All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is facing an existential crisis in its home state, Tamil Nadu. Having lost ten consecutive elections—including the 2024 Lok Sabha—to MK Stalin-led DMK and sitting out the recent assembly bypoll, the AIADMK has realised the need to take urgent steps to avoid a potential wipeout from Tamil Nadu politics.
Founded by MG Ramachandran in 1972, the AIADMK was ably taken forward by the powerful J Jayalalithaa. But after her death in 2016, the party split into three factions.
Edappadi Palaniswami, the leader who ruled Tamil Nadu for four years after Jayalalithaa’s death, held the famous two-leaf poll symbol and the support of a majority of AIADMK cadres and elected representatives. The other groups include O Panneerselvam (OPS), Sasikala (Jayalithaa’s confidante), and TTV Dhinakaran (Sasikala’s nephew who heads Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam). While all three are from the Thevar community, Palanisamy belongs to the powerful Gounder caste.
Now EPS, as Palaniswami is popularly known, has launched a drive to bring the splinter groups together, following calls from Sasikala and OPS aide JCD Prabhakar to unite MGR and Jayalalithaa supporters. At the meeting of party cadres in Chennai, EPS listened to their views on the poll debacle. Sources say those who walked out on EPS after the 2021 Assembly election now want a merger of all the factions.
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Last-ditch attempt
AIADMK is shrinking. The large space it once held is being taken away by either the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the DMK. The voting pattern of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections clearly indicates this migration and conversion.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK suffered a major setback, losing all the 34 seats it contested; on seven seats, the party had to forfeit its deposit. One could argue that the AIADMK today has been reduced to Gounder and Thevar outfits.
To prevent total annihilation of its support base, the MGR and Jayalalithaa loyalists recently formed a ‘peace committee’ to approach all splinter groups of AIADMK for a merger. The cadre wants a strong leadership to take their arch-rival DMK head-on.
But nearly all the four groups of AIADMK have been singing the same tune of pro-Dravidian culture, which ultimately ends up helping Stalin’s cause.
Dravidian parties have dominated Tamil Nadu politics since 1967, when the DMK won the Assembly elections and edged out Congress. What began with Periyar’s Dravidar Kazhagam has now split into roughly eight outfits. They stand in opposition to the domination of Hindutva and BJP.
Curiously, though, it was MGR and Jayalalithaa who first brought soft Hindutva ideology to Tamil Nadu. Jayalalithaa strongly advocated for the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution. These ideologically different styles of politics have, in a way, helped EPS and OPS, two dominant leaders from the Gounder and Thevar castes, build their politics against the Dravidian ideology.
But the two crore-strong cadre wants the AIADMK to fight MK Stalin and DMK in the same manner that Jayalalithaa did with great success, often trouncing the party in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
The AIADMK would be unwise to miss the rumblings within and not take immediate revival steps. Already, several AIADMK cadres have left the party after the 2021 Assembly polls, 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and the Vikravandi assembly bypoll on 10 July, all of which were won by the DMK.
An additional point of stress is the split in the camps based on ideology and caste. Gounder camp walked out of the BJP. But the Thevar group stayed back. And each is accusing the other of caste dominance.
Another split?
The 2026 Assembly elections remain a challenge for the AIADMK. If the ‘peace committee’ headed by MGR loyalists does not succeed, there is an imminent threat of cadres splitting again, which would mark the fifth split in the party.
There are whispers within the EPS camp that some want to align with smaller parties like the Social Democratic Party of India (the political wing of the Islamic organisation Popular Front of India), and the pro-Tamil, anti-Dravidian Naam Tamilar Katchi, headed by Seeman.
Seeman is a staunch supporter of the Tamil Eelam cause and had even met LTTE leader Prabhakaran in 2008. Will EPS be compelled to go with Seeman’s NTK?
Taking all this into consideration and analysing without bias, the future of AIADMK indeed looks very bleak. If course correction does not take place, then the AIADMK will break apart once again—only this time, those leaving may join the DMK or the BJP.
Unfortunately for the Congress, the AIADMK split won’t benefit it much since the ideological roots of the AIADMK naturally put it closer to the DMK. Moreover, the Congress has long been distancing itself from EPS by aligning with the DMK.
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Is there a New Delhi hand?
The answer is obviously yes. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, soon after the demise of Jayalalithaa, attempted to convince all factions of the AIADMK to merge, but no one responded positively. EPS was adamant. If the BJP proposal was accepted in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the DMK-led INDIA coalition would not have swept the state winning 39 out of 39 seats, and EPS-led AIADMK would have been in the Union Cabinet.
This makes the 2026 Assembly election extremely crucial.
For 66 MLAs and six Rajya Sabha MPs, an adamant EPS resistant to change would make 2026 a cakewalk for Stalin’s DMK. The fate of AIADMK would also leave the rest—Dr Anbumani Ramadoss’ PMK, GK Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress, and Seeman’s NTK—in further disarray.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)