Donald Trump’s dramatic return to American politics has reignited intense debates around climate policy and economic strategy in China. A Baidu commentator said: “Trump closed the door, but Chinese car companies opened a window.” The US president kicked off his second term with a series of executive orders, which included the revocation of Joe Biden’s 2021 electric vehicle mandate. It had sought to electrify 50 per cent of vehicle sales in the United States by 2030, aligning with broader decarbonisation goals.
The predictability of Trump’s climate denialism could be a strategic opportunity, according to Chinese discourse, for Beijing to step into a more prominent role globally.
Trump has positioned his environmental policy rollbacks as a defence of American industry, asserting that “the US would not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity.” This rhetoric reflects his hardline stance against Beijing, underscoring his ‘America First’ approach.
China steps into the vacuum
The Paris Agreement, though fundamentally an environmental pact, has become a key geopolitical instrument. The US withdrawal from this accord has undeniably diminished American influence, creating a geopolitical vacuum that China has eagerly sought to fill.
One Chinese analyst attributed this exit to several factors – such as Trump’s America First doctrine, economic priorities, and his sheer ignorance of climate change. These elements, coupled with a desire to reinforce a hardline domestic and foreign policy has created an opportunity for China to increase its global prominence in climate diplomacy.
Another perspective contended that Trump’s decision to pull back from the Paris Agreement is allowing the US to evade obligations related to greenhouse gas emissions reporting, thus diminishing its responsibilities under the accord. Additionally, some commentators have pointed out that Trump’s opposition to carbon neutrality had lost considerable political traction in the US, with even traditionally supportive sectors—such as the oil and gas industry—growing increasingly skeptical of such positions over time.
Meanwhile, Zhang Xiliang, Director of the Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economics at Tsinghua University, emphasised China’s strategic focus on cultivating an image of responsible global leadership. He highlighted China’s commitment to assisting emerging economies in their climate transition, contrasting it with the insufficient support often provided by developed Western nations.
In this context, Wang Yi from Peking University identified geopolitical tensions as a major impediment to effective climate action, arguing that unilateral measures, such as decoupling strategies, not only escalate the costs of green technologies but also undermine the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Wang advocated for multilateral negotiations that account for the interests of all global players. Many in China, including Zhai Yanping, senior advisor to Tencent’s strategic development department, asserted that collective action on climate change is vital, with China, the US, and Europe complementing each other’s strengths in global climate governance.
Zou Ji, CEO of Energy Foundation China, cautioned that political momentum for global climate action could wane because of the US withdrawal. However, Zou also acknowledged that American climate efforts are not exclusively determined by the federal government. Subnational actors such as state governments, local authorities, and private sector entities continue to prioritise climate action, ensuring that the broader global effort remains resilient despite federal policy shifts.
For China, Zou suggested, the country must continue to address climate change in line with its developmental capabilities, positioning itself as a responsible global power increasingly ready to assume a leadership role.
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US-China EV race
Trump’s policies carry significant implications for the global EV market, especially regarding China-US competition. A Baidu commentator noted that rising tariffs and stricter import regulations could hinder Chinese EV manufacturers’ access to the US market.
These protectionist measures could limit Chinese EV sales and harm its global reputation, with other countries potentially following suit. Analysts warn that such restrictions could also curb opportunities for the China-US collaboration on EV technologies, given their shared goals in energy transition and sustainability.
Even if Chinese companies retain their technological edge and cost efficiency, they can expect high competition in the US market despite Trump’s protectionist stance.
However, the US strategy of reshaping its manufacturing base through trade barriers could prove ineffective, as it risks overlooking crucial opportunities for industrial growth. As highlighted by a Chinese commentator, Beijing’s dominance in the global EV sector—bolstered by its manufacturing capabilities, integrated supply chains, and investments in key resources—poses a significant challenge to Washington. Bridging this gap will demand substantial innovation and long-term commitment from US manufacturers.
In response to external pressures, China’s automotive industry is advancing rapidly in EVs and software-defined vehicles. By 2025, one-third of Chinese cars will feature high-performance central computing units, surpassing the global average. This technological edge enhances China’s competitiveness and helps counter US blockades.
This dynamic reflects the broader competition between the US and China in the global EV sector, with profound implications for both the automotive industry and the geopolitical landscape. Some analysts have noted that Trump’s America First agenda is inadvertently fostering a closer relationship between China and the European Union.
European leaders, including EU President Ursula von der Leyen, have adopted less critical rhetoric toward China. This signals EU’s recognition of viable alternatives to the US, particularly in light of ongoing tariff disputes with the country.
In 2024, China’s EV exports surpassed two million units, with the majority directed toward European markets. As one Weibo user commented, “There are no permanent friends in business, only enduring interests.” According to Chinese economic commentator Pan Yu, the growing presence of Chinese EVs in international markets suggests that Trump’s protectionist policies are unlikely to halt China’s expansion in the global EV industry.
Opportunity for China
Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies and his America First stance have inadvertently positioned China to take on a leadership role in global climate change efforts, self-sufficiency, and the development of electric vehicles.
This shift, however, has occurred in the absence of a coherent and sustainable long-term strategy from the US to counter China’s rise.
The consequences for Washington remain uncertain, as do the broader implications for international climate governance. Current Chinese discourse suggests a continued trend of upward mobility in Beijing’s role as a global climate leader – particularly as it fills the void left by the US departure from the Paris Agreement.
In the EV sector, China is already exploring new markets, self-sufficiency, and partnerships, nurturing a trajectory of international collaboration and interdependence.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
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