It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to guess that Pakistan’s recent decision to appoint a National Security Adviser is influenced by its current tensions with India. The sources I interviewed suggested that the United States advised Pakistan to make the appointment now, as it would need someone responsible to speak with the Indian NSA when the opportunity arises.
Indubitably, the region is in crisis. Escalation is imminent, despite the widespread belief in Islamabad that New Delhi cannot respond as it did in 2019. The international community, including India’s friends (such as the US), do not want New Delhi or Islamabad to escalate things further. Both sides, however, have not spoken to each other directly since the Pulwama-Balakot crisis, or last year, in a track-1.5 dialogue. A serious conversation is now necessary. Not just to de-escalate, but to ensure that limited wars can be contained in a nuclear environment.
From Pakistan’s perspective, Lt. General Asim Malik is certainly the man for the NSA job. He is a serving General, in charge of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). He is an officer who has the favour of the Pakistan Army chief, and is not answerable to the civilian government. Unlike some of his predecessors, Malik won’t face the problem of divided loyalties between the army chief and prime minister, or of appearing too independent from the military. For example, during the 2008-2013 Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government, then-NSA Major General Mahmud Ali Durrani admitted—against the army’s wishes—that terrorist Ajmal Kasab was a Pakistani national. The service soon lost confidence in him, and he was removed from the NSA post.
A fitting NSA
Asim Malik’s name wasn’t the only one considered for the NSA post. As some well-informed people in Islamabad I spoke to said, there were a few other candidates in the mix –including former ISI Director-General Lt. General Nadeem Anjum (retd), two Pakistanis abroad with good contacts in the US government, and at least one who had strong ties with some Middle Eastern rulers.
Therefore, the question of filling the NSA’s chair had been under deliberation for long, with various candidates vying for the post. The Pahalgam attack just accelerated the process and the final decision.
Asim Malik was the obvious choice for two reasons. First, his credentials include good links with the West, including the US and the United Kingdom, where he was trained. Ties with the US military are particularly critical at this stage, including for the urgent matter of crisis de-escalation. Furthermore, Malik and his ISI have recently gained the Donald Trump administration’s confidence by capturing and handing over Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) terrorist Mohammad Sharifullah, allegedly responsible for a 2021 bombing in Afghanistan that killed 13 US troops and 170 Afghans.
Second, the notion that Malik’s appointment is limiting “opportunities for critical evaluation of information and options” does not hold in an environment where the political government exists just in name. Thus, there is no point in adding to the complexity and buttonhole an NSA between a weak political government and a strong army. Malik certainly won’t face the same problems that some of the previous NSAs, such as Major General Durrani (retd) and Lt. General Nasir Khan Janjua (retd), did. Durrani lost the army GHQ’s trust, while Janjua never enjoyed the army chief’s complete confidence. The Shahbaz Sharif government, in any case, does not want to do anything that puts it on the wrong side of army chief General Asim Munir – who is not only in charge of defence and foreign policy, but is adamant on creating a new system of governance where the military has a major role to play.
Notwithstanding the poor state of the Pakistani economy, Munir aims to restore national confidence in the military. He wants to signal strongly to India that Pakistan cannot be taken lightly. It counters the impression left by his predecessor, General Bajwa, who, by his public admission, said that Pakistan did not have the resources to fight India.
The ISI chief, with the dual charge of NSA, has Munir’s confidence. In his previous posting as the Adjutant-General, Asim Malik was responsible for initiating the 9 May inquiry against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI)’s violent protests for Imran Khan’s release. He also oversaw court martial proceedings against Lt. General Faiz Hameed (retd) and disciplined the retired officers, who, for a while, opposed Munir’s appointment as Pakistan Army chief. According to some of Malik’s former colleagues who spoke to me, he achieved this by cutting off pensions and other payments to military families.
Also read: Who is Asim Malik, Munir’s protégé and now Pakistan’s 1st NSA in uniform
In for the long haul
Asim Malik also happens to belong to a blue-blooded army family. His father, General Ghulam Muhammad Malik, was a three-star general whose generation saw both military action and career advancement under General Zia-ul-Haq. GM Malik also mimicked Zia’s bigotry. Known for being highly religiously conservative, he would ensure that his officers offered prayers in a mosque and punished those who didn’t follow through. Professionally, GM Malik served as Corps Commander of the 10th Corps – reputed as a coup-making corps – and also as Director-General of Military Intelligence. Furthermore, he served as commandant of the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul. Asim Malik graduated from there during his father’s tenure and received the sword of honour.
All these credentials suggest that he may not retire as ISI chief this year, and hold the ISI and NSA posts together. Even if he does step down from the ISI, he will continue as NSA. In case of the latter, the army chief would likely appoint another trusted officer as ISI chief to ensure the smooth extension of his own term in November. According to the legal/constitutional procedure and as per changes in Pakistan’s Army Act, the president, on advice of the prime minister, will issue a notification that will add at least two more years to Munir’s term.
Of course, these are all procedural matters – which also indicate that Asim Munir must appear sharp and capable to the people. Cowing down to India is not an option for him, or even his institution. History tells us that army chiefs such as Pervez Musharraf and Qamar Javed Bajwa, who tried to adopt a policy of appeasement with New Delhi, didn’t last long. India is certainly the Pakistan Army’s red line, which Munir can only cross at his personal risk. The manner in which he handles the crisis is highly important, which, in turn, puts a lot of pressure on Asim Malik’s shoulders. Indubitably, the ISI chief will go to the negotiation table with a maximalist position – asking India not to fuel insurgency in Balochistan or carry out operations inside Pakistan, and put Kashmir back on the table. Water, too, will remain a critical issue.
Malik’s additional problem is dealing with a boss who isn’t known for tolerating contradiction. According to some army officers in his circle, Asim Munir is reputed to leave discussions that oppose his views. At this juncture, the new NSA will have the task of convincing the world that Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed do not exist in Pakistan, and convincing India of Pakistan’s ability to defend itself — a message conveyed during the recent Corps Commanders Conference in Rawalpindi. More importantly, Asim Munir seems adamant to retrieve his institution from the point where Bajwa had left it – doubtful about its financial ability to fight a war. While this may still be the case, it’s not how Asim Munir imagines things.
Ayesha Siddiqa is a senior fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
“The new NSA will have the task of convincing the world that Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed do not exist in Pakistan”! Wow! Even if both Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed do exist in Pakistan, as there exist so much of proof, Pakistan wants to convince the world that these do NOT exist in Pakistan.