New Delhi: The Manohar Lal Khattar government Wednesday won the vote of no-confidence brought against it by the opposition Congress.
The ruling BJP government won the vote by 55 to 32 as all 10 MLAs of its alliance partner, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), voted in its favour. The no-confidence motion was significant because of the tussle between the BJP and JJP in the state over the farmers’ agitation.
In episode 700 of ‘Cut the Clutter’, ThePrint’s Editor-in-chief Shekhar Gupta explained the intricacies of the alliance’s victory in the trust vote, the role played by the farmers’ agitation and what this means.
Fighting for the Jat vote
Gupta pointed out that even though the agitation has been focused in three states, Haryana has played a significant role in it because it borders Delhi.
“The farmers’ agitation, at this point, is focused on three states — Punjab, where the BJP has no stakes, Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP rules but is not so worried about what happens in western UP… but Haryana is very important because it borders Delhi like Uttar Pradesh,” Gupta said.
Haryana is a state that BJP rules “despite the fact that it does not have the Jat vote”. According to Gupta, the BJP was elevated to power for a second successive term in the state despite the absence of the Jat vote as the gap was filled by the JJP (which had secured a significant part of this voter base).
“This coalition was about bringing the Jat factor in the BJP government, which the BJP itself was lacking. Jats are 20 per cent voters in Haryana, but they are also the most empowered, dominant caste in Haryana… it is the same Jat base where farm protest finds most of their support,” he said. Singhu and Tikri, the epicentres of the protest, are in fact Jat-dominated districts.
Also read: Khattar govt defeats Congress no-confidence vote in Haryana, Hooda says mission accomplished
About the trust vote
Highlighting the fact that the BJP could not afford to lose Haryana, Gupta said that if viewed in terms of numbers this situation would have been unlikely.
“But then these MLAs of JJP and some independents were coming under massive popular pressure. Their houses were being gheraoed by farmers, they were getting socially boycotted,” he said.
In fact, a day before the trust vote, JJP MLA Devender Singh Babli underlined the pressure the party was facing while saying that it was time for the JJP to walk out of the alliance. He was among the seven other MLAs who had also spoken against the BJP over the issue, giving the opposition hope that the party would break away from the alliance.
During the trust vote, however, all 10 JJP MLAs voted in favour of their alliance partner, proving the opposition wrong.
“Politicians may worry about being stoned when they go home, they may worry about being beaten up, but when they look at the next elections being three years away, then the only thing that matters to them is power, and if they have that power, they are not willing to give it up,” Gupta explained.
JJP’s leverage
A one-man show, JJP is helmed by Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Singh Chautala. As Gupta pointed out, despite having just 10 seats in this assembly, Chautala himself holds 11 portfolios.
The portfolios include excise and taxation, industry and commerce, development and panchayats, labour and employment and civil aviation. “With all this — 10 MLAs and 11 portfolios — who wants to give it up?
“You can say this is an outcome where everyone has won,” Gupta added.
While JJP managed to hold onto power, for Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar the victory meant a breather as his government cannot, constitutionally, be challenged for another six months, during which time the Centre hopes the farm agitation will die out.
“It is also a victory for [Congress leader] Bhupinder Singh Hooda … what he’s gained is he has now exposed all the JJP and Independents who voted along with the BJP government,” Gupta said and added, “To his farmer and Jat base he can go and say that we are the guys who have backed you when those others let you down.”
Secondly, within the Congress itself, that has cut-throat factionalism, Hooda has demonstrated that he has been able to keep his flock together.
“But for the farmer’s agitation it was a little bit of a let down… politics has prevailed, interest of power has prevailed and at the same time the pressure of the farm agitation has failed,” Gupta said.
Also read: How West Bengal elections will change the course of national politics
Quad summit & US Defense Secretary’s India visit
At the end of the episode, Gupta also talked about the fast-moving developments in lieu of the upcoming Quad summit.
Leaders of the Quad countries — India, the US, Japan and Australia — will meet Friday.
“What is happening is the pace of developments is much faster than what usually happens in geopolitics,” he said.
These include the phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Yoshihide Suga.
While the Indian readout of the conversation didn’t mention anything of significance, the Japanese readout of the conversation said that both leaders shared their priority for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The Japanese Prime Minister is also said to have expressed his concern over the unilateral efforts to change status quo in East and South China Sea referring to China’s coast guard law.
“He also talked about the situation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, which is something that India doesn’t talk about often or wants to be seen talking about,” Gupta noted.
Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is also scheduled to visit India. “This is the first foreign visit by an American secretary-level officer — and that visit is to India… the choice of India is very interesting,” Gupta said.
Referring to the tweets exchanged between Austin and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Gupta said, “That tells you that this relationship is in a good place in spite of the change in Washington.”
Also read: Why China is the Kautilya of international politics
Congress has won a moral victory as usual!