Some time ago, an important piece of news, important for the future, didn’t garner much attention—the total fertility rate of India has come down to just 1.99 in 2022. According to demographic theories, if the total fertility rate—the average number of children born to women in their lifetime—falls below 2.1 then the population of the country will start decreasing.
For a long time, the increasing population in India was seen as a burden. According to the demographic transition theory, this situation arises when the country is still underdeveloped, but due to advances in the field of medicine, better health facilities develop. In other words, when the medical revolution comes before the industrial revolution. Due to this, the birth rate in the country decreases at a very slow pace while the death rate falls rapidly. Its effect is that the rate of population growth starts increasing. This situation—called population explosion—was seen in India from 1950 to 1980. But after the 1980s, the birth rate went down further, hence the natural rate of population growth also started declining.
The decline in the mortality rate of infants below the age of one has a big impact on population. In India, it decreased from 111.7 per thousand in 1981 to 86.6 per thousand in 1991, 64.5 per thousand in 2001 and only 43.2 per thousand in 2011. It has declined to merely 27.7 per thousand in 2022, according to the data published by the National Population Registrar.
This led to a new opportunity for the country. Due to the decreasing infant mortality rate, the youth population in the country started increasing continuously, a phenomenon known as demographic dividend. If we take the data from 2001, the population of youth (age group of 15 to 34 years) in the country was 33.80 per cent of the total population, which increased to 34.85 per cent in 2011. It is currently more than 35.3 per cent of the total population. When one looks at absolute numbers, it becomes clear that today, India has the largest number of youth in comparison to any other country. This segment of the population can contribute more to development.
Everyone is talking about taking advantage of this situation and taking the country on the path of progress. Most economists agree that population is not a burden if used judiciously. There is a need to make full and efficient use of our youth power.
Fear of population decline
The natural rate of population growth has gone below zero in most ‘developed countries’. Which means their population is decreasing. In many such countries, there is some balance in the population due to the arrival of immigrants. Still, the chance of this situation continuing in the long run is low. In these countries, the fertility rate indicated a decline in population growth.
A similar situation is now happening in India. And the country’s demographic advantage is available only till 2042. Thus, the gross fertility rate of 1.99 can come in the way of the country’s progress.
The question is not only about the decline in the total fertility rate, there are also concerns about the differing rate in different sections of society. It is noteworthy that the fertility rate among illiterate women first increased, from 3.33 in 1991 to 3.36 in 2001, and later it decreased to 3.17 in 2011. But among women who are graduates and above, fertility rate has been consistently declining. In 1991 it was 1.62 and in 2011 it was 1.40. This is the same trend observed with women educated above matriculation and below the graduate level. Their fertility rate declined from 2.08 in 1991 to 1.77 by 2011.
These figures show that for people who can impart better education to their children and a better life, the fertility rate is low and for those who cannot, the fertility rate is high. If the fertility rate is high among illiterate, and is low and declining among educated, future composition of population will change for the worse in terms of quality.
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‘Double Income No Kids’
A new way of life is emerging in high-income pockets in urban areas, and is more prevalent among the educated and highly educated people. This thinking is inspired by the consumerist mindset of the West. Working couples are now aspiring to live a more independent and luxurious life instead of raising a family.
The institution of family has had a special importance in Indian society. Parents, along with their children and grandchildren have been happy while living as a family. But for some time now, the trend of joint families has been gradually on the decline.
These days there is also a tendency among some young couples to avoid the bond of marriage and opt for live-in relationship. Those in such relationships, generally don’t have children. Even many of those who get married, are not interested in having children. This thinking, that is, DINKS, double income no kids, is gaining currency.
And even if they do have a child, many couples are not interested in having more than one. Due to all this, fewer children are being born among the educated youth.
The figures of the continuously declining fertility rate among educated women are a reflection of the changing beliefs in society. This emerging situation in demography does not bode well for the rising level of population in the country. Although theoretically, even in uneducated and less educated families, children can become better off through education, there is a greater possibility that they remain illiterate and poor. Such a situation can bring down the quality of population. There is a need for deep thinking on this subject by society and the government.
Ashwani Mahajan is a professor at PGDAV College, University of Delhi. He tweets @ashwani_mahajan. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)