The answer to the most pressing question in Bangladesh today depends on another question. Everyone is asking whether national elections will be held in early February next year.
Bangladeshi media outlets had reported that 8 February 2026 was the tentative date for national polls. “Since there are two government holidays just before 8 February, voters living in cities, especially job holders, will be able to travel to their home districts to cast their votes,” an official at the Chief Adviser’s Office had told The Business Standard.
Then, the local press reported that polls will likely take place between 8 and 14 February. Now, the Bangladesh Election Commission has announced 12 February as the date for the next national polls.
There is some scepticism in Bangladesh over the announcement, as the national elections have been postponed before. In fact, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the country’s largest opposition party, has been on a collision course with the interim government over the delayed elections.
And then there is the other question: why is BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman not returning to Dhaka?
Rahman’s mother, former Bangladeshi prime minister Khaleda Zia, has been critically ill since 23 November and was hospitalised at the Evercare Hospital in Dhaka. And national elections are around the bend. Yet, Rahman has not returned from his self-imposed exile in London.
Rahman’s return to Dhaka and the fate of the next national polls in Bangladesh seem to be inextricably linked.
Who is Rahman afraid of?
Rahman’s continued absence has got tongues wagging even among Bangladesh watchers outside the country. It is conjectured that Rahman’s life could be at risk if he returns to Dhaka.
On 2 December, Home Affairs Adviser Lt Gen Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury (retd) assured the BNP leader of any support needed for his security.
“I believe BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman will return to the country within November,” BNP standing committee member Salahuddin Ahmed had told the press.
On 6 October, Rahman told BBC Bangla in his first face-to-face interview in nearly 20 years that he was planning to return.
“The time has come, God willing, I will return soon,” he said.
By 29 November, he had changed his stance.
“There are limits to how much detail can be shared about this sensitive matter. Our family remains hopeful that as soon as the political realities reach a favourable stage, the prolonged, anxious wait for my return to my homeland will finally come to an end,” Rahman said.
What are the factors keeping him away? He has been acquitted in most of the court cases against him after the interim government came to power. These include the 21 August 2004 grenade attack case in which Rahman and 18 others had been earlier sentenced to life imprisonment.
Rahman’s political rival Sheikh Hasina is in India and has been given a death penalty by the International Crimes Tribunal, while all political activities of her party remain banned.
Who does Rahman fear within Bangladesh, so much so that he cannot come home to see his ailing mother or take charge of his party before a crucial election?
Rise of the Jamaat
The BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, the National Citizen Party, and other registered parties are busy finalising candidates for the 300 single-member parliamentary constituencies, and election schedule may soon be announced.
But there is gnawing fear among those who want Bangladesh to return to parliamentary democracy that elections may not be held after all. And that is because of the Jamaat-e-Islami’s iron grip over Bangladeshi institutions.
The Jamaat students’ wing, the Bangladeshi Islami Chhatra Shibir, bagged a surprise victory at the students’ union election at the prestigious Dhaka University in September. As similar wins in other educational institutions followed, the world woke up to the Jamaat’s growing influence in Bangladesh’s society and politics.
In the last parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, held on 7 January 2024, the Jamaat was barred from participating. It was only on 1 June 2025 that the Supreme Court of Bangladesh ordered the Election Commission to restore its registration.
To anyone keeping an eye on Dhaka, however, the Jamaat’s rise since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government has been unstoppable.
“The party’s identity in Bangladesh is being reshaped by an emerging ‘Islamist Left’, that combines Islamic principles with social and economic justice, inclusion, and expanded citizenship rights,” Vivekananda International Foundation’s Puspa Kumari wrote.
Kumari quoted a recent national youth survey conducted by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling to show that 39 per cent of the voters under the age of 35 support the BNP, while approximately 22 per cent of voters now support the Jamaat.
Yet, the Jamaat is trying to delay elections in Bangladesh, irking its former ally, the BNP. Salahuddin Ahmed questioned the Jamaat on the delays during a youth dialogue in Dhaka on 20 September.
“Some newspapers carried headlines saying that Jamaat leaders claimed they will form the government while BNP will sit in opposition. But who decides that? Is it you, or is it the people? If you are so confident, then why don’t you join the election instead of making excuses one after another to obstruct it?” Ahmed said.
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Not ready for Rahman/elections?
Many political analysts in Bangladesh remain convinced that no matter how powerful the Jamaat has become, it still does not have the electoral heft to win an election. So it neither wants elections nor Rahman’s return to Dhaka to enthuse the BNP cadre for early polls.
Bangladeshi actor and journalist Deepanwita Roy Martin told ThePrint over the phone that Rahman is delaying his return to Bangladesh because he fears for his life.
“Rahman and a section of the BNP may want polls, but the Jamaat won’t, as it won’t fare well in elections. It doesn’t have the popular vote, even if it has captured institutions. Interestingly, there are other political players within Bangladesh who won’t want elections at this juncture,” Martin said.
The Awami League is being kept out of polls for now. Mohammad Ali Arafat, who was the Interior Minister of Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina’s government, told ThePrint that it would be difficult for Yunus to proceed with a “one-sided, predetermined and manipulated election”.
“The government and the law-enforcing agencies are too weak to ensure a peaceful process across 40,000 polling centres nationwide,” he said.
Arafat’s words proved prophetic on 12 December. Sharif Osman Hadi, a prospective independent MP candidate from the Dhaka-8 constituency, was shot and critically injured in Dhaka’s Paltan-Bijoynagar area, sending shockwaves across Bangladesh.
The attack has raised new doubts about elections being held as early as 12 February, Bangladeshi political journalist Sahidul Hasan Khokon told ThePrint.
“The BNP has announced that Tarique Rahman will return home on 25 December. But it seems highly unlikely now, more so after the attack on Hadi,” Khokon said.
Bangladesh’s political equations are now shifting sands. Until things settle, Rahman may not return, and elections may not take place so soon either.
Deep Halder is an author and a contributing editor at ThePrint. He tweets @deepscribble. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)