Janata Dal (United) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has done what any other shrewd politician with extraordinary survival instincts and expendable scruples would do. After chairing the first all-party meeting in October 2023 after the results of caste survey in Bihar, Nitish attended the INDIA coalition meeting in January and conveniently declined the offer to be the bloc’s convenor while Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge was declared its chairman.
Nitish knew that two things would result from this proposal. One, the Congress would eat into his vote base and lose heavily in the Lok Sabha election; and two, his government would be toppled by JD(U) partners through defection in the Bihar assembly. The only way he could have remained in power until the 2024 election and beyond was by ditching the opposition camp. He knows he cannot beat the BJP and therefore decided to jump ship. As the saying goes, ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’.
With the establishment of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and the abrogation of Article 370 taken care of, and the economy doing fairly better than many of the G20 countries, the BJP under Narendra Modi is all set to begin its third innings in May 2024. Besides JD(U), more parties like the Kerala Janapaksham (Secular) led by seven-time legislator PC George are joining the NDA bandwagon. So, Nitish joining NDA isn’t a surprise; it would be if he had not.
This is not the first time that a prospective prime ministerial candidate is switching sides, ditching the parties that hoisted them to a larger-than-life stature. In 2019, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda suggested the name of TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu as the consensus candidate for the PM post because he and other parties, including the Congress, expected a repeat of 1996. Congress had supported regional leaders in 1996 to form a government but they did not last long, resulting in another election in 1998. Naidu did a quick back of the envelope calculation and realised that it was not the BJP but the Congress that had dented his vote bank and bagged 22 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats polling 42.7 per cent vote share in his home ground, the unified Andhra Pradesh. His immediate priority was to stop the Congress and deal with the BJP some other day if he survives.
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Nitish Kumar saved himself
Nitish seems to have done a similar arithmetic in Bihar. He appears to have pre-empted a coup against his leadership by the very same parties that posed as his partners in power. Sooner than later, his partner the RJD would have dented his vote bank with the help of the Congress and ousted him from power. His immediate rival thus was the RJD and the Congress and not the BJP. As a result, a beleaguered Congress is left dumbfounded staring at oblivion.
Again, this is not the first time that the Congress party is in trouble and facing oblivion. Like 2014 and 2019, it had lost two consecutive elections in 1996 and 1998 as well. Ironically, in the 1996 election, the Congress polled 28.8 per cent votes but got 140 seats while the BJP polled 20.29 per cent of votes and managed to win 161 seats. The Congress’ worst performance was in Uttar Pradesh where it contested 85 seats and won only five, polling just 8.14 per cent votes while forfeiting deposits in 75 seats.
The Congress again lost in 1998 to the BJP. The party was badly divided from within and all its allies left for greener pastures. Veteran Congress leaders in the states were either in a rebellious mood or were disinterested in strengthening the party at the cost of their leadership role in the states.
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Congress back in same position
The situation now is similar and yet different in some aspects. After two consecutive defeats, the Congress has been dumped by most of the Next-Gen leaders and all its allies who prefer to keep the states for themselves and try their luck at the Centre at the same time. There is very little or rather no possibility of the BJP requiring the support of any of these parties. Yet, they would prefer to register their presence in Parliament only to be accommodated in the ensuing “Congress-mukt” power structure.
The Congress, after humiliating defeats, has returned to power, at least twice, in 1978 and 2004. The return in 2004 was made possible by the shrewd political strategies by the Left leaders and the party willing to play second fiddle to every regional party. It survived utter defeats and came to power, albeit on the crutches of the Left parties. Neither of them has any strategists left now.
As it is said, every dark cloud has a silver lining. Totally isolated and discarded by TMC, AAP, and other regional outfits, the Congress can still dare to take on the BJP on its own. It can play the “ekla chalo re” (go it alone) game back on its former friends. But for this, the party needs a new leadership. The present “family scion” will have to be stopped from going on sporadic yatras and make foot-in-the-mouth statements, adding strength to the BJP’s seats tally. The Congress party under the “family” leadership seems to have achieved the critical mass of “escape velocity” from the political arena. After the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress might split into various groups and become irrelevant in the country’s politics.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)