The 2024 Haryana Assembly election is set to be a crucial political contest, influenced by the state’s complex caste dynamics and shifting voter preferences. Analysis of voting trends over the past decade, using Lokniti-CSDS Data, reveals significant realignments in political loyalties across various communities, providing valuable insights into Haryana’s evolving electoral landscape.
Since the last Assembly elections, Haryana’s political alliances have transformed significantly. The Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) has formed a strategic partnership with the Azad Samaj Party (ASP), while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has allied with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). These alliances are pivotal, aiming to consolidate votes against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC), potentially altering the electoral outcome.
The Jat community, which constitutes about 25 per cent of Haryana’s population, and the Dalit community, making up nearly 20 per cent, are crucial in this electoral battle. Both alliances are working to secure support from these groups, recognising their significant influence on the election results. The JJP-ASP alliance is leveraging the JJP’s regional strength and the ASP’s appeal among marginalised communities, particularly under the leadership of newly elected Nagina MP Chandrashekar Azad. Meanwhile, the INLD-BSP alliance seeks to capitalise on the BSP’s substantial support among Dalits and other backward classes, presenting a united front against the ruling BJP. The effectiveness of these alliances in addressing the concerns of the Jat and Dalit communities will be vital in determining the outcome of the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections.
Historically, the Jat community has been a dominant force in Haryana’s electoral outcomes. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections marked a decisive turn, with the INDIA alliance, comprising Congress and AAP, successfully consolidating the Jat vote, securing 64 per cent of it, while the BJP’s share dropped to 27 per cent. This shift suggests growing discontent among Jats with the BJP, possibly due to unresolved agrarian issues and perceived neglect of their interests. The INDIA alliance’s success in 2024 highlights its ability to resonate with the community’s concerns, positioning it as a formidable contender in the upcoming Assembly elections.
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Changing loyalties
The tide first turned in favour of the BJP in 2019. It made substantial inroads into the INLD’s stronghold, capturing 52 per cent of the Jat vote in the Lok Sabha elections. This shift was partly due to the split within the INLD and the emergence of its offshoot, the JJP, which fragmented the traditional Jat vote. The 2019 Assembly elections mirrored this pattern, with the BJP retaining a significant share, although the JJP and Congress also gained traction. Before that, the Jats predominantly supported the INLD, which secured 42 per cent and 54 per cent of the vote in 2014 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections respectively, leaving the BJP and Congress far behind.
The BJP’s dominance among non-Jat upper castes in Haryana has been evident in recent elections. In 2024, the BJP’s support among this group slightly declined to 66 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections, with the INDIA alliance attracting 30 per cent of the vote. This represents a notable shift from previous trends. In 2019, the BJP solidified its position, capturing 76 per cent of the upper caste vote in the Lok Sabha elections, reflecting its stronghold on this demographic. This trend was consistent with the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, where the BJP secured 51 per cent of the upper caste vote and maintained its dominance.
Historically, non-Jat upper castes have shown a strong alignment with the BJP. But the slight decline in BJP’s support in 2024 and the Congress’s gains suggest a potential shift in political sentiment. This shift could impact the upcoming Haryana Assembly elections, especially if the INDIA alliance effectively capitalises on economic and governance issues that resonate with this demographic. In fact, the Congress has also improved its performance among other OBC castes as well.
In 2024, the Yadav and Gujjar communities showed a significant shift in voting preferences. The BJP’s support among these groups has slightly declined to 39 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, from 66 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Conversely, the Congress saw an increase, securing 52 per cent of the vote in 2024 compared to 3 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The INLD’s and JJP’s influence remained minimal.
Growing tide for INDIA
Dalits, a crucial voter base in Haryana, have shown a dramatic shift in their political preferences over recent years. In 2024, the INDIA alliance garnered 68 per cent of Dalit votes, a significant increase from the past elections. This marks a stark contrast to the 51 per cent of Dalit votes the BJP secured in 2019, their highest tally. The decline in support for the BJP, dropping to 24 per cent in 2024, indicates growing dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of Dalit issues. This trend highlights the Congress’s effective focus on social justice and welfare policies. However, other parties are also trying to woo this segment of voters. The INLD-BSP alliance is strategically working to consolidate Dalit votes against the BJP, emphasising social justice in their campaign. Additionally, the JJP’s alliance with the ASP reflects a deliberate effort to attract Dalit voters. These dynamics point toward the critical role of caste politics in shaping electoral preferences.
Muslims and Sikhs in Haryana have consistently leaned towards non-BJP parties in recent elections. Historically, these communities have favoured parties other than the BJP, reflecting broader discontent with the party’s policies and approaches. By 2024, the INDIA alliance successfully consolidated the support of both Muslims and Sikhs. This shift underscores growing dissatisfaction with the BJP’s handling of issues important to these communities, such as religious concerns and farm laws.
The upcoming Haryana Assembly elections are anticipated to be highly competitive, with caste dynamics significantly influencing voter preferences and party strategies. The growing consolidation of votes from Dalit, Muslim, and Sikh communities against the BJP, along with strategic alliances such as INLD-BSP and JJP-ASP, signals a notable shift in the political landscape. The ability of these alliances to effectively address voter concerns will be crucial in shaping the outcome of the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections.
Jyoti Mishra is a research associate at Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
Haryana Jats traditionally are Congress voters. BJP has never been their preference. BJP’s chances of success are thin this time around. It will totally depend on whether the BJP can effectively stitch together a coalition of non-Jat groups. However, Dalits would be very crucial in this endeavour.