impact in Western UP. The enthusiasm shown by young Dalits at his election rallies could be seen as a sign of these voters returning to the BSP fold. If this is true, we might see an increased vote percentage of the BSP in Western UP in comparison to the rest of the state.
However, his removal from the post of coordinator has discouraged Dalits and put them at a crossroads once again in the rest of UP. Despite this fact, they are more likely to vote for the opposition alliance. This also shows Mayawati’s reluctance to serious politics, which has not given a good message among Dalit voters. Frequent changes of candidates have added to further aspersion.
Also read: Constitution & jobs—2 reasons why Akhilesh and Rahul rallies are drawing big crowds
Opposition’s edge
The opposition’s narrative that the BJP would scrap reservation and alter the Constitution if it comes to power for the third time is leading to an aggressive buildup of a strong support base for INDIA. The BJP’s slogan- ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ along with statements by some BJP leaders such as Diya Kumar and Lallu Singh have spread like wildfire among marginalised communities, creating anxiety and fear. In this scenario, Mayawati’s decision isn’t seen positively. This popular belief is making inroads in the newly erected Dalit base of the BJP. Hence, disgruntled Dalit voters are moving toward the opposition alliance. Moreover, Kurmi voters, who also used to support the BSP in several pockets of the state, are shifting toward the opposition alliance too.
These shifts can surely increase the vote share of opposition parties (SP and Congress). But whether it will be enough to secure victories in constituencies is undetermined. If the BJP has played any role in the removal of Akash Anand, it may regret it later on. However, there is no doubt that this development during mid-election is likely to benefit the opposition parties rather than the BJP.
Narrative versus organisational strength
The opposition parties, of late, have taken the lead in building narratives around the alleged threats to the Constitution, reservation, unemployment, inflation, caste census and farmers’ issues. However, they lack organisational strength like that of the BJP — which is unmatched and unparalleled.
The astonishing part of the whole campaign, though, has been the absence of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cadres on the ground till the fifth round of polling. Moreover, BJP national president JP Nadda’s statement about the RSS has added more woes to the future prospects for the party. Rumour is also rife that for the remaining round of polling, the RSS has been kept in abeyance, which can severely impact its polling as well as seat prospects. Therefore, the last round of voting is also going to see a tussle between the opposition’s narrative and the BJP’s organisational strength. The BJP has mobilised its cadre for the last round of polling.
Mayawati’s decision has created a dynamic political scenario and open space in UP, with sizeable benefits for the opposition. The shifting allegiances of Dalit and Kurmi voters highlight the complexity of voting behaviour. The last round of voting will show the importance of both narratives and organisational strength in securing electoral success.
Arvind Kumar (@arvind_kumar__) is Assistant Professor at the Department of Law and Criminology, Royal Holloway, University of London. Sanjay Kumar, CSSP National Coordinator & Professor, Y.D. College, Lakhimpur-Kheri. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)