The world’s longest-serving female head of state, Sheikh Hasina, whose father endured a torturous journey to defy Pakistan Army and found a new nation, has resigned as prime minister and sought asylum in India. Four years after Bangladesh’s liberation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and several family members were brutally assassinated on 15 August 1975. Hasina, her two children, and her sister dodged death, as they were out of the country at the time. They took refuge in India for the next six years, amid warnings from the army never to return. She defied these warnings, returned to Bangladesh, contested elections, won, and laid a strong foundation for democracy, secularism, and economic growth.
Five decades later, the Bangladesh Army, led by one of her close relatives, staged a coup but spared her life, and she is back in India for asylum—potentially never to return to her country.
According to media reports, the parliament building has been attacked, Hasina’s house has been vandalised, and statues of Sheikh Mujib and Rabindranath Tagore—who together gave Bangladesh a country and an anthem—have been torn down. Hindu temples, homes, and villages have been attacked by mobs shouting anti-India slogans. The 1971 liberation of Bangladesh from the tyrannical, blood-thirsty Pakistan Army has come full circle.
Resentment over reservations for the descendants of the 1971 war heroes and freedom fighters has been brewing for some time. The government used the police force to respond to the rioters. When that failed, the army was called in. This is where the devil seemingly entered the scene, scripting the future course of events.
Also read: Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy
Chinks in ‘Neighbourhood First’
If the current situation comes as a surprise to the top echelons of power in New Delhi, it reflects an unfortunate, abject failure of intelligence gathering, strategic planning, and safeguarding national interests and minority populations in Bangladesh, particularly the shrinking Hindu community. After a snub from the Maldives, which took a pro-china stance, and a shift in Nepal’s government towards Beijing, events in Bangladesh reveal the chinks in India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.
It seems the Bangladesh Army was waiting for a strategic moment to unseat Hasina and seize power. Possible motivations include Beijing’s overt dissatisfaction with Hasina’s awarding of the $1 billion Teesta Comprehensive Management & Restoration project, which favoured India over China, wary of another debt trap similar to that of Colombo. Although India delayed the decision, it eventually agreed to avoid China’s encroachment on its eastern border under the guise of infrastructure projects. This project is one of many infrastructure collaborations between New Delhi and Dhaka. With the army in the saddle now, Dhaka, might see the project delayed or shelved and then handed over to Beijing.
Besides China, the US—which has never been comfortable with the creation of Bangladesh (Henry Kissinger referred to it as a ‘basket case’)—has consistently supported Pakistan over Bangladesh, invited Islamabad to a virtual summit on democracy while excluding Bangladesh, and covertly supported anti-Hasina forces like Jamaat-e-Islami. But faced with Beijing’s advances, the US also sought a naval base on St. Martin’s Island, control over land near Myanmar border, and other facilities, including an air base.
The regime change in Dhaka bears the imprints of both China and the US, as the student protests seem to be the veneer of a much deeper and more sinister plot to destabilise not only Bangladesh but the entire region.
Also read: New Delhi needs to distance itself from Sheikh Hasina to show willingness to move on
Suspend exports, act decisively
An unstable Bangladesh will undoubtedly create several economic, social, and political problems for India. Neither a military-led government nor an interim civilian government closely watched by the army can guarantee normalcy or distance itself from radical elements already causing social rifts. By being a catalyst for the fall of Hasina’s government, these radical elements will now regroup and extract their pound of flesh from the political establishment.
New Delhi will have to do much more than merely wait and watch. A stern message must go to Dhaka that anti-India actions and pogroms will have serious consequences. India should suspend exports of essential commodities—such as wheat, rice, lentils, onions, spices, sugar, oil cake, and electricity—until normalcy is restored and goons on the streets are rounded up.
The future of Bangladesh cannot be left to be decided by vandals on the streets of Dhaka or by unelected civilians whose apron strings will now be attached to the army. New Delhi must assert its position and act decisively. The top brass of the Bangladesh Army in Dhaka should be reminded of ongoing discussions regarding a $500 million defence line of credit for military hardware, naval cooperations through port calls, the supply of 800-ton ocean-going tug for the Bangladesh Navy, and military cooperation to contain the influx of refugees from Myanmar. New Delhi should insist on the restoration of parliamentary democracy, a scheduled timeline for elections, and security for Indian nationals, assets, and the Hindu minority in Bangladesh.
India reserves the right to intervene in Dhaka’s ongoing events as its security, strategic, and national interests are at stake.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)
Dear Seshadri Chari, The suggestion you offered is completely wrong and suicidal. India is full with internal problems. It neither has capacity nor the wherewithal to interfere in internal problems of Bangladesh. Let Bangladesh people decide what kind of governance they need. Learn from China. Even if it is very strong militarily and economically, it doesn’t interfere in internal affairs of another. Only USA, the most powerful does that, that too mostly under UN.