Releasing the Left Democratic Front’s three-year progress report on 7 June, a belligerent Pinarayi Vijayan lashed out at Geevarghese Mar Coorilos, former Metropolitan of the Niranam Diocese of the Jacobite Syrian Christian Church. The Kerala chief minister called the former bishop an ‘idiot’ for criticising his government after the Left’s disastrous showing in the Lok Sabha election.
For those who have followed Vijayan, his volatile response perhaps comes as no surprise. Back in 2006, as state secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Vijayan had called former Thamarassery diocese bishop Paul Chittilappilly a “nikrishta jeevi (wretched creature)”.
However, what might have been surprising in the latest instance is that Coorilos is a self-avowed Left traveller. He had famously dubbed Vijayan “kalam kathuvacha nethavu (cometh the hour, cometh Vijayan)” when Kerala was reeling under the Covid-19 pandemic. He is also often referred to as the ‘Red Bishop’ for his regular endorsement of the Marxists.
In an uncharacteristic Facebook post, Coorilos had warned the Left of a “repeat of Bengal” if it did not mend its ways and drew attention to the “massive anti-incumbency” against LDF on the ground. He also attributed “fiscal profligacy, witch-hunt of the media, corruption, appeasement of socio-religious organisations, Right-wing deviancy and arrogance” as reasons for LDF’s poor performance.
It is assumed that Vijayan’s heavy-handed response to Coorilos was a ploy to prevent more such dissenting voices from within the Left ecosystem. People have a way of following someone’s lead. Writer MT Vasudevan Nair’s measured words of criticism well before the polls had prompted writers to speak up, even if in feeble voices.
Understandably, not too many spoke up in Coorilos’ support. And it is generally the case in Kerala that anyone who dares criticise Vijayan or the Left is branded a stooge of the Congress, Sangh or capitalists. A chastised Coorilos refused to engage with Vijayan’s retort, although he did not delete the post either, refusing to be drawn further into the debate.
Vijayan was also at his combative best as the state Assembly convened after the election. He tried to shift the blame for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s historic win in Thrissur onto the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Vijayan’s address was wholly predicated on the fact that the UDF had lost more votes than the LDF compared to 2019, despite the former winning 18 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats this time around.
After Vijayan, the deluge?
Notwithstanding Vijayan’s oversized role in the LDF’s defeat, the trouble with the CPI(M) today is that it is fully dependent on the CM. The LDF’s return to power in 2021, following the UDF’s sweep of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, can be credited entirely to Vijayan. His social engineering tactics and strong leadership image as ‘Captain Vijayan’ made the turnaround possible.
Taking a leaf out of former Congress CM K Karunakaran’s playbook, Vijayan makes it a point to maintain a hotline with the heads of various religious sects and churches. While the strategy worked in 2021, the fear in the CPI (M) is that it may not work again in 2026, with the massive anti-incumbency becoming a talking point. This, coupled with the corruption charges against Vijayan and his daughter, could make things even more difficult.
For the CPI(M), the trouble is that there is no collective leadership within the party as things stand today.
The CPI(M) state committee – which ensured checks and balances in the past – has ended up as an endorsement committee to pass resolutions without debate. Fearing his wrath, no one dares question the CM. After all, Vijayan has continued to maintain an iron grip on the apparatus since the 2005 CPI(M) state conference in Malappuram.
The incumbent state secretary MV Govindan was expected to arrest the slide and act sternly on the Right-wing deviancy of the CPI(M). However, he has seemingly ended up resembling the caricaturish character of Comrade Kumara Pillai of the iconic Malayalam satire Sandesham (1991). Even general secretary Sitaram Yechury has limitations to intervene in Kerala, the only state where the party continues to hold power.
It’s a bit like how the Soviet leadership waited till Stalin’s death to denounce him. Until now, no active leader has shown any inclination to hold up a mirror to Vijayan. Anonymous voices are emanating from ally Communist Party of India, (CPI)’s meetings, demanding that Vijayan change his style of leadership. Strange, considering how Vijayan is known for his unapologetic positions and for sticking to them at all costs.
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Vijayan’s 2026 calculations: Gone awry?
Meanwhile, Vijayan remains confident that he can conjure a third successive win. He expects a section of the Muslims who consolidated behind the UDF in Lok Sabha polls to gravitate toward the LDF in the assembly polls. That way, he hopes to compensate for the BJP’s expansion into its Hindu base.
In Kerala, the Left is the original ‘Hindu party’, while the UDF is the natural party of the minorities. The CPI(M)’s base in Kerala consists largely of Ezhavas, who form 23 per cent of its population. The Muslims make up over 27 per cent. Vijayan is betting big on a consolidation of the Ezhavas and Muslims to emerge victorious in the 2026 Assembly election.
However, two developments in the Lok Sabha election might already have upset Vijayan’s apple cart.
First, the voting patterns in the Attingal and Alappuzha constituencies in the Lok Sabha polls are ominous. There, the CPI(M)’s loyal Ezhava vote saw a switch toward the BJP in large swathes. This phenomenon was also witnessed on a limited scale in its ‘party villages’ in Kannur. The Marxist party will find it hard to reverse a vote shift of this kind.
The second development has to do with the improbability of the UDF-ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) wanting to do business with the LDF. The IUML was in two minds before the election. It was uncertain about the prominence of the Congress nationally as well as its own future in Kerala. But now, it has become clear that IUML would stay put with the UDF. Its general secretary PK Kunhalikutty recently mocked the CPI(M) in the state Assembly, picking on the slogan “idathundenkile India ullu (There is no India without the Left)”.
The IUML was the missing piece of the 2026 jigsaw conceived by Vijayan to get the Ezhava-Muslim combination going. Moreover, the Left’s Ezhava base seems uneasy, perceiving the CPI(M)’s election stance as ‘appeasement’ of Muslims. This could be attributed to the party’s doubling down on the Palestine issue and flogging of the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Sree Narayana Dharama Paripalana (SNDP) secretary Vellappally Nateshan has made repeated “minority appeasement” allegations against the LDF. But Vijayan has continued to maintain a studied silence.
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Who will bell the cat?
Leaders who look forward to succeeding Vijayan must constantly look over their shoulders, ensuring that the CM’s son-in-law Mohammed Riyas isn’t leapfrogging them. The CPI(M)’s five-day deliberations underway at Thiruvananthapuram since 16 June have the likes of Yechury and Prakash Karat in attendance. But Vijayan is most likely to get away from bearing any burden of the defeat in the poll.
Unlike the Modi Cabinet 3.0, where continuity has been the watchword, Vijayan had gone for a total purge of his cabinet in his second term. Even before that election, tickets were denied to those who completed two terms as legislators. Those who escaped that clause – KK Shailaja, for instance – weren’t made ministers. That has left ministers in the second Vijayan ministry lacking in heft and public image.
Some who were left high and dry were fielded in the Lok Sabha polls – including Shailaja and TM Thomas Isaac. They were not only defeated badly but had their standing eroded further. That means there is no line of succession in the party in Kerala, where leaders from Kannur have occupied key positions of power. Many Marxist leaders sense a growing lack of trust among their Kannur leadership, pushing them to bide their time.
For now, however, the Marxists have no choice but to throw in their lot with their chief minister. Vijayan, after all, continues to hold the reins of the party–and its purse strings.
The author is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)