This week is the most crucial week for the ongoing war. We will have to see whether America will take a call to double down on the fight or not,” said one of the top sources in the Modi government.
As the turning point of the war approaches, the Modi government is weighing its options and reviewing ongoing efforts to procure oil and gas from various countries and through different sea routes.
Foreign minister S Jaishankar and petroleum minister Hardeep Puri have been dialling countries that can lessen the shock of the war on the Indian economy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in parliament Monday was also an acknowledgement of “unprecedented challenges for India”. He reminded people that India should face every challenge with patience, restraint and a calm mind.
Trump and his threat politics
Looking at the war from the prism of Indian interests, the source in the government added, “The West Asia war has revealed that the Strait of Hormuz has the power to destabilise the global economy. No doubt that the war has been narrowed down around the Hormuz.”
When asked how New Delhi views the war in West Asia and when it is likely to end, the response was a mix of caution and hope.
This week, US President Donald Trump is likely to take a call on “securing safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz. Till then, New Delhi and other state capitals will have to keep their fingers crossed.
According to multiple sources in the government, India is comfortable ensuring oil supply in the Indian market, but the concerned ministries are focusing on finding new avenues for gas procurement, which will become a major challenge if the war continues or escalates further.
There are also reports in American media that the Trump administration is contemplating a certain move that could end or escalate the Iran war.
As one of the reports claimed, “In the Persian Gulf, about 20 miles off the Iranian coast, is a small, rocky island called Kharg that could be the Trump administration’s key to victory in the war it unleashed. It could also be America’s undoing.”
Amid these uncertainties, Modi on 21 March chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) to review the global situation. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah and Jaishankar, along with other senior ministers, were present at the meeting.
The meeting was held in the background of American ships moving from the Pacific Ocean near Japan to West Asia.
The Indian establishment, as is happening in other capitals in the world, has been constantly decoding various posts by Trump.
On 23 March, Trump posted on Social Truth, “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, TO PUT IT MILDLY!!!”
A day earlier, Trump posted, “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
While Trump was claiming to consider “winding down” the Iran War, the US Navy was moving F-35-laden ships toward Iran.
On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said it “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not!”
However, the very next day, serious talks of American Marines seizing Kharg Island had started.
Also read: Iran and Israel weren’t always enemies. In fact, they were allies
‘India knows where its interest lies’
Indian policymakers are closely monitoring this volatile situation.
In India, the critics of the Modi government are at their sharpest, but the right-leaning government doesn’t seem perturbed by the criticism.
In the ongoing war, Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its support to the Islamist organisations like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and sundry fundamentalist militia have been concerns of India, too, for many decades.
The policymaker within the government said, “India knows where its interest lies”. Many sources claimed that there is no ideological or policy-level confusion within the government to prepare a response for the unfolding situation.
The timing of Modi’s visit to Israel on 25 and 26 February is severely criticised because it was held uncomfortably close to the war that started on 28 February. For a long time, it will be debated why India didn’t keep a safe distance from Israel, which was about to go to war against Iran.
Sources in the government are asking a counter question, “Were you aware of the meeting that took place in the residence of the Ayatollah in downtown Tehran on 28 February that prompted American and Israeli defence forces to hit the venue of the meeting where Ayatollah Khamenei himself was present?”
The war started on 28 February solely because of the Iranian government’s top brass meeting, which Tel Aviv monitored live.
Another issue that has divided Indian analysts is the delayed message of condolences on the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri conveyed official condolences only five days later by signing the condolence book. These two issues will be endlessly debated, but right now, the government is putting all emphasis on the economic impact and is concerned about the safety of the Indians in the war zone.
A senior member of “Team Modi” claimed that India is efficiently managing its oil procurement and supply. When asked about the procuring and importing of gas, the source claimed, “We will know at the end of this week what the status of the global gas market will be.’
Disagreeing with the global and Indian media’s most quoted opinions that Israel is calling the shots in this war, the source in New Delhi said, “This war’s future will be decided bilaterally only between America and Iran”.
So far, Iran hasn’t given any sign that it will end the war soon while interacting with India.
Also read: India must take advantage of Iran crisis, shift gears from fuel to organic waste management
‘Iran demonstrated resources in this war’
As has happened in all world capitals, India is surprised to see how, in the last four decades, ‘the earnings of oil and gas’ have been invested intelligently in defence equipment and in building Iran’s military capacity.
One of the government sources claimed that despite sanctions, ‘Iran was not a poor country’ and it has demonstrated its resources in this war.
Interestingly, one of the sources shared the Indian assessment that at the end of the war, the sheikhs and kings of the Gulf countries will take the pragmatic view of the war and its impact, mainly because no immediate alternatives exist to transform the security paradigm drastically.
This is a matter of huge interest to India.
The Gulf countries are highly unlikely to make dramatic changes in the existing security arrangements, international alignments and allies, or apparatus that gives them leeway to attend to the development of their respective regions and stability of their respective power. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have no confusion over the war. They want Iran to lose its primacy in the region.
In such a situation, the Modi government is asking Indians to get ready to “challenge every challenge.”
Sheela Bhatt is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @sheela2010. Views are personal.
(Edited by Saptak Datta)