India and China made a surprise announcement about a long-anticipated patrolling agreement on the Line of Actual Control. It was surprising in that there was no incremental build-up to the scale of the announcement. In such high-tension stand-offs, conditions improve but gradually and piecemeal. Beijing hasn’t been budging from its expansionist mode for a while now, having blocked and denied long-agreed patrolling access to Indian troops. But this agreement was also long anticipated as the tensions hadn’t risen beyond boiling point for over four years. It was about chipping at the roadblocks.
India has been patient, sometimes agonisingly so, in dealing with a China that has constantly shifted its positions with the evolving moods in Beijing. The only constant in China’s approach to India and the LAC issue has been the continual alterations that it has adopted. Principles and policies that have long stood the test of time can be jettisoned by Beijing should they suit the currently prevailing political trends in the Forbidden City. After all the LAC, although not formally demarcated, nor mutually agreed in terms of alignment, did form a Laxman Rekha that both sides respected in letter and spirit.
Going by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s initial announcement, it appears that the LAC will return to the alignment along which long-established patrolling protocols functioned. The patrolling protocols recognised a fundamental principle – that there was an LAC that was disputed due to the lack of mutual agreement on its alignment. But both sides retained access rights along its areas owing to protocols devised over years of military wisdom.
Shifting goalposts is part of the plot
In a unilateral move in April 2020, Beijing denied India patrolling access to areas that it suddenly identified as its own. Principles and policies jettisoned in a whiff.
Now that there is an agreement on patrolling rights, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok, India must welcome this development with a sigh of relief and as a sign of success from years of patient perseverance. Because dealing with China and its People’s Liberation Army is not everyone’s cup of tea.
Unlike most societies and other civilisational states, China doesn’t necessarily operate in the current calendar space. It straddles a simultaneous period that spans back to a perceived ‘golden past’ and leads into a future that would restore this glory.
In which case, the current period cannot expect to be regarded as a continuation of the past, but simply a correction of errors. For this, Beijing will adopt any policy that it deems to be useful for its targeted status of the future. So, shifting goalposts is simply part of the plot if it suits the achievement of planned goals. Understanding that aspect of China’s political psychology is essential to getting a grip on its programmes and processes. With his long military career, Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi has enunciated the correct approach to dealing with Beijing.
The COAS essentially said that China cannot be trusted and as good as the patrolling agreement is, India must maintain its guard at all times. Don’t trust but keep verifying because facts on the ground can be at odds with the enunciated position – especially when you’re dealing with a Beijing that deliberately keeps policy and positions opaque.
This is most apparent from the tone and tenor of China’s official announcement about the patrolling agreement. While the experienced Indian Foreign Secretary had a welcoming tone, with caution built in, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s reaction was anything but welcoming and replete with arrogance.
Also read: India-China LAC issue needs new imagination. It’s too tangled in nationalism now
Prepare for China’s ‘solution plan’
The day after India’s official announcement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, while not uttering a word about the patrolling agreement, said: “Currently, the two sides have reached a solution on the relevant matters, which China views positively. In the next phase, China will work with India to effectively implement the solution plan.”
It is obvious from the official Chinese response that Beijing still believes it has the initiative in this matter. It will respond as and when it deems necessary, according to its own plans, rather than pursuing any bilateral interests in this vexing matter.
So ‘next phase’ and ‘solution plan’ are subjects to be dealt with according to the timetable set by Beijing. And India should be suitably prepared. Considering the enormous resources that China has invested in this dispute – by mobilising thousands of soldiers and hardware to match – an early settlement of this problem seems unlikely. General Dwivedi has voiced caution, which is the correct approach toward dealing with the situation as it stands. India’s patience has paid off in terms of a possible thawing at the heights, but preparations must continue for continuing chill.
Manvendra Singh is a BJP leader, Editor-in-Chief of Defence & Security Alert and Chairman, Soldier Welfare Advisory Committee, Rajasthan. He tweets @ManvendraJasol. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)